Guatemala Faces New Chapter of Violence as Mexican Gangs Move in

International Crisis Group published a damning report on drug trafficking and violence in Guatemala, detailing the incursion of Mexican drug trafficking organizations into the Central American country, which it calls “the latest chapter in a vicious cycle of violence and institutional failure.”

The report presents a deeply damaged country, awash with weapons and penetrated by criminals on various levels, from common criminals to street gangs, mafia families, clandestine government networks, and international drug trafficking organizations, with “a population so distrustful of law enforcement that the rich depend on private security forces while the poor arm themselves in local vigilante squads.”

For ICG, Guatemala’s recent surge in violence has been driven in large part by shifts taking place outside the country. Over the last decade Mexican traffickers have gained control over the international drug trade while Colombian groups have declined in importance, bringing the focus of the business north, while in the last few years crackdowns by the Mexican government have left groups like the Zetas seeking new, safer ground to base their operations. These factors combined to place Guatemala in the eye of the storm.

The Zetas drug gang have made their presence felt in the country in recent months, massacring 27 laborers on a farm known as Los Cocos in May, before killing a prosecutor involved with the case and leaving his body in a series of plastic bags on a city street. For the ICG these killings represent a qualitative change in the situation:

The killings at Los Cocos and the murder of the auxiliary prosecutor marked a dangerous escalation from internecine conflicts among trafficking groups themselves to attacks designed to terrify bystanders and government officials.

The report also notes signs of progress, however, with the appointment of Attorney General Claudia Paz y Paz, who is pushing the creaking justice system to take on the threat of organized crime and tackle impunity, and the work of the UN-backed CICIG, which supports the justice system in trying to unpick tangled cases which often go to the highest levels of power.

For Steven Dudley at InSight Crime, the ICG’s report is missing some crucial pieces of the puzzle; it fails to examine the Zetas’ dealings with local drug trafficking organizations, such as with powerful ally Horst Walther Overdick, and assumes that the group have not yet gained serious influence in politics in the country. Significantly, the ICG does not examine potential links between Manuel Baldizon, one of the two remaining presidential candidates, and criminal groups. Baldizon is a businessman with investments in the northern region of Peten, where much of the economy is heavily infiltrated by organized crime.

The report calls on whoever wins the run-off election on November 6 to continue supporting the work of the CICIG and Paz y Paz, and indeed both Baldizon and rival Otto Perez have expressed support for the work of the UN-backed commission, while Perez has denied that he plans to remove Paz y Paz.

The results of an election poll published today by Prensa Libre put former army General Perez, a man accused by some of taking part in massacres of civilians during the war, ahead with 55.8 percent of the vote to Baldizon’s 44.2.

News Briefs

• Two Iranian men have been charged in the U.S. over an alleged plot to pay Mexican drug cartels to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador in Washington. According to the Justice Department, one of the suspects, Manssor Arbabsiar, is a businessman with dual U.S. citizenship, while the other, Gholam Shakuri, is a member of the Qods special branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, a paramilitary force charged with overseas operations. Arbabsiar was arrested on September 29, while Shakuri remains at large. Arbabsiar allegedly arranged the killing with a DEA source posing as a member of a “violent international drug trafficking cartel,” which some reports have named as the Zetas. More from the LA Times, WSJ, Washington Post.

• The Mexican government reported a large decline in the number of Central American migrants crossing the country on the way to the U.S., based on a 70 percent drop in the number of undocumented Central Americans stopped in the country. Some 140,000 were detained in 2010, down from 433,000 in 2005. The Associated Press reports that this conclusion is questioned by academic Rodolfo Casillas, who argued that detentions had fallen due to a government decision to stop raiding cargo trains to look for migrants. However, as noted in Thursday’s post, arrests of undocumented migrants on the U.S. border have declined to their lowest level in 40 years, suggesting that the U.S. could be seeing a real drop in those trying to make their way there via Mexico, perhaps discouraged by the ailing economy or by the threat of violence from Mexican gangs in the border region.

• The Argentine government has denied rumours that President Cristina Kirchner plans to change the constitution to allow her to run for a third term in office. She is currently in her first term, with a massive lead in the polls making it likely that she will be elected to a second term in a vote on October 23.

• An Ecuadorian court has suspended the sentence of journalist Emilio Palacio, who had been given three years in prison for penning an opinion column which called President Rafael Correa a dictator, following an appeal by his lawyer. Palacio is currently in the U.S., and says he is facing political persecution. The case will now go to the National Court of Justice in Quito.

• In more news on press freedom in the Americas, the Venezuelan governmentrejected 38 of 148 recommendations made by UN member states as part of the Human Rights Council, including points on ensuring freedom of the press and judicial independence. President Hugo Chavez called the rejection a “victory for the truth,” saying that the recommendations had been planted by the “Yankee government and its allies.”

• The U.S.’s long-awaited free trade pacts with Colombia, Panama and South Korea could be passed today as they go to a vote in the House and Senate, after passing the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday.

• Mary O’Grady at the Wall Street Journal slams the U.S.’s “shift towards protectionism,” and praises Mexico for its commitment to the free market. The commentator argues that “sensational press coverage of Mexico's narco-violence has obscured the exciting story of the changing economic landscape brought on by openness,” and calls on the U.S. to support pro-market voices in its southern neighbor.

• The New York Times looks at the plight of the Chilean miners who were so dramatically rescued a year ago today after 69 days underground. It reports that, despite their brief celebrity and the outpouring of emotion around the world following their rescue “the miners say that most of them are unemployed and that many are poorer than before.”

• Fox News reports on moves by Mexico City police to improve their image, with cops being given smaller beats of just one square mile, and handing out their photos and cell phone numbers to residents in an effort to build bonds with the community.

More Cubans Try to Make it to the US, Amid Economic Shake-Up

The number of Cubans illegally trying to reach the U.S. by sea doubled in fiscal year 2011 compared to the previous 12 months, according to Miami-based El Nuevo Herald, with some 1,700 either intercepted by coast guards or landing on U.S. shores. Including those who came to the U.S. by land, the total figure of Cubans illegally arriving in the U.S. was up 14 percent. According to the newspaper, this reverses a downward trend that has prevailed since 2007.

Sister newspaper the Miami Herald puts forward various explanations for the fluctuation, including growing problems with the island’s economy. It also points out that the low figures of illegal migrants in recent years could be due to changing citizenship requirements in Spain and the U.S., which meant that more Cubans could legally leave the country. Cuban blogger Orlando Luis Pardo Lazo told the newspaper that Raul Castro’s government might even be tacitly allowing some to leave, “turning a blind eye to some of the departures as an escape valve for the growing discontent.”

In an illustration of the trend, 19 Cubans were detained after landing a boat on the Cayman Islands last week, in the fifth such landing this year, according to local mediavia the Miami Herald. According to the report, many Cubans who arrive by sea at the British territory say they were trying to go to Honduras, with the intention of crossing into the U.S. via Mexico.

The vigorously pro-free market Cato Institute argued that the rise in undocumented Cubans trying to reach the U.S. is “yet another sign that the much heralded economic ‘reforms’ announced by Havana aren’t working,” and backed the idea that the government might be allowing more Cubans to slip away in order to relieve pressure within the country.

Raul Castro has instituted limited economic reforms since taking over Cuba’s leadership from his brother, Fidel, in 2008. In September 2010 he announced plans to make some 20 percent of the workforce redundant from their government posts, to become self-employed and pay taxes. He legalized certain occupations, including hairdressing and furniture repair, and allowed people to start their own business and hire employees. This came alongside cuts to food subsidies and rations, spending that the government could no longer afford.

However, these moves towards market reform have not sparked significant new prosperity in Cuba. A lengthy report from Havana by Intelligent Life magazine’s summer 2011 edition found Cubans frustrated with the slow pace of change, but with some private enterprises doing well under the new rules. Reuters reported recently that many people were earning significantly more in private enterprises, with wages up to four times higher than the average pay from state jobs, which is around $18 a month. According to government figures quoted in the report, the number of self-employed rose from 148,000 at the end of 2010 to 330,000 in September. However, the news agency noted that pay remained miserably low for many Cubans, and that the state had not managed to cut all the government jobs planned, due to an absence of other employment.

News Briefs

• A bloody day in Colombia as seven soldiers were killed Monday in an ambush attributed to FARC guerrillas in the southwest province of Cauca, while the government said that as many as 30 guerrillas may have died in an armed forced bombing of a FARC camp. The camp was located in Norte de Santander province, bordering on Venezuela, and 11 bodies have been recovered so far. Aerial bombardment of rebel camps is a tactic increasingly employed by the Colombian Armed Forces, and has claimed the lives of at least two top commanders of the FARC and forced the guerrillas to stay on the move.

• Meanwhile, Colombian prosecutors presented fresh evidence against the editor of a Stockholm-based news agency, Anncol, which publishes FARC communiques and is considered sympathic to the rebel group. Joaquin Perez Becerra is currently in a Bogota jail after being arrested in Venezuela in April, and is accused of receiving money from the guerrillas to fund the site, and working as the FARC’s representative in Europe.

• Peru’s new leader Ollanta Humala appears to have made another strong move, in what is shaping up to be a confident presidency, purging 30 of the 45 generals at the top of the country’s national police force. Simon Romero of theNew York Times reports that many of those removed are facing corruption charges. Police chief General Raul Becerra was replaced by General Raul Salazar, a relative outsider, in another example of Humala moving to replace the old guard of certain institutions. As InSight Crime has pointed out, the president, who is himself a former military man, seems keen to bring fresh faces to key posts in crime and anti-narcotics bodies. A notable example is his appointment of Ricardo Soberon, who has opposed the militarized approach to drug policy, as head of the drug advisory agency.

• The Washington Post reports that Belize, a Caribbean nation the size of Massachusetts that borders on Guatemala and Mexico, is increasingly being used by Mexican traffickers to smuggle drugs into the country. The Obama administration recently added the nation to its blacklist of countries used by the drug trade. Police Minister Douglas Singh told the newspaper; “We’re part of the funnel. Mexico is above us, and Guatemala and Belize are part of the funnel you have to go through to get to Mexico. That’s making a lot of legitimate and illegitimate businessmen here prosper. But it makes us very vulnerable.”

• The number of cholera cases in Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince has gone up three-fold in recent weeks, driven by the return of the rainy season, Doctors without Borders told the Associated Press. The Miami Herald reported in September that more than 400,000 have been infected in the country since the disease made its appearance a year ago, thought to have been carried by Nepalese UN peacekeepers.

• The Senate Foreign Relations Committee produced a report on social media in Latin America, which argues that it could be an important force in promoting democracy in the region, and calls on the State Department to do more to strengthen this sector through schemes that help the public become more IT-literate, and investing in programs that train software engineers in the region. Titled, “Latin American Governments Need to ‘Friend’ Social Media and Technology,” the report details the rise of Internet access and use of social media in Latin America, and the use of platforms such as Twitter by the governments of Mexico and Colombia, among others.

• In the latest update on the health of Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chavez announced that he plans to return to Cuba next week for medical tests.According to the Associated Press, the socialist leader, who has undergone treatment for cancer, spoke over the phone at a comedy show on Monday, telling the crowd, "The doctors told me my hair is growing, and I'm thinking of growing an Afro."

• Chile’s Supreme Court made a ruling that would allow the cultivation of marijuana for medical purposes, overturning the government’s withdrawal of a company’s license to produce the plant. Agrofuturo had applied for a permit to produce marijuana-based tea for theraputic purposes. However, following the ruling, the head of anti-drug body Senda pointed out that it remains illegal to produce marijuana-based medicines.

• The troubles of Bolivian President Evo Morales continue, as indigenous groups march on La Paz in protest against a road that the government wants to build through an indigenous reservation in Amazon region to the east of the country. They are set to arrive in the capital around the time of elections for members of judical bodies on October 16. Morales has faced a firestorm of criticism following the heavy-handed repression of the march in September, in a country which has a tradition of toppling governments through giant protest marches.

• The LA Times reports on Palestine leader Mahmoud Abbas’ tour of Latin America to garner support for his country’s bid for recognition as a state by the UN. Colombia and Mexico are the only two major countries in the region that have not supported the move, according to the newspaper. However, the president was warmly welcomed in Colombia, given a symbolic set of keys to the city by Mayor Clara Lopez.

​

U.S.-Mexico Gun Trafficking Scandal May See New Subpoenas Issued

Congressman Charles Issa told Fox News that he may issue subpoenas this week related to the Operation Fast and Furious investigation. This was a program by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) intended to trace gun trafficking networks from the U.S. to Mexico. U.S. agents allowed smugglers to purchase high-power assault weapons, some of which ended up in the hands of Mexican cartel operators. The most recent revelations concern a Sinaloa Cartel enforcer based in Juarez, whose arms cache included 40 rifles originally bought in Phoenix, AZ.

Issa’s announcement follows a letter that U.S. Attorney General Holder released last week, in which he argued forcefully against the “base and harmful” public discourse surrounding the ATF investigation. Republican critics say that Holder knew about the ATF program earlier than 2011, and have suggested he committed perjury, which Holder and the Justice Department has strongly rejected. Issa’s threat to begin issuing subpoenas indicates that the political catfight is far from over. So long as the investigation focuses on undigging Holder’s alleged misconduct, it’s unlikely that the core issues -- the problem of lax gun laws which allow hundreds of high-power weapons to end up in the hands of Mexican crime lords -- will ever be addressed.



News Briefs

• Students in Chile say they will launch a new round of street protests on October 18 and 19, reportedly with support from some trade unions. A reported 250 students were arrested during demonstrations on Friday, following the government’s move to strengthen the country’s penal code, which would subject protesters to harsher punishments. The movement appears to be at an impasse: the protesters argue that, in pushing for full state control and free education for all, they represent the majority view. Meanwhile, Sebastian Pinera’s administration maintains that some of the students’ demands -- that education be entirely state-run -- are unrealistic and represent a small group of extremists. Students say they will not return to class, nor will they return to the negotiating table with Pinera and his government.

• The LA Times takes a look at the problems assailing Tumaco, the southern Colombia port city (population 180,000) where the murder rate is nearly five times the national average. Tumaco is also one of the main recipients of U.S. military and development aid within Colombia; those looking for a critique on how that program is unrolling in Tumaco should read Adam Isacson’s report on the city, published by WOLA last May. The piece focuses on the growing problem of extortion in the city, which inspired a mass citizen protest in late September. The urban center is one of the few places in Nariño department nearly totally controlled by the Rastrojos criminal gang; the countryside, meanwhile, has a strong FARC and ELN presence.

• Four men were gunned down outside the Government Ministry in Guatemala City, among the most public acts of violence to take place near government buildings since last year, when four severed heads were left outside several public buildings, including Congress. The four victims, killed early Sunday morning, still had cash and IDs on them, meaning robbery is an unlikely motive. For a summary of a very specific type of violence in Guatemala -- specifically, the attacks and massacres carried out by Mexican group the Zetas -- ElPeriodico has a general tally of Zeta attacks seen so far this year. Of the 88 alleged Zeta members arrested since 2008, 75 percent were detained in 2011.

• According to the World Bank, Venezuela is facing 18 pending arbitration cases, involving foreign companies demanding compensation for having their property seized, their stock forcibly sold and their assets taken over by the state, among other claims. Another Venezuelan official says there may be as many 28 cases pending. Companies that have tried to push claims against the Venezuelan government, in connection to the nationalization of assets in the telecommunications and oil industry, have included ExxonMobile, Cemex SAB and California-based firm Brandes Investment Partners, which saw its arbitration case dismissed by a World Bank panel earlier this year.

• Argentina could see a landmark ruling concerning the covert adoptions registered during the military “dirty war.” The case is just in its beginning stages, and involves a young woman taken from her parents, killed for their alleged “subversive” politics, and raised by a military family. The trial could prove that such kidnapping of children -- with at least 500 known cases -- was a systematic effort by the military, done with knowledge and support of the Catholic Church.

• In other Argentina news, poll numbers show President Christina Kirchner is projected to win during the October 23 elections, with over 50 percent of the vote.

• Tim’s El Salvador Blog asks what U.S. foreign aid program, the Millenium Challenge Account, has achieved inside the country after four years of operation.

• Tijuana’s reputation as a cultural and tourist center continues to improve in the international press, with another largely positive profile from the Washington Post.

• The Strategic Studies Institute published a report on Mexico’s “narco-refugees” and the policy implications for U.S. security. The study considers how U.S. agencies should prepare to deal with a rise in asylum petitions from Mexico, and the challenges facing refugees who must prove they are unwillingly leaving Mexico due to drug violence.

• El Faro visits one of the most impoverished neighborhoods in Nicaragua’s capital and examines why transnational Central American gangs like the Mara Salvatruchas never gained a foothold here, even while common street gangs have flourished.

• Confidencial interviews political opposition leader Eduardo Montealegre; the conversation focuses on the upcoming elections and the state of democracy in Nicaragua.

• With municipal elections approaching in Colombia, La Silla Vacia visits Colombia oil town Puerto Gaitain, Meta, and explores how the oil boom has neglected to benefit the local indigenous communities.

• Simon Romero at the New York Times profiles Colombia business mogul Julio Mario Santo Domingo, who died on Friday. Domingo held holdings in many of Colombia’s primary media outlets, including Caracol Radio and El Espectador newspaper. He also had investments in virtually every other industry: aviation, telecommunications, banks, cinema and so on.

• In some briefer news briefs from over the weekend, Puerto Rico has rejected a U.S. Justice Department report on the failings of the island’s police forces; the World Bank issued a brief on indigenous populations and poverty in Mexico; the entire police force in a Nuevo Leon (Mexico) town was detained for links to organized crime; and Venezuela imitates a well-known policy used in Bogota, Colombia, and begins using mimes to control jay-walkers and traffic violators.

Assessing Honduras' 'Progress' in Establishing Democratic Rule of Law

As noted in yesterday’s brief, President Obama met with Honduran President Porfirio Lobo on Wednesday, the first meeting between the two heads of state.  Although Obama noted that “much work remains to be done,” he praised Lobo for his commitment to the "restoration of democratic practices.” Indeed, just by reading the headlines describing the incident (see Reuters’ “Obama hails return of Honduras to democratic fold” and Bloomberg’s “Obama Lauds Progress of Honduras on Democratic Governance”) it would seem that Honduras has witnessed a complete revolution in democratic values.

However, the large numbers of uninvestigated journalist and opposition activist deaths in the country suggest otherwise, a fact which was recently pointed out by the UN Special Rapporteur on Freedom of Opinion and Expression, William LaRue. As the AP reports, on Wednesday LaRue condemned the “government silence” over the deaths of over 23 Honduran journalists in the past 4 years.  Only three cases of murdered journalists have been cleared by Honduran officials, a fact that La Rue attributed to “a silence enforced by intimidation.”

In another troubling sign for the state of Honduran democracy, El Heraldo reports that the government has recently announced it is considering placing the military and national police under the same ministry. The two were separated in 1997 as a means of ensuring the political insulation of the military, but the surge in violence has led the government to reconsider. This is the latest indicator that the military is exerting a growing influence on civilian institutions in the country. As noted at Honduras Culture and Politics, the number of retired military officials in the current administration is higher than at any time since the country’s military dictatorships:

“Currently, retired military offices direct the Merchant Marine, Immigration, Hondutel, several branches of Foreign Relations, Health, Education, and the Honduran equivalent of FEMA.

The military also receive 70% of the congressionally budgeted money to protect forests from illegal logging, rather than the civilian branch of Forestry which has that as its responsibility.”

With the country’s murder rate rising, the reliance on the military in the country is only likely to deepen. But as the armed forces become more and more entrenched in the Honduran political process, it remains to be seen whether their influence will be an impediment to democratic progress.

News Briefs

• The United Nations has released the 2011 Global Study on Homicide, which lists Honduras and El Salvador as having the highest homicide rates in the world. According to the study, the influence of organized crime has led to an explosion of violence in the region, causing Honduras to witness a homicide rate of 82.1 per 100,000 people and El Salvador to see 66 per 100,000 people. By contrast, the next two most violent countries are Cote D'Ivoire in West Africa at 56.9, followed by Jamaica with 52.1. Despite its prominence in the headlines, Mexico had one of the lowest homicide rates in the region, with a homicide rate of 18.1 per 100,000.

• New acting director of the Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco Firearms and Explosives (ATF) B. Todd Jones, made waves on Wednesday when he acknowledged the existence of a Bush-era operation that, like the infamous “Operation Fast and Furious,” allowed guns to be smuggled into Mexico. While there has not been a major outcry in the U.S., some outlets in the Mexican media are outraged. La Jornada, for instance, published an editorial questioning whether or not the U.S. was an “ally or enemy,” and the head of the Senate’s Public Security Commission called for acondemnation from the state.

• According to the AP, four local police officers in a municipality outside Monterrey are being held on suspicion of having allowed the Zetas to use their jail facilities to hold kidnapping victims while they were waiting on the ransom.

• The latest issue of the Economist takes a look at a recent ranking of universities in Latin America compiled by Quacquarelli Symonds, an education consultancy. At the top of the list is the University of Sao Paulo, and the magazine questions the factors that contributed to its success, comparing it to major universities in other countries.

• The Washington Post reports on Brazil’s push to develop Rio de Janeiro’s favelas ahead of the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics. Although the paper reports that economic opportunity is increasing in the most poverty-stricken areas of the city, the fact that “several intrepid companies, a score of city agencies and even a few foreigners are wandering into the city’s once-forbidden favelas in search of opportunities” seems to hint at a potential for gentrification and economic displacement.

• Puerto Rico may soon vote on its political status. On Wednesday, Puerto Rican Governor Luis Fortuño sent a bill to the legislature that would result in a referendum allowing Puerto Ricans to choose whether they wished to see the island push for statehood, independence, or a sovereign free association. The referendum would take place next year, and would be the fourth such vote after similar referendums were held in 1967, 1993 and 1998. The Americas Society’s Mark Keller has an insightful analysis of the development, and on the likelihood of it resulting in a major change.

• The proposed Free Trade Agreements with Colombia and Panama cleared a legislative hurdle this week, with the House Ways and Means Committeevoting to pass them both. They will likely be voted on by the House sometime next week. In a last-ditch effort to bring attention to the reality of labor rights abuses in Colombia, WOLA’s Anthony Dest has written a comprehensive rundown of Colombia’s labor troubles.

• The AP has published an extremely interesting look at the family of Peruvian President Ollanta Humala. While polls show the majority of Peruvians support the leader’s center-left policies, the more revolutionary elements in his family disapprove. Humala’s imprisoned brother Antauro, whose Etnocacerista Party supports putting people convicted of corruption before firing squads, is especially critical.

Questioning spillover violence along the U.S.-Mexico border

An editorial in the New York Times slams Republican presidential hopeful Rick Perry’s dire warnings about spillover violence along the U.S.-Mexico border. Texas Governor Perry is a long-time advocate for tougher measures to secure the border, and in the lead-up to Republican primaries has argued that the region is “not safe,” and called President Obama an “abject liar” for suggesting otherwise. 

As the NYT editorial, penned by Judge Veronica Escobar, argues, Perry is not the only one guilty of playing on U.S. fears about Mexican violence to win political capital. An example of this was offered last weekend, when Perry expressed support for the idea of sending U.S. troops into Mexico, a suggestion that was roundly condemned by most onlookers, not least the Mexican government. Joining the chorus was Perry’s biggest rival for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney, who criticized the idea of deploying troops, offering instead the suggestion "Let's build a fence first."

As Escobar puts it:

Many Republican politicians — and not a few Democrats, too — use the bogeyman of border violence to justify exorbitant security measures, like the ever-lengthening border fence that costs $2.8 million per mile (for a total of $6.5 billion, including maintenance, over the 20-year lifetime of the fence).

Escobar argues that, rather than higher fences staffed by more guards, border cities like El Paso need smarter investment from the government, for instance, by training and appointing more customs agents to clear the backlog of cars trying to cross the frontier each day. For the judge, “a focus on a quasi-military approach ignores the need for real solutions to our economic and social challenges.”

While Mexico’s raging drug conflict does constitute a serious security concern for the U.S. government, there is evidence that counts against the idea of a “spill-over” of violence into the neighboring country. Violence actually fell in many border cities between 2008 and 2009, a time when Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s assault on the cartels had entered into full swing. In El Paso, just across the border from Mexico’s most dangerous city, Juarez, the number of murders fell from 17 in 2008 to 12 in 2009, and down to five in 2010. Juarez, in contrast, saw more than 3,000 murders last year.

Meanwhile, as a recent Wall Street Journal article pointed out, arrests on the border have declined to their lowest level in 40 years. This is due in part to increased security on the border, with more patrol agents, but the WSJ places more emphasis on the role of the declining U.S. economy, which is attracting fewer job-seeking migrants.


News Briefs

• Honduran President Porfirio Lobo had his first meeting with the U.S.’s Barack Obama, held at the White House on Wednesday. Obama praised Lobo as having helped to restore democracy in the wake of the 2009 coup. Both men emphasized the issues of organized crime and drug trafficking, as well as human rights, which the Honduran leader admitted was an area “we need to work on.” Some 16 journalists have been murdered in Honduras since the coup, according to the country’s National Commission for Human Rights, many linked to opposition groups, but the authorities have failed to resolve the vast majority of the killings, and blamed them on personal vendettas and common crime. To mark the visit, the WSJ published an opinion piece under Lobo’s name, which welcomed the end of the country’s “international isolation” and noted that the drug trade has contributed to the country having the highest murder rate in the region.

• The approval rating of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez climbed to 58.9 percent in September, according to the latest poll by Datanalsis, representing a 10 percent rise from the last poll, in July. However, six out of 10 Venezuelans do not want him to be re-elected for another term, according to the pollster. This suggests that Chavez’s popularity has been boosted rather than harmed by the news of his ill health, despite or perhaps because of reports in foreign newspapers such as Miami-based El Nuevo Herald which have for months been saying the president is at death’s door. Luis Vicente Leon, head of the polling firm, which is linked to opposition groups, said that the administration had handled the president’s cancer well, and that it had become an asset rather than a negative for his image. The site of Chavez playing ball to prove his vitality, and surrounded by supporters who have shaved their heads in solidarity with his hair loss from chemotherapy, could well have aroused an outpouring of affection for the president, who has been in power for 12 years.

• An opinion piece in the LA Times calls for the U.S. to return documents seized during its 1989 invasion of Panama, in light of the likely return of former leader General Manuel Noriega. The ex-dictator is set to be extradited from France to serve a prison sentence in his home country, and the editorial argues that the files will be needed by lawyers in the upcoming legal proceedings, as well as by researchers and historians. According to the article, the U.S. Army is still in possession of the many boxes of documents.

• BBC Mundo highlights the trend of Central American countries spending more on their militaries, driven by increasing violence brought by drug trafficking organizations that the region to transport their product from South America up to the U.S. and Mexico. This marks a departure for the region, where the end of the Cold War and the resolution of various civil conflicts led to a general demilitarization, saying analyst Adam Isacson.

• In contrast, Plaza Publica points out that more people die each day in Guatemala from hunger than from violence. The newspaper criticizes presidential hopefuls Otto Perez and Manuel Baldizon for proposing ever-tougher measures on crime while ignoring food security. Eighteen children die of malnutrition each day, while between 15 and 17 lose their lives to the wave of violent crime hitting the country, says the report. Luis Enrique Monterroso from the government’s human rights body told Plaza Publica that the country’s elites do not see hunger as a threat to their interests, due to the lack of a social contract between these elites and those who are starving; predominantly rural, indigenous people.

• Mexican security forces captured Noel Salgueiro Nevarez, alias “El Flaco” (the skinny one), who is thought to lead a group which works for the powerful Sinaloa Cartel led by Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman. He was reportedly captured, with no exchange of fire, in Sinaloa state. Salgueiro’s alleged group, the Gente Nueva, work as an armed wing of the Sinaloa, and are behind much of the violence in the contested border city of Juarez. More recently, their name was signed on a note left with the 35 dead bodies dumped on a Veracruz street, which threatened to clean the Zetas drug gang out of that southern state.

• Meanwhile disturbances continued in the Mexican resort city of Acapulco, as some 5,000 teachers marched to demand that the government protect them from exortion by criminal gangs. Some schools reopened Monday, following weeks of strikes by the teachers over the issue of security.

• Haiti’s Senate has approved Garry Conille, a former aide to ex-U.S. President Bill Clinton, as the new prime minister. The appointment follows a damaging five-month delay following the election of President Michel Martelly, with two previous nominations to the post struck down by Congress, and the absence of a full government blocking reconstruction efforts from moving forward. TheMiami Herald profiles Conille, a development expert with the UN, noting that some are suspicious of his international pedigree, seeing him as a man who may serve the interests of the international community rather than those of Haiti.

• Chile’s student protesters broke off talks with the government, with leader Camila Vallejo declaring that the authorities did not want to guarantee free education for all. President Sebastian Piñera has argued that fully state-funded universities would mean that the poor were paying for the education of the rich.

• Following in the footsteps of politicians such as George W. Bush, who was threatened with legal action for using Tom Petty’s “I Won't Back Down” in his 2000 presidential campaign, Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega has been asked by Sony Music to stop playing his version of Ben E. King’s hit “Stand by Me” at campaign rallies, according to the Associated Press. In the lead-up to the November 6 elections, Ortega’s campaign has been using a song titled “Nicaragua will Triumph,” set to the tune of “Stand by Me,” with a video including archive footage from the 1979 Sandinista revolution.

Congress Testimony on Merida Initiative Points to "Terrorist" Cartels, Dropping Cocaine Prices

During a Congressional hearing on the Merida Initiative, Representative Michael McCaul (R-TX) called once again for Mexican drug cartels to be formally designated as “terrorists.” “The drug cartels intimidate and coerce the civilian population, affect the conduct of the Mexican government and threaten the national security of the
United States. This is the very essence of ‘terrorism,’” said McCaul during his opening statements for the Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing on Tuesday.

McCaul first introduced legislation to designate the Mexican drug cartels “foreign terrorist organizations” in March. Since then the bill has stalled in Congress, and it’s likely to stay that way. If the U.S. government should list criminal syndicates like the Zetas alongside designated terrorist groups like the FARC and the AUC, it would create significant diplomatic tensions with Mexico. The other question is what would change, in terms of policy, if the U.S. began categorizing the Mexican cartels in such a way. McCaul argues that the label would make it easier to fight the cartels’ financial and logistical supporters. This is probably true, but would such efforts mean cracking down on the U.S. gun stores that provide the cartels with their weaponry? Such political challenges explain why McCaul’s measure will probably do no more than inspire more debate on how the technical definition of “terrorism” differs from “criminal insurgency” or just plain “gang activity.”

The subcommittee hearing also received testimony from “drugs czar” William R. Brownfield, who summarized the achievements of the Merida Initiative. Brownfield gives a run-down on the technical support and training that U.S. forces have given to Mexican police so far, including the creation of a criminal database which apparently helped identify the suspects of the Monterrey casino bombing. He also claimed that for every dollar spent in the U.S. on the Merida Initiative, $13 is spent in Mexico. The next phase of Merida will emphasize the creation of a new police unit in Mexico, known as MPUs (Model Police Units), meant to strengthen Mexico’s state-level law enforcement capacity, Brownfield added. The effort will compliment President Felipe Calderon’s efforts to clean up Mexico’s security forces, which includes a proposed bill that would essentially unite the municipal police with the state police.

DEA Chief of Intelligence Rodney G. Benson also testified, as well as Homeland Security official Mariko Silver. Notably, Benson stated that the price of cocaine in the U.S. is rising even while purity is decreasing, alleged evidence that law enforcement has restricted drug flow into the U.S. “Unlike in the past, we are now in the midst of a four-year period of escalating prices and decreasing purity,” said Benson. This appears to contradict previous findings by the National Drug Intelligence Center, in which the price of cocaine is depicted as having dropped slightly, suggesting that drug supply levels in the U.S. remain stable.

News Briefs

• El Faro has an intriguing, although complex, investigation into how the inner circle of Salvadorean President Mauricio Funes has changed since his 2009 election. Funes’ closest advisers include the three Caceres brothers, one of whom is considered the president’s unofficial chief of staff, another is the Treasury Minister. The article implies that ever since right-wing party ARENA split into two, Funes has spent more time listening to the dissident party leader, Herbert Saca, than the Caceres brothers, in partial recognition that he needs the allies in Congress. Another person of influence named by El Faro is Miguel Menendez, a businessman who runs a private security company and may also own a munitions factory and an arms import business, providing the National Police with weapons off the books.

• Coinciding with Monday’s submission of Colombia’s Free Trade Agreement (FTA) to U.S. Congress, Verdad Abierta reports on a study by the Colombian Attorney General’s Office which found that paramilitaries were responsible for 53 percent of all crimes committed against union leaders over the past decade. The FTA stalled in Congress partly because of pressure on Colombia to show progress in human rights, which includes investigations into the deaths of labor activists. The Hill reports that House Democrats may still try to seek to amend the agreement, in recognition of concerns from U.S. unions about losing jobs overseas. The Latin American Working Group, meanwhile, has an op-ed on why the FTA shouldn’t pass. From Colombia media, La Silla Vacia examines whether President Juan Manuel Santos kept up his end of the bargain, especially in regards to Colombia’s record on labor rights, a key factor for getting the agreement passed.

• El Universal reports on a study by Centro Gumilla, a non-profit with Jesuit roots, which examines political culture in Venezuela. The study, apparently completed in April, found that some 42 percent of those surveyed said they were “afraid” to talk politics with neighbors. Supporters of the Socialist Party are the most cautious about bringing up the topic, the survey said.

• The Associated Press profiles Camila Vallejo, the student leader of Chile’s ongoing education reform protests. The article examines how Vallejo became a symbol for the post-Pinochet Chileans intent on exercising their right to public protest.

• Yesterday saw the conclusion of a two-day summit at Stanford University on violence and governance in Mexico. Prior to the event, Stanford professor and former drug policy advisor Dr. Keith Humphreys prepared several graphs outlining the estimated revenue streams for Mexican cartels. Based primarily on research by the RAND corporation, the images are a helpful visual aid depicting just how little revenue is thought to come from drug sales.

• El Tiempo takes a look at the FARC’s alleged head of covert operations in Colombian universities, an Argentine based in Colombia since 2002.

• Inmates in a Venezuelan prison have taken some 200 visitors hostage, the Latin American Herald Tribune reports. It is the latest crisis in the Venezuelan prison system, following the inmate takeovers in two overcrowded detention centers last spring.

• Finally, the Christian Science Monitor has a brief feature on drug-education libraries in Mexico, most of them based in the country’s capital.

No Paramilitaries in Mexico?

As noted in last Thursday’s brief, the emergence of a group known as the “Mata Zetas” or “Zeta Killers” in Veracruz, Mexico has sparked concerns about the rise of paramilitary groups in the country. In a recently uploaded video of the group on YouTube, its members declared themselves to be “the armed wing of the people,” a “paramilitary” force which does not extort, kidnap or otherwise harm the public interest. In response to the media attention that this drew, the Mexican government downplayed the group, even denying that paramilitary groups exist at all in the country. From the Washington Post:

Mexico’s security spokeswoman, Alejandra Sota, said Thursday that there is no evidence that paramilitaries operate in Mexico — meaning groups supported by the state or powerful backers or composed of ordinary residents who seek rough justice.“We stress that [the Mata Zetas] are criminals who belong to a criminal group that wants to seize control of the criminal activities of another criminal group,” Sota said....In Mexico, vigilante justice is not uncommon, but it is mostly spontaneous eruptions against thieves, rapists and hometown killers.

However, while it may be true that the drug war has not resulted in the rise of paramilitaries on the scale of Colombia (a point which is excellently argued here by InSight Crime’s Elyssa Pachico), Mexico is not completely free from paramilitary groups. According to UN security consultant Edgardo Buscaglia, the country is home to some 167 paramilitary organizations, most of which are in the service of wealthy ranchers and businessmen. In a recent interview with Proceso magazine, Buscaglia claimed that their main function is to fill in the void left by the state’s inability to adequately ensure “life and property,” although some are on the payroll of local politicians as an auxiliary security force.

It is also worth noting, however, that many existing paramilitary groups in the country have an ideological component to them as well. This is the case in Chiapas, where paramilitary organizations sprang up in response to the 1994 Zapatista uprising and the movement’s subsequent nonviolent community organizing throughout the state. Armed groups such as the Organization for the Defense of Indigenous Rights and Farmers  (OPDDIC) and Mascara Roja have been targeting Zapatista-affiliated communities for years, generally with impunity. Indeed, adherents of the latter group were implicated in the 1997 massacre of 45 men, women and children in the village of Acteal.

For Calderon’s administration to claim that there are no paramilitary organizations in the country is not only false, but a slap in the face to those whose lives have been directly affected  by paramilitary violence in the country.

News Briefs

• Following the Calderon government’s meeting with Javier Sicilia's Movement for Peace with Justice and Dignity last June, the president himself called for another meeting to take place in three months. Now, according to EFE, it seems that he wishes to include other groups, proposing a “broader gathering in which other social groups would also participate.” The peace movement balked at the suggestion, and has canceled a proposed meeting for October 7. Sicilia, for his part, is fuming, and has accused the government of seeking to “dilute” the movement.  

• The AP has picked up on a development that many Mexico analysts have long been saying: Calderon’s security strategy has resulted in the dominance of two groups: the Sinaloa Cartel and the Zetas. As these two drug trafficking organizations emerge as the main forces in the country’s criminal underworld, some are predicting a massive government takedown of the two in the coming years.

• The Mexican Supreme Court’s ruling in July that opened the door to more military prosecutions is taking effect. On Monday the country’s military announced that it would be discharging two soldiers accused of kidnapping a 13-year-old girl, and would turn them over to civilian court.

• Colombian ex-president Alvaro Uribe has continued to distance himself from the “false positive” scandal, in which soldiers killed civilians and then dressed them in FARC uniforms, this time claiming that many of the victims’ mothers had admitted to him privately that their sons were involved in “illegal activities.”  Speaking at a political science forum in Bogota, Uribe also claimed that the phenomenon was nothing new, but that his administration had created a safe space to denounce the crime.

• Semana has an interesting piece on political campaigning in Medellin ahead of the country’s October 30^th local elections. According to the magazine, many candidates have been prevented from campaigning in neighborhoods around the city by threats from area gangs. The Green Party and the Alianza Social Independiente have been disproportionately targeted.

• In a move likely timed to coincide with Ecuador’s  push to improve its relationship with the U.S., Ecuador’s government has claimed that the media distorted comments made by President Rafael Correa last week that the U.S. has financed corrupt police forces there. According to AFP, in the initial interview Correa claimed to have no proof that the U.S. was behind the country’s police coup last year, but the comment was not published by local press. No word yet as to whether or not Correa will sue Diario Hoy, which initially published the story, for $30 million.

• Despite the fact that several of her cabinet officials have been plagued with a series of messy corruption scandals in recent months, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has seen a rise in approval ratings, reports Reuters. According to a poll by Ibope survey firm, Rousseff's approval rating has risen by 4 percentage points since July, with 71 percent of Brazilians supporting the leader.

• Peruvian President Ollanta Humala received an unlikely endorsement yesterday from ex-President Alan Garcia. In an interview with Peru’s El Comercio, Garcia claimed that the president was “doing things far better” than those who didn't vote for him expected.