Questions Continue Over Ortega's Landslide Victory in Nicaragua

Three days after the election of Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, questions continue about the legitimacy of complaints over voting irregularities. An observation team from the European Union said that Nicaragua’s electoral authorities “were not completely independent or impartial.” This is a reference to Nicaragua’s main electoral observation commission, the Supreme Electoral Council (Consejo Supremo Electoral - CSE), widely perceived as controlled by Ortega allies. The Chamber of Commerce agreed, calling the vote a “non-transparent” process. Also weighing in from the U.S. was Congresswoman Ileana Ross-Lehtinen (R-Florida), who called the vote a “farce” and made similar strong statements about how Ortega’s re-election represents a so-called setback for democracy in the region.

For a more balanced perspective than Ross-Lehiten’s, at Americas Quarterly analyst James Bosworth asks what may lie next for Nicaragua, considering the number of complaints, as well as the fact that the government limited both international and civil society bodies from properly monitoring the election. Bosworth examines cases of other contested election results -- seen in Peru, Venezuela, Mexico and Honduras -- and concludes:

“The government will want to move on with its next term; the opposition will want concrete actions that punish the government and reject its legitimacy. It’s up to the international community to look for where they can compromise to help preserve and build Nicaragua’s peace, prosperity, stability and democracy.”

According to EFE, protesters sympathetic to the opposition rallied in Managua Tuesday, but were soon broken up by police. Local newspaper El Nuevo Diario also reported on violence which greeted opposition protesters elsewhere in the country. Ortega’s closest competitor, Fabio Gadea, has rejected the election results, as did another opposition candidate, former president Arnoldo Aleman.

An editorial by Confidencial argues that Ortega’s political maneuvering through Congress and the Supreme Court, in order to legitimize a second run at the presidency, is evidence that the electoral process was marked by “irregularities” from the beginning. Finally, some perspective from InfoLatam and the Latin American Herald Tribune on the similarities and differences between the Guatemala and Nicaragua presidential elections.


News Briefs

• For more analysis on what the death of top FARC leader “Alfonso Cano” means for the rebel group, a spokesperson for think-tank International Crisis Group argues in Foreign Policy that it provides an opening for the government to negotiate a peace settlement. Semana notes that Cano’s death, so soon after the election of former M-19 guerrilla Gustavo Petro as mayor of Bogota, points to the FARC’s fatal error in choosing war over politics as their primary means of achieving power. The magazine also published an opinion piece by a representative from think-tank Nuevo Arco Iris, who argues that from the guerrillas’ perspective, it is in their interest to continue fighting for the next decade. One clear sign that the FARC may be willing to enter dialogue is if they move to release their remaining 21 political hostages (as well as an unknown number of hostages held for extortion). This will be a key development to look out for in the coming months. Meanwhile, Reuters gives a general profile of the rural population most affected by clashes between the FARC and government forces.

• The Wall Street Journal examines what the election of Otto Perez Molina means for Guatemala, noting that one challenge that president-elect faces is budgeting the cash needed for his proposed “iron fist” (mano dura) security policies. Guatemala has one of the lowest tax-collection rates in the world, making it tough for the government to fund ambitious security operations, the newspaper says. Plaza Publica, meanwhile, analyzes what the return of conservative, military rule in the president’s office may entail.

• Meanwhile, Guatemala authorities announced the arrest of a member of crime family the Lorenzanas. The capture of Elio Lorenzana, reportedly coordinated with the assistance from the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), is the third arrest of a Lorenzana family member since 2010, reports ElPeriodico.

• The assistant secretary for international narcotics and law enforcement, William Brownfield, told the Associated Press that he predicts drug trafficking routes will eventually shift away from Central America and back to the Caribbean. These maritime routes were most frequently used in the 1970s and 1980. Due to law enforcement pressure, trafficking patterns then shifted into Mexico and the Northern Triangle.

• President Evo Morales clarified yesterday that despite the restoration of ties between the U.S. and Bolivia, the Andean nation will not allow DEA agents to re-enter the country. Morales expelled the anti-drug agency in 2008, citing the violation of national sovereignty.

• The Miami Herald has a feature on Guantanamo, the “most expensive prison on earth.” The newspaper calculates that U.S. taxpayers pay $800,000 a year in order to maintain the 171 detainees in Guatanamo.

• Brazil’s labor minister is facing down accusations of corruption and may yet become the seventh cabinet official to step down this year, reports Reuters. The news agency also has some analysis on how President Dilma Rousseff may be benefiting politically from her perceived hardline stance against these corrupt officials. The Financial Times provides a brief timeline of the corruption scandals seen so far, several involving officials which Roussef inherited from the previous administration.

• Reuters examines the political implications if President Felipe Calderon’s sister wins a state ballot vote for governor of Michoacan next Sunday, a significant win for the PAN and a blow against the PRI if it happens.

U.S. and Bolivia Restore Diplomatic Ties

Three years after Bolivian President Evo Morales expelled the U.S. ambassador from the Andean country, the two countries have agreed to restore full diplomatic ties. According to a joint statement published on the State Department’s website yesterday, the U.S. and Bolivia have reached an accord which “establishes a framework by which the two governments will pursue relations on the basis of mutual respect and shared responsibility.” The statement also claims that the agreement was signed by Bolivian Deputy Foreign Minister Juan Carlos Alurralde and U.S. Undersecretary for Global Affairs Maria Otero.

As the BBC points out, Morales kicked out then-U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg in September 2008 on the grounds that he had been encouraging the pro-autonomy efforts of opposition leaders in the country’s eastern lowlands. In November, he expelled DEA agents, also claiming that they were involving themselves too heavily in local politics. While the agreement is certainly a step forward in U.S.-Bolivian relations, it is not immediately clear how it will address issues of political sovereignty, or whether drug enforcement officials will be allowed back into the country.  

Yet another unknown factor in the agreement is whether it will cause the U.S. to restore the trade preferences previously guaranteed to Bolivia as part of the Andean Trade Preference Act (ATPA). According to the AP, the program has allowed the coca-producing countries in the region to export thousands of products into the U.S. since 1991, in an effort to encourage small farmers to grow licit alternatives to coca.  The news agency claims that the loss of these preferences has damaged Bolivia’s investment profile and cost it thousands of jobs.

News Briefs

·         The New York Times profiles the work of the Cuban medical mission in Haiti, which was instrumental in identifying the cholera outbreak in the country and is now playing a key role in fighting it. Because of their efforts, local NGOs and diplomats alike are praising them for their dedication. Paul Farmer, the United Nations deputy special envoy to Haiti and a founder of the non-profit group Partners in Health, told the paper that the Cubans’ assistance is vital in Haiti, noting that “Half of the NGOs are already gone, and the Cubans are still there.”

·         Meanwhile, the AP has published an interview with Jimmy Carter, who has also been a major champion of the Haitian reconstruction effort.  According to the ex-president, not enough houses are being constructed for poor Haitians.

·         In response to a 2009 Inter-American Court of Human Rights ruling which found that Mexico had failed to prevent the murder of three women in Ciudad Juarez, officials from the country publicly apologized for their negligence on Monday. In the past decade, thousands of women have been killed in the city.

·         AFP reports that a lieutenant of the Tijuana Cartel has been caught after he opened fire on a vehicle carrying two of his rivals while driving through the northern city. Authorities have signaled that Juan Francisco Sillas Rocha, 34, took orders directly from Tijuana Cartel head Fernando Sanchez Arellano, alias "The Engineer." According to security spokesman Col. Ricardo Trevilla, Sillas' arrest will "considerably affect the Arellano Felix organization's criminal activities."

·         Reuters takes a look at the recent elections in Nicaragua and Guatemala, noting the influence of the Cold War’s legacy on both contests. According to the news agency, the victory of Ortega and Perez “underline the diverging paths the two largely agrarian nations have taken since the Cold War, whose ideological tensions forged a generation of politicians.”

·         Both James Bosworth and Greg Weeks offer some thoughtful analysis of what Otto Perez’s victory in Guatemala means for the country, with the former arguing that Perez owes his victory to his familiarity among voters and promises to increase security and the latter taking stock of the situation that Perez will inherit.

·         El Nuevo Herald reports that Peruvian President Ollanta Humala has publicly called on one of his two vice-presidents, Omar Chehade, to resign in the midst of allegations of influence peddling. As of today, however, Chehade has still not signaled whether he will step down voluntarily or not.  

·         The Center for Democracy in the Americas has released the latest installment of its 21^st Century Cuba research series, entitled “Cuba’s New Resolve: Economic Reform and its Implications for U.S. Policy.” The report details the economic reforms that have taking place under President Raul Castro, identifies the areas where more improvement is needed, and ends with recommendations for a more  just and strategic foreign policy to Cuba in the future. 

Death of the FARC's Leader Leaves Rebels' Future Uncertain

The commander in chief of the FARC rebel group, in Colombia, Guillermo Saenz Vargas, alias “Alfonso Cano,” was killed by the armed forces on Friday, in what the government has hailed as the biggest blow against the guerrillas in their more than 40-year history.

“Operation Odysseus” kicked off some days ago when the military intercepted a phone call between some of Cano’s close associates, according to reports, which allowed them to locate his hiding place, in a rural area between the cities of Cali and Popayan, in the southwest Cauca province.

On Friday morning the army began bombing the area where Cano was thought to be hiding, killing some members of his security team. Later, more than 900 Colombian troops descended from 32 Blackhawk helicopters and surrounded his hideout. According to the armed forces, Cano was shot that evening after refusing to surrender to a soldier who spotted him running away, using nightvision goggles.

The government claimed to have seized hundreds of computer files, in the form of dozens of USB sticks and hard disks, and several computers. These will no doubt contain lots of information about the inner workings of the rebel group, and allow the Colombian government to accuse various enemies of working with the rebels. Computer files found in previous raids of rebel camps allegedly contained evidence of FARC collaboration on the part of government critic Senator Piedad Cordoba, among others.

One police officer told the media details of Cano’s hideout, which he said was a “very humble” farm with a small bed, and computers that the guerrilla head would use to talk to his associates in other parts of the country using Skype. In the house they also reportedly found a pair of his trademark thick glasses, two boxes of false teeth, and his government-issued ID card. He had shaved off his thick beard, likely to avoid identification.

Cano had reportedly been driven out of his previous hideouts in the Tolima province by a series of attacks by the armed forces, and forced to flee west with a security detail of only 10 people.

According to the armed forces, Cano was betrayed by members of his inner circle, who could be in line to receive millions of dollars in rewards. Some of these alleged informants remain in the ranks of the guerrillas, according to the military. This could, of course, be propaganda on the part of the authorities to undermine the morale of the FARC.

It is not yet clear who will succeed Cano. There are several possible contenders in the FARC’s seven-man Secretariat, and commentators have pointed out that it may be difficult for the leadership to meet and come to a decision on who will take over. However, the FARC tend to have a well-organized command structure so it could be that a successor has already been decided, although the group did not announce this in their statement confirming Cano’s death.

One of the contenders in Rodrigo Londoño Echeverri, alias “Timochenko,” who, according to the Colombian press has been tipped as the next victim of a strike by the armed forces. Another leading contender is Luciano Marin Arango, alias “Ivan Marquez,” who is thought to be hiding out in Venezuela, safe from Colombian forces.

Jeremy McDermott at InSight Crime argues that Cano’s death does not mean the end for the FARC, pointing to the fact that the 2008 killing of second-in-command, alias “Mono Jojoy” was not followed by the predicted breakdown in command or mass desertions. While Cano was in control of strategy, McDermott says that Ivan Marquezhas long been in control of the day-to-day running of the guerrilla army, meaning that Cano’s death will not herald an immediate breakdown in the group’s operations.

Part of the government's thinking in killing Cano was not only to reap a political windfall amid accusations that the security policy had gone astray, but also to improve the chances of a negotiated settlement. Military intelligence suggested that Ivan Marquez was the leader more likely to take the rebels to the negotiating table than Alfonso Cano.

[...]

even before the killing of Cano, the government sent out feelers to the FARC in Norte De Santander, looking to make contact with Ivan Marquez.

The FARC have vowed to keep fighting, rejecting the government’s calls for them to surender.

The  Miami Herald looks at Alfonso Cano’s background, calling him “a bespectacled middle-class intellectual” who became the “chief ideologist” of the FARC.

The Economist points out that “Ironically ... Mr Cano’s passing may wind up delaying rather than expediting a negotiated end to Colombia’s civil strife,” as he had recently called for dialogue, and may have been brokering a consensus for peace talks with the government among the rebel leadership.

The WSJ says that “The news sent some Colombians cheering into the streets of this Andean capital.”

Colombia Reports looks at the chronology of the operation against Cano.


News Briefs

Guatemala and Nicaragua both held presidential elections on Sunday, and neither delivered many surprises.

• Otto Perez, a former army general long tipped as the front-runner, won against rival Manuel Baldizon in Guatemala, in what the Associated Press characterized as a case of “tradition trump[ing] rising enthusiasm for a youthful populist.” The NYT, by contrast, said that Perez’s win was a move into “both new and old territory” -- he is the first figure from the armed forces to be elected president since the end of the military dictatorship, but has long been a major figure in the country, and has been accused by some of abuses during the conflict. Perez gained 54 percent of the vote in the second round, to Baldizon’s 46, with 60 percent voter turnout, according to the AP. However, this does not mean the end for Baldizon’s chance at the presidency -- or for his pledge to bring in televised executions -- as Guatemalans have a habit of voting the second round loser into the presidency in the next set of elections.
  Perhaps the biggest issue in the election was rising violence and insecurity connected to organized crime, with both candidates promising an “iron fist” against drug gangs. Perez will now have to try to live up to his promise to halve the murder rate.
  The Wall Street Journal reports that authorities in Guatemala have opened an investigation into the disappearance of rebel fighter Efrain Bamaca, and the president-elect’s possible role in the case. Bamaca was reported killed in a clash with the army, but intelligence documents suggest he may have been taken for interrogation, and then later killed on the orders of Perez.

• Preliminary results from Nicaragua’s election seemed even more predictable, with President Daniel Ortega looking set to win a second consecutive term after having altered the constitution to allow his re-election. With just under 39 percent of the vote counted, Ortega had 63.95 percent, and his closest competitor, Fabio Gadea, 29.09. His FSLN party also appeared to have an overwhelming victory in the legislative elections, with more than double the number of votes compared to its nearest rival, Gadea’s PLI. Transparency International told the BBC that the process was “neither fair, nor honest, nor credible,” with signs of fraud and irregularities. Gadea told the press that he did not accept the results.
  Foreign Policy has a piece on the rise of “Ortega-ismo,” which says he may be “the most savvy left-wing firebrand in Latin America.”

• The Miami Herald has published a piece by Felix Rodriguez, a former CIA agent involved in backing the Contras in Nicaragua, who fought against the Sandinista Revoluation. He writes in support of U.S. ambassador to El Salvador, Mari Carmen Aponte, who was appointed by Obama to the position during a Senate recess last year. Rodriguez calls for her appointment to be confirmed by the Senate, defending her “stellar and unblemished professional background” against what he calls “gossip and unsubstantiated accusations.” These relate to her alleged ties to the Cuban regime, and a relationship in the 1990s with an alleged Castro ally.

• The offices of a newspaper office in Veracruz, on Mexico’s Gulf coast, were burnt in an arson attack on Sunday -- some 20 employees were in the building, but no one was hurt. This adds to a string of violent incidents in Veracruz in recent months, as the Zetas fight for control with rival gangs.

• A TV news cameraman was killed during a police operation in a Rio de Janerio favela, as the security forces held a gun battle with drug gangs. Another four people were reportedly killed in the shooting.

• The NYT reports on the use of teams from the U.S. anti-drug agency DEA in various countries in Latin America; “The D.E.A. now has five commando-style squads it has been quietly deploying for the past several years to Western Hemisphere nations — including Haiti, Honduras, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala and Belize — that are battling drug cartels, according to documents and interviews with law enforcement officials.”

• Also in the NYT is a report on the impact of Brazil’s massive economic growth on neighboring countries, with some in Bolivia calling it “imperialist,” amid Brazilian backing for the controversial road-building project that has rocked the presidency of Evo Morales.

• Mary Anastasia O’Grady has a strongly worded piece in the WSJ, in which she decries a “human rights swindle” in Colombia. It has been reported that some of those who won compensation over the Mapiripan massacre of 1997 had not in fact lost relatives in the killing. However, the number of those who may have falsely benefited in such cases is dwarfed by the mass of people who have been victims in Colombia’s conflict, but never received compensation or recognition.

• More from the NYT, in an editorial on Bush-era antecedents to the controversial “Fast and Furious” gun tracking scheme, which reportedly delivered guns into the hands of Mexican traffickers.

Cuba Announces Major Shift in Private Property Ownership

For the first time since the early period of the Cuban Revolution, Cubans will now be able to legally buy and sell their own homes at their own prices. The new law, which will go into effect on November 10^th according to state-owned newspaper Granma, is the result of the reform package announced at the close of last April’s Sixth Communist Party Congress. While limits on the real estate market will continue (the law only applies to Cuban citizens, and restricts people to a maximum of one permanent residence and one holiday home), the announcement represents a major shift in economic policy for the Cuban government. In the past Cubans could only swap their homes with government approval, through a complicated and highly bureaucratic procedure.

In spite of the sweeping nature of the reform, the jury is still out on the nature of its impact on the island nation. The New York Times quotes Cuban-American relations scholar Pedro Freyre, who claims that the new property law amounts to nothing less than a rejection of state socialism. “To say that it’s huge is an understatement. This is the foundation, this is how you build capitalism, by allowing the free trade of property,” Freyre said.  

Others disagree. The government, for instance, has repeatedly insisted that such economic reforms amount only to tweaking the system, with the intention of creating “More revolutionary and better socialism.”

The Wall Street Journal notes that the changes “are a far cry from former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping's call to the Chinese that ‘to be rich is glorious,’” often seen as the beginning of the shift towards a market  economy in that country.  The paper cites University of Miami-based Cuba expert Jaime Suchlicki as saying that the positive impact of the reforms will be limited. "There are not many people who have money to buy houses, and there are not a lot of houses to buy," Suchliki claims.

Reuters reports that state figures put the housing shortage at 600,000 units, and adds that many on the island live as tenants on other peoples’ property. With the new incentive to sell, the shortage may result in some tenants having difficulties finding new housing. According to the NYT:

“For example, if two families are sharing a home and one holds what currently amounts to Cuban title with limited rights, the new law says that the titleholder can sell and the tenant family will eventually have to move. Many Cubans say they are afraid that the market system will leave them in the lurch.”

More from the Washington Post, the BBC, TeleSur, and Cubadebate.

News Briefs

·         With Nicaragua and Guatemala preparing to elect presidents this Sunday, Rachel Glickhouse and Mark Keller of the Americas Society offer a tidy side-by-side comparison of the two elections, providing a summary of the major issues at stake in both cases. In Guatemala, the frontrunner status of Gen. Otto Perez Molina (recent polls show him leading 58.5% to 41.5% over rival candidate Manuel Baldizon) has human rights advocates concerned that his military past will give undue influence to the armed forces in the country. In Nicaragua, analysts have forecasted a likely win for incumbent Daniel Ortega, despite questions over the legality of his candidacy.

·         The Washington Post also takes a look at Ortega’s bid for office, noting that many of his supporters view their vote not as an endorsement of him as a candidate, but as a show of support for the economic policies he represents. According to one rural Ortega supporter who has received substantial support from the government, “He’s like a piñata. The money keeps coming.” For more on the Nicaraguan election, and on concerns about Ortega skirting the democratic process, see this excellent report by WOLA’s Maureen Meyer.

·         Honduras’ La Tribuna reports that 176 police officers have been detained and are under investigation for a myriad of offences.  The BBC notes that the move comes after President Porfirio Lobo saw heavy criticism for the release of four policemen suspected of murdering two students.

·         Meanwhile, InSight Crime’s Hannah Stone takes a look at the government’s recent decision to use the army for policing, which doesn’t seem to have made much progress. As Stone argues, it is unlikely that this measure will significantly restore the rule of law in a country which is “fast becoming the principal cocaine handover point for Colombian and Mexican traffickers.”

·         La Republica has the latest on the first major corruption scandal of Peruvian President Ollanta Humala’s term, which centers on allegations that one of his vice presidents abused his office. The paper reports that the Peruvian Congress is continuing to investigate Vice President Omar Chehade, and has taken him off of a special commission tasked with investigating corruption during the previous administration.

·         The Americas Quarterly blog examines the Peruvian government’s efforts to mediate a conflict between an American mining company and the local community over a $4.8 billion gold mine in the northern highlands of the country. As the posts’ authors note, the incident represents Humala’s efforts to fulfill a campaign pledge to emphasize social inclusion.

·         Although Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos remains widely popular in his country, the distance he has placed between himself and ex-president Alvaro Uribe is causing a rift in the ruling Party of the U. El Tiempo describes a growing division between Santos-aligned party members and the minority who still stand with Uribe. According to El Tiempo, the latter group is considering pushing for a more pro-Santos politician to become party leader. Colombia Reports and CMI Noticias report that the party has called for the two to meet in order to cool the rising tensions.

·         The Associated Press reports that a massive crackdown on three unlicensed radio stations occurred in Venezuela on Thursday. The owner of one of the affected stations, Kalor 92.1 FM, claimed that about 50 armed soldiers confiscated the station’s broadcasting equipment yesterday. According to the wire agency, the country’s government shut sown 34 radio stations last year, claiming that the majority of them had failed to revise their registrations or had allowed their concessions to expire.

·         The Washington Post compares the current political turmoil caused by the debt crisis in Greece to two separate case studies in Latin America: the early 2000s debt crises of Uruguay and Argentina. The paper claims that Argentine default of 2001, and its chaotic aftermath, is more in line with the economic forecast of Greece than the Uruguay example.

·         The latest issue of the Economist has been published, and focuses on Brazil’s efforts to use offshore oil reserves to fuel economic development and the risks associated with it. The issue also examines Nicaragua's elections, the issue of currency controls in Argentina and the recent cancer diagnosis of Brazilian ex-president Lula da Silva.

Abortion Stirs Controversy in Latin America, as in US

Bloomberg Businessweek looks at abortion laws in Latin America, in the context of the current debate on the issue among Republican primary candidates, pointing out that;

Latin America, home to the world’s strictest abortion laws, may hold lessons for U.S. Republican presidential hopefuls who advocate a ban on the practice.

[…]

The strict laws in Latin America haven’t stopped abortion and, in some cases, have interfered with life-saving medical procedures for women.

The magazine points out that women in the region have the highest rate of “unsafe” terminations in the world, at 31 per 1,000 women of reproductive age, according to the World Health Organization.

The article notes that Chile, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic have all moved to make abortion illegal in all cases, including those in which the woman’s life is in danger if the pregnancy continues.

The issue of abortion is currently under debate in several other countries in the region. An Argentine Congress committee this week took a step towards legalizing elective abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy -- it is currently illegal except in cases of rape of a woman with mental problems, or if there is danger to the woman's life. According to AFP, the Ministry of Health said there were nearly half a million abortions in the country in 2009, which Human Rights Watch says represents 40 percent of all pregnancies. The news agency also quotes a Congress member who said that 700,000 illegal abortions happen each year. The move does not have the support of newly re-elected President Cristina Fernandez Kirchner, who has declared herself to be an opponent of legal abortion, according to AFP.

In October Colombia’s Senate struck down a Conservative Party proposal to make abortion illegal in all cases. Since 2006 it has been allowed when the pregnancy is a result of rape, or when there is a threat to the life of the woman or serious malformation of the fetus. However, a survey released in September highlighted the prevalence of abortion in that country, at a rate of 39 per 1,000 women of reproductive age. The survey said that 99.9 percent of all abortions in Colombia are carried out illegally.

On Monday, the issue of abortion made headlines in Nicaragua when the country’s first lady personally announced that a 12-year-old indigenous girl who had been raped had given birth in Managua. The president’s wife called the healthy birth “a miracle and a sign of God.” Women campaigned on the streets of the capital city the previous week, demanding the legalization of “theraputic” abortion, carried out on grounds of health, reports EFE. Abortion was made illegal in all cases in 2006, and Bloomberg Businessweek identifies President Daniel Ortega’s support for the total ban as one of the things that helped bring the former advocate of abortion rights back to power in that year.

However, anti-abortion advocates are gaining traction in Mexico, where in September the Supreme Court ruled not to overturn a measure banning elective abortion in Baja California. Several states have passed similar measures since Mexico City legalized abortion in 2007, reports the LA Times.

The issue looks set to keep generating controversy. As Bloomberg Businessweek points out;

In Latin America, abortion is an issue that draws on strong emotions and is used as a political card in heavily Roman Catholic nations.

News Briefs

• A mayor in the west Mexican state of Michaocan was assassinated while on the campaign trail for the sister of President Felipe Calderon, who is standing for a position in the state government. According to the Associated Press, Ricardo Guzman is the fifth mayor to be killed in the country this year. EFE counts 20 since the beginning of 2010. Mexican media report that the victim was a close ally of the Calderon family. Michoacan is one of states most dominated by organized criminal groups, being the birthplace of the Familia Michaocana drug gang and its offshoot, the Caballeros Templarios (Knights Templar).

• Arms trafficker Victor Bout has been convicted by a New York court of trying to sell arms to Colombian rebel group the FARC. He was captured in Bangkok in a 2008 sting by the U.S. anti-drug agency DEA, whose agents posed as representatives of the guerrilla organization. The deal he thought he was making included the sale of 100 surface-to-air missiles, 20,000 high-powered rifles and 10 million rounds of ammunition to the FARC.

• Forbes publishes its annual list of those it dubs the 70 most powerful individuals in the world, controversially ranking Mexican drug lord Joaquin Guzman, alias “El Chapo,” at 55, up from 60 the previous year. Mexican newspaper Vanguardia called the selection of Guzman a case of “pure journalistic stupidity.” In more respectable choices from Latin America, the list features Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff at 22, Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim at 23, and Chilean President Sebastian Piñera at number 66.

• The New York Times reports on Mexico’s campaign to attract tourists to the country, and overcome the image of danger and drug violence perpetuated by media reports on the country. A new series of commercials features “hidden camera” footage of U.S. tourists riding in taxis after they returned from vacations in Mexico, and discussing their trips with their drivers. The subjects were told that they were being filmed for a commercial, and asked to sign a waiver. This campaign comes, however, on the heels of news that deaths of U.S. citizens in Mexico have reached an eight year high, with 65 murdered in the first six months of 2011.

• The first lady of the Dominican Republic, Margarita Cedeno, is set to run as vice president to Danilo Medina, the candidate of her husband’s Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) in the 2012 elections. Incumbent President Leonel Fernandez is blocked from running again next year. AFP reports that the selection of Cedeno is likely to unify the party, as Medina had lost to Fernandez in the 2006 primaries.

• In Honduras, the government of Porfirio Lobo has deployed troops onto the streets as part of a new operation against organized crime. The country is on course for the world’s highest murder rate this year, at 86 per 100,000 population.

• The Wall Street Journal reports on the first big corruption scandal to face Peru’s new President Ollanta Humala, with one of his vice presidents, Omar Chehade, facing congressional questioning over allegations that he abused his position to evict a group of protesters on behalf of a private company. The WSJ says analysts predict Chehade will be forced out of office to limit the damage to Humala.

• The latest poll from Guatemala puts Otto Perez on course to win the presidency in Sunday’s second round of elections, at 58.5 percent of voter intentions, to rival Manuel Baldizon’s 41.5 percent. Meanwhile the country’s electoral council announced moves to tighten security in order to avoid violence on polling day.

• The Miami Herald reports on Nicaragua’s presidential elections, set for the same day as Guatemala’s, in which incumbent President Daniel Ortega is set to win another term after overturning constitutional term limits. The newspaper says that the president “sits atop a growing family fortune and seems destined himself to become the founder of a dynasty as he steers his Central American nation through a modest economic boom.” Like other commentators, (see yesterday’s post) the Miami Herald points to economic largesse from Venezuela as having helped Ortega to stay popular through social spending.

• The Guardian reports on a Brazilian campaigner who has been fired from his job with the government indigenous protection service FUNAI, which helps determine policy on the country’s indigenous groups, allegedly due to his campaigning against a mega-dam project. Megaron Txucarramae told the newspaper that he thought the sacking was “political persecution” due to his work campaigning against the controversial Belo Monte hydroelectric dam.

Ortega Set to Win Nicaragua's Presidency, Again, Amid Concerns about Fair Vote

As Nicaragua approaches general elections on November 6, Mary Anastasia O’Grady at the Wall Street Journal questions whether a fair vote is possible in the country. The conservative commentator argues that incumbent President Daniel Ortega will not allow himself to be voted out of office, as he was in 1990, 11 years after dictator Anastasio Somoza Debayle was overthrown by the Sandinista Revolution. O’Grady warns that: 

Mr. Ortega doesn't plan to allow a rerun of 1990 if he can prevent it—by whatever means.

The WSJ points out that Ortega is constitutionally barred from holding a second (consecutive) term, and orchestrated a vote among allies in the Supreme Court to give the appearance that this barrier had been legally overcome. However, according to O’Grady, this is not valid, as only Congress can change this law. She also warns of opposition concerns that some of their supporters are being denied voter ID cards.

This concern about electoral manipulation is given weight by reports in the Nicaraguan press today of citizens protesting about problems in getting their voter ID. Also, local election observers the Institute for Development and Democracy (IPADE), as noted in a previous post, reported recently that more than 70 percent of electoral rolls they examined featured names of dead people. The U.S. State Department released a statement Monday expressing concern about the elections, saying;

We specifically note the Nicaraguan Government’s failure to accredit certain credible domestic organizations as observers, difficulties faced by voters in obtaining proper identification, and pronouncements by Nicaraguan authorities that electoral candidates may be eliminated after the elections.

However, despite the validity of concerns about the regime’s efforts to stay in power, it is also true that the Ortega government remains popular, partly due to its work to help Nicaragua’s poor. Even O’Grady admits that some of the president’s policies have given a measure of relief to those living in poverty in the country, though tempering this with the assertion that “Venezuelan oil largess has allowed the president to buy support.”

The president currently has 48 percent support among voters, according to polls, with a 15 point lead over rival Fabio Gadea.

The Tico Times points to the strong economy as part of the reason Ortega is likely to win, highlighting one government program which has handed out some 5,000 land titles to the poor since August. It highlights his personal popularity, tied in with memories of the 1979 revolution, as potentially being able to override questions about corruption and electoral malpractice. The site quotes Manuel Orozco, analyst at Inter-American Dialogue, as saying “At least 55 percent of the population says Ortega has been doing a good job, so the allegations that he’s corrupt, even though they’re right, are not an issue for the majority of Nicaraguans.”

Like O'Grady, Orozco also points to help from Venezuela as a factor in Ortega’s likely win, estimating that the Nicaragua receives $500 million worth of subsidized oil each year from its socialist ally:

for the past 15 years, [Ortega has] been respecting private property and doesn’t charge high taxes on the private sector. He was able to keep the country relatively stable during the recession, mainly by utilizing revenues from the sale of Venezuelan oil to pay for welfare services.

News Briefs

• The LA Times reports on how many children of immigrants to the U.S. are finding it difficult to access the middle-class lifestyle and professional jobs their parents hoped for, even when they are well-qualified. This group of young people, whose parents are foreign-born, are being hit particularly hard by the faltering economy and squeeze on well-paid jobs. Many find themselves working the same kind of unskilled jobs that their immigrant parents did, according to the report. Meanwhile IPS reports on how President Obama’s failure to carry out promised immigration reform has alienated the Latino vote, with many angered by programs such as “Secure Communities,” which, as noted in previous posts, has contributed to a surge in deportations, including of individuals without criminal records. One activist told IPS that the program, which involves checking fingerprint records for migration status, has led to many in immigrant communities being discouraged from reporting crimes. However, as the Washington Post and others have commented, the Republicans are currently pursuing policies that will repel Latino voters even further - this means that Obama has less incentive to try to appeal to this group.

• In more news on migrant communities, Mexico’s Central Bank announced that remittances from Mexicans abroad were up more than 21 percent on-year in September, to $2.08 billion. The sum sent in the first nine months of the year was up 6.64 percent on the same period in 2010. This would appear to suggest that Mexican immigrants, at least, are not doing too badly in the U.S., despite the picture painted by the LA Times.

• InSight Crime reports on the latest developments in threats by hackers collective Anonymous against Mexico’s Zetas drug cartel. Over the weekend, the group released a video warning the Zetas it would reveal the identities of their allies if the cartel did not free a hacker it had allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz. Despite reports in Mexican media that some members had announced the collective was backing down from the plan, Anonymous’ Mexican Facebook page was updated to say the plan was going ahead, and a form was put online for users to report Zetas collaborators, according to InSight Crime. However, as the Associated Press points out, “if the promised revelations materialize, they could be nothing more than common rumors or gossip sent in by tipsters or foes of those named.”

• In a sign of the risks Anonymous may be running by taking on the Zetas in Veracruz, eight dead bodies were found in a mangrove swamp in the Mexican Gulf coast state. The corpses had their hands and feet tied, and showed signs of torture. It is not yet known who they belonged to, or who carried out the crime, but other recent mass findings of dead bodies have been related to an escalating battle between the Zetas and rival groups, some representing the powerful Sinaloa Cartel, for control of Veracruz.

• Also reporting from the troubled state of Veracruz, The New York Times profiles the more unusual methods some are taking to protect themselves from the fallout of Mexico’s drug conflict. Many are now turning to witchcraft to ward off trouble, particularly extortion demands, which are booming in the climate of fear. “In the midst of the violence that has beset the state of Veracruz, new and creative forms of witchery for protection against extortion and for help finding kidnapped kin have become the leading demands from clients, local practitioners say,” reports the newspaper. Police and cartel members also use the shamans’ services, according to the report, but generally do not recognize each other when they cross paths in the waiting rooms.

• Also in the New York Times is a piece on efforts to move beyond short-term aid efforts in Haiti, with a report on how U.S. pharmaceutical company Abbott Laboratories is trying to set up a self-sustaining charitable enterprise that produces a peanut-based product that can be used to treat malnourished children. “If you’re going to see a transformational change in a place like Haiti, it’s going to take a strategy beyond philanthropy,” one Abbot representative told the newspaper. Meanwhile the Miami Herald reports on how the country’s coffee industry is getting a boost from rising global prices, encouraging Haitian farmers to move back into the business.

• Rio de Janeiro state legislator Marcelo Freixo has said he will flee Brazil following threats from militia groups. Death threats are not new to the politician, who has long campaigned against these criminal organizations, which are generally made up of former and current military police and members of the army, and control whole neighborhoods of the city. In 2008 Freixo headed a parliamentary commission of inquiry into the militias, which has led to some 500 people being jailed, reports IPS, including high-level officials. However, following the murder in August of a Rio judge who took a hard-line against the groups, Freixo decided to take extra precautions. He will go with his family to an unnamed European country, helped by Amnesty International, he told Reuters. 

• AFP reports on Mexico’s Day of the Dead, which it says has been combined this year with memorial services for those who have lost their lives in the country’s struggle against organized crime. Poet Javier Sicilia, who has been a prominent campaigner against violence since the murder of his son by criminal gangs, led a silent march in Mexico City to place crosses on an independence monument in remembrance of the dead. The LA Times also has coverage on events, reporting on the planting of one of the city’s main roads with orange marigolds.
  Images of the Day of the Dead from the BBC.

• Univision looks at the two prospective first ladies of Guatemala, ahead of the final round of the presidential elections on Sunday. The women, who share the name Rosa, were both married before they turned 18 -- Otto Perez’s wife was aged 17, and Manuel Baldizon’s wife was 15.

• The New York Times’ photography blog features a piece by Simon Romero to accompany Kike Arnal’s photos of gold mining in Colombia’s remote Pacific province of Choco.

Colombia's Notoriously Corrupt Intelligence Agency Dissolved

Yesterday Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos officially announced the dissolution of the country’s troubled intelligence agency, the Administrative Department of Security (DAS). The agency has been implicated in a number of scandals over its 58-year old history, ranging from illegal wiretapping to ties with paramilitary groups.

In October alone, DAS agents were implicated in a scheme which involved the sale of intelligence to drug trafficking organizations. Colombian newsweekly Semana gained access to the leaked documents, and further revealed that the agency had trained paramilitaries in explosives and helped orchestrate a car bomb targeting a prominent politician during the administration of Santos’ predecessor, Alvaro Uribe. Uribe’s first DAS director, Jorge Noguera, was convicted of murder on September 14 after the Supreme Court found him guilty of involvement in the 2004 killing of a leftist university professor.

All of the intelligence functions of the bureau will be passed on to a new agency, to be known as the National Intelligence Agency (ANI), by December 31st. The current and last DAS director, Felipe Muñoz, has claimed that the goal of this process is to “move towards a new institution with better checks and more respect for human rights,” but the effect of the DAS’s liquidation on the state of human rights in the country remains to be seen.  

As the AP notes, the President did not mention how employees with possible criminal involvement would be screened before being assigned new positions. This is especially troublesome considering that about half of the DAS’s employees will be transferred to the chief prosecutor’s office, where they will oversee criminal investigations.

Additionally, the announcement has been met with strong resistance from the intelligence community. Francy Villegas, director of the Syndical Association of State Security Servants (ASES), told RCN yesterday that Santos’ bid to alter the DAS is unconstitutional, claiming that the Attorney General had signaled that there is “sufficient evidence to suggest the existence of a flaw in the fulfillment of this act.” If the process continues, Villegas warned, the president may face a Supreme Court order to reverse it.

News Briefs

• President Santos yesterday offered an endorsement of Bogota’s mayor-elect Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla associated with the demobilized 19th of April Movement. According to the president, Petro is the best example of the benefits of demobilization, and his election sends a “clear signal to those who are on the wrong path,” presumably referring to the FARC and ELN guerrilla groups.

• In another apparent show of post-partisanship, Santos announced Monday that he will appoint the president of the Liberal Party, Rafael Pardo, to be the head the country's newly re-formed Ministry of Labor. As Semana reports, the move is also a stab at Santos’ predecessor, as the Uribe administration had previously dissolved the ministry.

• The Miami Herald takes a look at “political hackers,” many of which are affiliated with Anonymous, the activist hacker collective. In just the past year, self-professed Anonymous affiliates have sprung up in Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador and Venezuela, frequently playing key roles in social movements in these countries. As the paper notes, the governments of Latin America are ill-prepared for this trend, as they lack the technological experience of cyber security experts in the U.S. and Europe.

• As reported in Monday’s brief, Anonymous hackers in Mexico had previously appeared to announce their intentions to take on the Zetas drug cartel for allegedly kidnapping one of their members. Now, it seems that this plan may have been called off. Milenio reports that several Mexicans affiliated with Anonymous have now denounced the plan, known as “Operation Cartel,” citing the dangers associated with it. However, as the New York Times notes, Anonymous’ lack of a formal leadership structure means that some members of the group may go forward with it.

• InSight Crime’s Patrick Corcoran has written up a highly informative analysis of the FBI’s recently-released 2011 National Gang Threat Assessment, and its implications for the much-feared (but little-documented) phenomenon of “spillover violence.” The report warns that “US-based gangs and MDTOs [Mexican drug trafficking organizations] are establishing wide-reaching drug networks; assisting in the smuggling of drugs, weapons, and illegal immigrants along the Southwest Border; and serving as enforcers for MDTO interests on the US side of the border.” However, as Corcoran notes, immigration has slowed dramatically in recent years, and the few street gangs linked to Mexican cartels are not likely to spark a Mexico-style drug war in U.S. territory.

• Mercopress reports on the effect that Brazil’s booming economy is having on migration trends, as documented by Brazil’s Ministry of Justice. As official figures illustrate, two million foreigners are living in the country, of which 1.4 million are in the country legally. Meanwhile, the number of Brazilians living abroad has halved in the past five years, falling from four million in 2005 to two million in 2010.

• Just weeks after a UN report revealed that Honduras led the world in homicides in 2010, the AP reports on the country’s status as a major hub of the international cocaine trade. According to an anonymous U.S. law enforcement official cited by the news agency, "Honduras is the number one offload point for traffickers to take cocaine through Mexico to the U.S.” The issue is further complicated by endemic corruption in the country’s police force.

• Prensa Libre reports that former Guatemalan President Oscar Mejia, who has been charged with ordering genocide during his term in office, has been declared too ill to stand trial. He will remain at a military hospital as doctors continue to monitor his condition.