WikiLeaks Founder in Legal Limbo as Ecuador Studies Asylum Request

Ecuador is analyzing a request from WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange for asylum, after Assange spent Tuesday night in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London. Last week Britain's Supreme Court rejected Assange’s appeal against his extradition to Sweden, where he is wanted on sex crime allegations. Assange’s decision to spend the night in the Ecuadorian Embassy violates the terms of his house arrest, meaning he could be arrested again, Scotland Yard said Wednesday. The Guardian has live coverage of the ongoing saga.

In its official statement, Ecuador’s Foreign Ministry said its evaluation of Assange’s request would “take into account respect for the rules and principles of international law.” Assange has thanked Ecuador for studying his petition. One source told the Telegraph that Assange is in “good spirits” and has received a “generous and welcoming” reception at the Embassy.

Ecuador has never actually formally offered residency to Assange. In 2010, Ecuador’s deputy foreign minister issued a statement that invited Assange to visit Ecuador, and offered to process a request for residency if Assange wanted to do so. Residency would be offered to Assange “without any kind of trouble and without any kind of conditions,” the deputy minister said. But Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Ricardo Patiño were both quick to say that this offer had not been approved by the highest levels of government. At the time, Correa described it as a “spontaneous” statement.

Many media outlets have cited the fact that Assange interviewed Correa on his TV talk show last April (the interview was aired in May) as evidence of the “friendly ties” between Assange and the Andean country. Correa was the only Latin American president to appear on the show so far this year. One source told the AP that during this taping, Assange received an offer of asylum, although it is not clear whether it came from Correa himself. At the end of the interview, Correa told Assange, “welcome to the club of the persecuted.”

BBC Mundo notes that while Assange is widely seen as a promoter of press freedom and openness of governments, Correa has fought a bitter battle with the press inside his own country.

Salon’s Glenn Greenwald argues that Assange’s main interest is to avoid being extradited to the US, if he ends up in Swedish custody. This likely drove him to take the risk of breaking the terms of his house arrest. The US State Department has issued no formal statement on the afffair, with one spokesperson describing the matter as “a business between Sweden, the United Kingdom, and Ecuador.”

Ecuador was one of the world governments most affected by WikiLeaks’ publication of thousands of US State Department cables. Ecuador expelled its US ambassador from the country in response to a July 2009 cable, in which the ambassador described top-level police corruption and wrote that Correa was aware of it yet did nothing.


News Briefs

• President Hugo Chavez has a sizeable lead over opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles according to the latest numbers released by polling company Datanalisis, with 43.6 percent of voters favoring Chavez, versus 27.7 percent for Capriles. But as Reuters notes, Venezuelan polls have a mixed records of providing accurate numbers, although Datanalisis is considered one of the more reliable ones.

• In other election news, poll numbers from Mexico’s Reforma newspaper show Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate Enrique Peña Nieto extending his lead to 42 points; meaning there is now a 12-point gap between him and rival Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. A previous Reforma poll, from May 31, had only a 4-point difference between the two candidates. Reuters also has some general analysis on why the PRI may soon be back in power, although it is unlikely that the party will win a majority in Congress. During an interview with BBC Mundo, former president and National Action Party (PAN) member Vicente Fox said that he would be supporting the PRI during this election because he “doesn’t want Mexico to turn into Venezuela.”

• Before traveling to the Rio+20 conference, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stopped briefly in La Paz, Bolivia, and met with President Evo Morales. The AP reports that the two leaders signed a “memo of understanding” in which Iran committed anti-narcotics aid to Bolivia. The AP called it the “first military cooperation” agreement between Bolivia and Iran. After the UN summit in Rio de Janeiro, Ahmadinejad will reportedly meet with President Chavez in Venezuela.

• British Prime Minister David Cameron approached Argentine President Cristina Fernandez Kirchner during the G20 summit and told her that she should “respect” the wishes of the Falkland Islanders who want to remain under British rule. Fernandez reportedly attempted tried to hand Cameron a pack of documents, consisting of all the UN resolutions issued on the Falkland Islands, which Cameron refused to accept, reports Mercopress.

• 100 days after the Church reportedly helped negotiate a truce between El Salvador’s warring gangs, gang leaders say they are interested in reaching a “definitive cease-fire,” reports the AP.

• Just the Facts shares a map made available at a Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing in the House of Representatives, showing the most common routes taken by suspicious sea and air traffic heading to the US from South America.

• Southern Pulse with a new field report looking at gang dynamics in the conflicted city of Acapulco, arguing that the city represents the future of Mexico’s drug conflict, in which super-power criminal gangs are responsibility for the majority of the violence, rather than the big cartels. The report includes an interactive Google map showing which city neighborhoods are occupied by gangs like the Independent Cartel of Acapulco, and which areas are in dispute.

• The mayors of Buenos Aires and Sao Paulo, as well as a representative from Mexico City, signed an agreement pledging to mutually increase sustainable development projects in their cities, reports EFE. Mayors from 40 of the world’s largest cities are currently meeting in Rio de Janeiro, in an event parallel to Río+20.

• Latin American News Dispatch has a slideshow of an exhumation being carried out in the military garrison in Coban, Guatemala. A forensic team has discovered the remains of 63 people believed to have been killed in a massacre carried out by the military in the early 1980s.

• Panana has withdrawn hotly two debated bills that spurred two days of violent protests across the country, reports EFE. One bill included Martinelli’s appointments to the Supreme Court, widely seen as an attempt to ensure that majority of the Court’s 12 judges share Martinelli’s political sympathies. The other controversial bill would have allowed the selling of state shares in utility companies. Critics say this would leave Panama deeply in debt.

• Reporters Without Borders says that two local radio stations in Bolivia were attacked with explosives, in a town suffering a wave of aggressive protests against a foreign mining company. Several Bolivian journalists this year have been injured or assaulted this year while covering social conflicts, one indication that the government needs to provide better insurance schemes for the media workers who cover high-risk events, Reporters Without Borders states.

• The Council on Hemispheric Affairs profiles Ecuador’s Intag region, where residents have refused to allow foreign mining companies to develop projects in the area. While the area remains poor, many communities are surviving on small-scale agriculture and tourism projects which have arguably brought greater benefits to locals than a mining company would have, the article argues.

• The New York Times’ geography blog on the history of Ecuador’s borders, noting that capital city Quito was originally supposed to be the seat of government for an Amazonian territory larger than 500,000 miles.

• The Council on Foreign Relations’ Shannon O’Neil challenges a recent Foreign Affairs article which argued that Brazil’s rising economic power will soon grind to a halt. O’Neil states that Brazil has invested enough in social programs and other economic reforms, so that its economy is now no longer so vulnerable to hiccups in the global market.

In Colombia, an Ex-President Uses Twitter to Cling to Power

Since he left office in 2010, former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe has converted into the biggest opponent of his handpicked successor, launching fiery attacks on government policy via his Twitter account, and traveling the country on a permanent campaign.

The New York Times has an essay by Hector Abad, which says that, though his presidency “restored his country’s faith in the future,” Uribe has now become a nuisance, “tweeting and sowing trouble and rejoicing every time the FARC tries to assassinate a political figure or plants a bomb.”

Uribe held the presidency for eight years (2002-2010), winning important victories against the FARC rebel group and brokering a peace deal with the paramilitaries. After changing the constitution to allow himself a second term in power, he was forced to leave office in 2010 when a court overturned his attempts to get a third term. His defense minister, Juan Manuel Santos, took over the presidency, with Uribe’s backing.

Despite his close association with the Uribe presidency, Santos has shown his independence, pursuing cases against close allies of the former leader accused of corruption and of illegally wiretapping critics of the government. He improved relations with Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez, and is pushing through legislation that could allow FARC commanders lenient sentences in a future peace deal. In less than two years, according to Semana magazine, Santos “has achieved the impossible: a successful ‘de-uribizacion’ of the country,” carrying out a historic number of reforms and distancing himself from Uribe’s record.

This did not please the micromanaging former leader. After leaving power, Abad says, Uribe should have retired to his cattle ranch, but he instead chose to live in a police barracks in Bogota. “There, he can get together with officers, among whom he has always been popular for his harsh stance against the guerrillas, and dash off criticisms of his successor.”

Most of these criticisms are made via his Twitter account (@AlvaroUribeVel), which has nearly 3 million followers. “Mr. Santos has sold his soul to terrorists and Hugo Chavez, the tweets say, and is driving the country into chaos.” Semana reports that the former president has sent 10,000 Tweets in two years, or an average of eight a day. Many of these are innocuous, but some are head-on assaults on the government -- on Sunday, for example he said: “the government is imposing the election of Timochenko,” referring to the leader of the FARC. As the magazine puts it, “Uribe is doing the same as he did while in government: he lives on a permanent campaign.” He enjoys traveling from place to place across Colombia, and doesn’t care how big the crowd is or what he is giving a speech about, says Semana. “Practically everywhere he is met with applause and carried out on people’s shoulders.”

Abad blames Uribe’s invective for the recent reports that some retired military figures have talked of staging a coup. Though this is unlikely to take place, he predicts that Uribe will try to regain power, either through another constitutional amendment to allow him to stand again, or by running alongside a pliable figurehead, “This means that in two years we won’t be moving forward, but back: the election will be a plebiscite, yet again, in favor of Mr. Uribe or against him.”


News Briefs

• The NYT reports that global financial turmoil could cast a shadow over the Rio+20 Summit currently underway in Brazil, raising old conflicts between developed and developing countries and limiting donor’s ability to give aid or make new environmental commitments. Economist Jeffrey Sachs told the newspaper that the euro crisis would dampen prospects for the summit; “Europe has been the great leader of environmental action, but Europe is hardly functioning right now.”

• Meanwhile at the G-20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, world leaders are set to release a joint statement promising coordinated action to safeguard global economic growth in the face of the eurozone crisis, reports the AP.

• A Colombian police general who headed the security detail of former President Alvaro Uribe has been accused by US prosecutors taking bribes from drug traffickers. Mauricio Santoyo is suspected of protecting traffickers in exchange for some $5 million between 2000 and 2008, reports the NYT.

• Rio Real analyzes an interview with Rio de Janeiro’s security chief Jose Mariano Beltrame in which he says that social programs are not moving quickly or effectively enough to provide social underpinnings after police invasion of favela neighborhoods. One interesting point he makes is that failures in transport planning can help boost illegal groups: “If we have 5,000 people in a housing program and there isn’t adequate transportation for them, chances increase that militias or other clandestine groups will create alternative transportation.” It also gives some statistics on the favela pacification program: There are currently 23 pacification units installed, with five to come soon. By 2014 there will be at least 40.

• Bloggings by Boz notes that Peruvian President Ollanta Humala has seen his approval ratings drop to under 50 percent, with three recent polls putting him in the 43-46 percent range. This is due to the president’s handling of conflicts over projects to extract the country’s natural resources, as well as the ongoing fight against the Shining Path rebels. Boz says that, more broadly, Humala’s falling popularity reflects “a wider sense of disapproval among Humala's base of supporters over whether he is completing promises to improve the lives of the poor.” This week, Humala spoke out against a planned march of pregnant women against the Conga mining project, source of some of the biggest social conflicts in recent months, saying “It doesn’t seem right to me,” as El Comercio reports.

• The Atlantic Wire goes behind the scenes on two recent New York Times stories about Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, asking how the authors dug up such sensitive information without falling foul of the bloody drug gang. It says that Patrick Radden Keefe did not visit Sinaloa state for his in-depth profile of the group, instead digging through court documents and talking to experts in Mexico City. “Looking at the reporting from people who have gone to Sinaloa, generally what people come back with -- and this is gringo reporters who go up there and ask around -- they come back with color,” he says, pointing out that they run high security risks but do not get an interview with “Chapo” Guzman himself.

• The NYT has a story on the reverse migration of Mexican nationals from the US back to Mexico, driven by increased deportations, tougher state laws and rising unemployment in their adopted country. It says that many of these are children born north of the border, who have never visited Mexico before; “The result is an entire generation of children who blur the line between Mexican and American.”

• Newsweek asks if former Brazilian President “Lula” da Silva will run for the presidency again. It notes that the popular politician has come back to center stage after his bout with cancer, but says that regaining power could be difficult for the “living legend” with his handpicked successor Dilma Rousseff enjoying a successful premiership; “While Lula talks, his protégé is quietly reshaping policy and politics.”

• Colombia’s president has condemned the murder of a peasant leader agitating for the return of stolen lands, reports EFE. Jairo Martinez, who was gunned down in northern Colombia on Friday, was the leader of a group of farmers campaigning to get back their land in the Montes de Maria region. EFE quotes figures saying that at least 50 land activists have been murdered in the country since 2002. President Juan Manuel Santos has pushed through a land reform law which is supposed to give thousands of hectares of land stolen by illegal armed groups or economic interests back to its original owners.

• Borderland Beat looks at conspiracy theories around the former leader of the Familia Michocana drug gang, Nazario Moreno Gonzalez, “El Chayo,” who supposedly died in 2010. His body was never found, and a new, suspiciously well-organized splinter group quickly sprung up in the place of his decapitated cartel, leading to rumors that he faked his own death and now heads the Knights Templar gang.

• Mexican business magnate Carlos Slim is investing in recently nationalized Argentine oil company YPF and in European telecommunications, suggesting his business empire might be outgrowing Mexico, reports the Wall Street Journal.

• Anastasia O’Grady at the WSJ warns that Panama’s President Ricardo Martinelli could be moving the country towards authoritarianism. She says he is “out of control,” appointing allies to posts that should be independent, hinting he may change the constitution to allow himself another term, and possibly using public funds to win allies in Congress. Although “some might be tempted to tolerate him because he is not left-wing,” his undermining of the country’s institutions could open the door to Chavez-style leaders.

• The AP has a story on a man who earns his living by posing as superman on the streets of Lima.

Latin America To See Slower Growth in 2012: ECLAC

A new report by United Nations’ Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) predicts that the financial crisis in Europe and sluggish economies in China and the United States will take a toll on economic growth in the hemisphere this year.  According to ECLAC’s “Macroeconomic Report on Latin America and the Caribbean” (.pdf), the region is expected to grow by only 3.7% in 2012, compared to 4.3% the year before.  

The ECLAC report suggests that growth will be highest in Panama (8.0%) and Haiti (6.0%), followed by Peru (5.7%), Bolivia (5.2%), Costa Rica (5.0%), Venezuela (5.0%) and Nicaragua (5.0%). Mexico and Chile are expected to see moderate expansion this year (4.0% and 4.9%, respectively), while Argentina (3.5%) and Brazil (2.7%) have seen major drops in growth compared to the previous year.

Taken by itself, the economic forecast for the Caribbean is far worse off than the region overall, with ECLAC expecting Caribbean economies to grow by only 1.9.

The UN organization cautions that growth could be further affected in the region if the global financial crisis deteriorates, it could stop financial inflows to the region and cut off foreign lines of credit. This would have a dramatic impact on regional stock markets, investment, and trade.

For the moment, however, the region is experiencing record growth in investment, as detailed in another recent ECLAC report entitled “Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean.” (.pdf)  The report finds that foreign direct investment grew by 31 percent last year, which as Shannon O’Neil points out over at Latin America’s Moment, is “the most of any region and three times Asia’s growth rate.”

News Briefs

• The G-20 leaders’ summit begins today in Los Cabos, Mexico. AFP reports that the Group of Twenty’s leaders were comforted on Sunday after a pro-bailout party narrowly won  elections in Greece, and are hopeful that member nations will step up contributions to the International Monetary Fund.

• Meanwhile the New York Times points to the summit as a sign of economic progress in Mexico, which comes in the wake of slow growth in Brazil. As chair of the summit, President Felipe Calderon hopes to distract attention from the country’s drug war and focus it on his country’s low inflation, moderate growth and overall macroeconomic stability.

• The Washington Post examines the potential order of succession in Venezuela, should President Hugo Chavez prove too ill to rule or campaign in the upcoming October elections. While Chavez has several committed allies who would likely pursue his Bolivarian Revolution with fervor in his absence, none of them are terribly popular among Venezuelan voters, and would likely lose to the opposition.

• Nicaraguan authorities have arrested Colombian national Luis Felipe Rios Castaño, who they claim acted as a spy for the Colombian military. The arrest comes during a particularly tense moment between the two countries, as they are awaiting an International Court of justice ruling over Nicaragua’s claims to Colombia's San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina archipelago. Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos said he would launch a full investigation into the incident. 

• Officials in Paraguay have arrested nine landless farmers after six police officers were killed in clashes in the east of the country. The BBC reports that the police were attempting to evict the some 100 farmers from land they had claimed last month. Locals claim that 11 civilians were killed in the clashes, but officials have not confirmed this.

• US government data for fiscal year 2012 suggests that the number of Cubans trying to reach the US has increased compared to the prior fiscal year, according to the Miami Herald. From October 11, 2011 to last week, some 8,200 undocumented Cubans had been intercepted at sea or arrived at border checkpoints.

• El Nuevo Herald profiles the truce between rival street gangs in El Salvador that has contributed to a massive reduction in violence,  and has now lasted for 100 days. El Salvador’s ContraPunto has an interesting interview with an MS-13 member known as “Baby,” who says that most gang members have a real interest in building a better life for themselves and their families.

• While President Barack Obama’s recently issued stay on deportations saw widespread praise, he has also been criticized for not announcing the move sooner. The AP reports on this criticism, and on frustration among recently-deported youths.

Peña Nieto Picks Colombia Top Cop as Security Advisor

 Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) presidential candidate Enrique Peña Nieto will hire former top Colombian police chief Oscar Naranjo as a security advisor. One theory is that the Naranjo pick is intended to ease US fears that Peña Nieto will take a “soft” approach to Mexico’s war on organized crime, after Peña Nieto commented that his security strategy would not place as much emphasis on drug seizures and the arrests of drug capos.

“It is important to show to the United States and the rest of Latin America we are 200 percent committed to the fight against organized crime,” one campaign advisor told the Washington Post.  “We are bringing in the best cop in the world to help us, an outsider who can offer new perspectives, who has a proven record of success.” Foreign Policy in Focus offers some more background on what Peña Nieto has previously said about Mexico’s relationship with the US when fighting the drug war.

Because Naranjo’s hiring as a security advisor was timed just two weeks before the July 1 elections, it was obviously intended to have the maximum effect in convincing uncertain voters that Peña Nieto was the strongest bet on security issues. It is also not clear just how much time Naranjo will dedicate to his new role. He told the AP that starting in July, he will divide his time between Mexico, where he might also accept a teaching position in Mexico City, and Washington D.C., where he will work as a part-time consultant for the Inter-American Development Bank.

Naranjo was a pioneer of setting up police intelligence work against drug trafficking in Colombia. Since he became police director in 2007, nearly all of Colombia’s major drug lords have been killed or captured. When Washington cites Colombia’s security advances as an example for the rest of the region, they are implicitly pointing to the professionalization of its police force, which Naranjo can take credit for. If the police had suffered a scandal as widespread and damaging as the “false positives” scandal faced by the military, it is possible that Naranjo’s image would have less of a glow. In the most recent “false positives” case, 15 soldiers, including a former battalion commander, are to stand trial for allegedly killing six civilians and presenting their bodies as rebels killed in combat, the Attorney General’s Office said Thursday.

Peña Nieto’s debate performances and his campaign in general has failed in delivering a “knock-out punch,” according to the Economist’s analysis; the decision to hire Naranjo could be just that. And as the LA Times reports, with violence appearing to escalate before the election, the best way for Peña Nieto to attract independent or undecided voters could be by presenting himself as the safest bet for Mexico’s security.

Peña Nieto took Naranjo on board his campaign just as a new video reminded many Mexicans of the corruption within their local police force. The video depicts five police officers entering a hotel and kidnapping three men, who were later found dead, reports the AP. Several other political films, released just before the election, may serve as a reminder of the PRI’s authoritarian past, making the timing of Peña Nieto’s Naranjo pick all the more effective. And the murder of a journalist in Veracruz, the fifth to be killed so far this year in the state, came as another reminder of Mexico’s incredible security challenges, which now fall partly on Naranjo’s shoulders.


News Briefs

• Thursday, Colombia’s Senate voted overwhelmingly in favor of a law that allows for softer prison sentences for guerrilla leaders, should they confess their crimes under the framework of a peace deal. The law faced heated debate in Congress for eight months, but finally passed with 65 senators voting in favor, and just three against. As Semana reports, one of the main backers of the law, Congressman Roy Barreras called it “the key for peace.” La Silla Vacia argues that with the passing of the so-called “Legal Framework for Peace” is President Juan Manuel Santos’ definitive break from former President Uribe’s “Democratic Security” policy. Meanwhile, the Chamber of Representatives approved a series of sweeping reforms to the judicial system, which will place a judge in every municipality in the country. 

• Thursday saw the 30th anniversary of the end of the Falklands Islands conflict. Before a UN committee, President Cristina Kirchner argued in favor of “talks” about Argentina’s claim to the British territory, Al Jazeera reports. This was only one part of Kirchner’s media campaign; she also took out an ad in the Guardian in which she called the Falklands "an anachronistic colonial case in the South Atlantic.” The Falklanders are supposed to vote in a referendum next year about whether or not they should keep British rule, one poll reportedly shows that 96 percent of the island’s 3,000 inhabitants will vote in favor of doing so. Mercopress has perspective on the anniversary from a Falklands Islands resident. 

• After a two-year battle in Congress, the US ambassador to El Salvador finally saw her appointment approved. Neverthless, 37 Republican senators still voted against the confirmation of Maria Carmen Aponte, whose nomination faced endless delays because Republicans wanted more information on a past romance she had with a Cuban-born insurance salesman, reports Foreign Policy. It is likely that her nomination was approved now thanks to election year politics, writes Tim’s El Salvador Blog. The Latin American Herald Tribune printed President Obama’s statement regarding the confirmation. 

• Jamaica’s governing party the People’s National Party (PNP) acknowledged receiving $1 million in donations from an infamous Ponzi scheme banker, reports the AP. The donation was spent during the 2007 election campaign, the PNP said. Opposition party the Jamaica Labor Party has not yet confirmed whether they received $5 million in donations from the banker, currently serving time in a US prison. These allegations emerged shortly after the government announced it was backing a new crackdown on lottery scammers, who cheat victims out of hundreds of millions of dollars each year. 

• The ongoing violent anti-mining protests in Peru are partly spurred by the lack of investment and development in mining regions, because instead of spending the money that local governments earn from mining royalties, the local governments are just sitting on it, reports Reuters. According to the article, several years ago Lima tried to redistribute the profits earned from the taxes paid by foreign mining companies, giving local governments more power to decide what to do with the money. Now there may be as much as $3.5 billion collected over the last decade, funds which could be better spent on badly needed infrastructure projects in Peru’s impoverished mining regions, Reuters’ analysis finds.

• The Economist on a plan by President Dilma Rousseff to make the salaries of politicians and bureaucrats public by the end of June. Brazilian Congress is currently believed to spend some $2.9 billion a year on staff salaries. The new print edition of the magazine also has analysis of security efforts in Honduras. 

• A mayor in the US state of New Mexico was sentenced to 51 months in prison for conspiring to smuggle firearms to Mexico, reports Reuters. The mayor was arrested last year, alongside the town police chief, for plotting to buy about 200 guns to export south of the border. The case was emblematic of tensions between Mexico and the US about US gun policy, which allows for “straw buyers” like the New Mexico mayor to purchase guns that are later funneled to Mexican criminal groups. 

• The Council on Hemispheric Affairs critiques the Amnesty Act recently passed in Suriname, which would basically grant the controversial President Desi Bouterse immunity from being prosecuted for abuses committed during his guerrilla and military dictator past. Bouterse, who has been convicted of drug trafficking in the Netherlands, is a military strongman who has confessed to ordering several massacres during Suriname’s 1986-1992 civil war. 

• The LA Times talks to Mexican residents in the US about their views of Mexico’s presidential election. 

• A long piece by Tablet magazine examines the prevalence of anti-semitism in Venezuela’s presidential campaign, as opposition candidate Henrique Capriles has Jewish roots.

Rio+20 Raises Questions of Sustainability in Brazil and Beyond

The United Nation’s largest ever conference, the Rio+20,  kicked off Wednesday in Rio de Janeiro. 50,000 delegates are expected to attend, including government representatives, UN delegates, environmental and indigenous groups. The main conference takes place between June 20-22, but this week will see a series of conferences on conservation and environment-related themes. IPS with a look at some of the indigenous groups that will be attending, and their perspective of the conference.

As the AFP reports, the conference formally began before the UN was able to finish the official summit charter, which was supposed to describe the meeting's main goals. The expectation is that these goals on climate change and food security should largely replace the Millenium Development goals which expire in 2016, but it looks as though the pre-summit negotiations in New York failed to come to much of a consensus. Boz describes the declaration document as 81 pages “of vague diplospeak that rarely commits anyone to concrete actions.”

Rio+20 is also supposed to serve as an important test of Rio de Janeiro’s ability to host such mega-events. The choice of Rio de Janeiro as the host city also makes sense, given the conference’s main themes of sustainability and the environment. For some observers Brazil is symbolic of a developing country struggling to face these challenges. Via the Christian Science Monitor’s Latin America blog, blogger Riogringa has a round-up of what Brazil’s environmental policy currently looks like, from the controversial Forest Code, which critics say could encourage deforestation if made into law, to the country’s complex relationship with the Amazon territory. She notes that while according to a recent survey, only 22 percent of Brazilians say they actually know what Rio+20 is about, other poll numbers show that more Brazilians are concerned about the environment and taking action to protect it.

The Monitor has another special series on the sustainability conference, looking at other mega-cities around the world that are struggling to become sustainable, from Rio de Janeiro to Mexico City. The Monitor’s report from Mexico focuses on water shortages in poor urban communities, noting that expanding a functioning water and sanitation system is already a big challenge in Latin America and likely only to become more difficult.

Brazil’s hosting of the UN conference has also been cited as evidence of the country’s growing economic and political clout. But there are a couple signs that Brazil’s apparent “renaissance” has a couple of cracks in it. The AP argues that Brazil’s economy is actually growing much more slowly compared to the other BRIC countries, reportedly only growing by 2.7 percent last year, compared to 7.5 percent in 2010. And Al Jazeera has a new video report about the slow-going as Rio preps for the 2014 World Cup.

Alongside Rio+20, a parallel mega-UN conference is the G20 summit, set to be hosted in Los Cabos, Mexico, on June 18-19. President Felipe Calderon has taken the lead in outlining the agenda for the conference, which some activist groups says has already been hijacked by “private interests,” reports IPS.

US President Barack Obama and the US Treasury Secretary will attend the G20 meeting, while Secretary of State Hilary Clinton will attend Rio+20. The Latin American Herald Tribune has a list of the other US government officials who will be in Rio this week.


News Briefs

• Congressional Research Service (CRS) has two new reports on Mexico. One examines migration, and concludes by citing the 2001 framework agreement between former presidents George W. Bush and Vicente Fox (which proposed creating a temporary worker program for Mexico) as an example of an effective way to control unauthorized migration. But it warns that forging a similar agreement would require a “high level of mutual trust” between the two countries, and some US policymakers could question whether Mexico is a reliable partner. The second report looks at Mexico’s criminal violence, and provides a useful summary of the major trends currently driving the conflict.

• The Wall Street Journal interviews President Calderon about his political legacy, focusing on security issues. Calderon praised the 12 percent drop in drug-related murders seen so far in 2012, and added, “Violence is coming down, although we obviously can't claim victory yet."

• Leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said that he will respect the outcome of the July 1 vote, perhaps trying to ease fears that in case of a loss, he would call for large-scale protests as happened during the 2006 elections. Meanwhile, BBC Mundo examines the role that television might have played in influencing Mexico’s presidential election, noting that Televisa, the country’s largest TV network, has long been accused of harboring a bias towards the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). The Guardian’s Comment is Free section makes a similar argument that Televisa’s coverage has been slanted favorably towards PRI candidate Enrique Peña Nieto. El Salvadoran media site El Faro also weighs in on the Mexican presidential race, criticizing the candidates for failing to articulate more specific positions about Mexico’s organized crime and insecurity, which continue to disproportionately affect Central American countries.

• One of Trinidad’s most controversial public figures, Islamist group leader Yasin Abu Bakr, is on trial for controversial statements made during a sermon at his mosque in 2005, reports the AP. The AP describes Abu Bakr as having played a key role in Trinidad’s violent 1990 coup attempt. His militant group,  the Jamaat al-Muslimeen, has been implicated in other cases of terrorism and organized crime.

• A Peruvian mayor arrested for allegedly inciting anti-mining protests in Espinar province has been released, reports Dow Jones newswires. Espinar has been rocked by violent protests the past several weeks against a proposed mining project which environmental activists say will do irreparable damage to local water supplies. In one concession to the protestors, the Swiss mining company backing the project said they were willing to commission a new study about potential environmental damage, reports EFE. Elsewhere, Toward Freedom has an on-the-ground look at another mining conflict currently playing out near the northern Ecuadorian border.

• President Hugo Chavez said that Venezuela is producing drones and assembling Kalashnikov assault rifles with aid from Russia, reports the AP. Bloggings by Boz argues that his claims about the assault rifles should be much more preoccupying than the drones, adding, “Drones are new and exciting to talk about, but small arms and light weapons remain the much larger threat to the hemisphere's security.”

• Because so many young Paraguayans are citing conscientious objection as a reason not to fulfill their compulsory military service, some policymakers say that Paraguay’s army has become too small to properly protect its borders, reports El Nuevo Herald. This is fuelling one proposal in Congress that Paraguay establish a permanent military body responsible for frontier security.

• Just ahead of Thursday’s anniversary of Argentina’s surrender to Britain during the Falkland Islands conflict, the Wall Street Journal has a feature on how Argentine war veterans are turning to talk show radio as an outlet.

• The Washington Post on the intricate scandal involving the former PRI governor of the conflicted border state of Tamaulipas, who has been accused of taking bribes from criminal groups, although he says that the accusations amount to political persecution by Calderon’s National Action Party (PAN).

• Following Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa’s earlier comments that he was considering banning his ministers from speaking to private media, Reporters Without Borders says that six radio broadcast stations and two TV stations were shut down in Ecuador over the past two weeks.

• Security forces in northern Honduras removed about 100 land squatters and arrested 30, in a continuation of the conflict over land ownership in the Bajo Aguan region and the Cortes province, reports the Latin American Herald Tribune.

• Former Dominican Republic President Hipolito Mejia has written a formal complaint to the Organization of American States (OAS) complaining of a “constitutional dictatorship” on the Caribbean Island, reports El Nuevo Herald. Mejia lost to rival Danilo Media during the presidential elections last May, and claimed electoral fraud before eventually conceding defeat.

• An LA Times editorial calls President Rafael Correa’s lobbying to restrict the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights “nonsense,” describing the commission as one of the most important bodies for the OAS. “The commission's powers have remained unchanged for more than 50 years for good reason,” the editorial argues, adding, “Allowing member states, including those that have been the target of critical reports, to rewrite the rules or set new limits on the commission's powers is an invitation for opponents to settle scores.”

• Infosur with a comparative look at prison conditions in Central America, Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Peru, and Paraguay, focusing on the specific actions that each government has taken in order to improve overcrowding and other problems.

• The Wall Street Journal’s Mary Anastasia O’Grady profiles several Cuban dissidents who recently testified at a US Senate hearing on repression and civil sociey in Cuba.

• Douglas Farah with harsh words for the political legacy of Latin America’s Bolivarian governments at Foreign Policy.

• Alternet with a look at burgeoning leftist movement in Colombia, known as the Marcha Patriotica, which some have accused to ties to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

• Central American Politics has some book recommendations on new releases (mostly academic titles) about policy and security in the region.

Chavez Presents Blueprint for '21st Century Socialism'

In addition to officially registering as a candidate in the upcoming October election during Monday’s rally, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez presented electoral officials with a plan to “consolidate the Bolivarian Revolution,” outlined in an extensive document.

The illustrated, 39-page “2013-2019 Hugo Chavez Government Plan” (which was later printed in offical newspaper Ciudad CCS and is available for download on the paper’s website) is an odd mix of vague objectives and highly detailed proposals. In addition to calling for a 45 percent increase in domestic food production and promoting a “multi-polar” world, the AP notes that the plan presents “mundane specifics on pig farms, oil drilling, neighborhood committees and fertilizer output.”

The plan calls for a substantial change in Venezuela’s economic organization. In the next seven years the Chavez government wants to create 30,000 new “enterprises of direct social property” (autonomous community-run cooperatives), which El Universal rather glumly refers to as an attempt to “expand the communal state so that it becomes a way of life for most Venezuelans.”

But perhaps the most economically significant aspect of the plan is a major increase in oil production. Chavez wants to raise production to 6 million barrels a day by 2019, which is more than double the current output of 2.82 million barrels a day. There is no mention of how this would be financed, but if accomplished it would enable the government to significantly increase social spending. Record oil revenue this year has already fueled economic growth and allowed the president to launch a massive subsidized housing program ahead of the elections. To achieve this increase in oil production, however, the government will likely have to confront widespread corruption and inefficiency within the state-run PDVSA oil company.

Of course, between concerns over Chavez’s health and the absence of funding provisions, the 2013-2019 plan is far from a sound projection of Venezuela’s future. But if the rumors regarding the president’s prognosis prove false and Chavez wins the presidency in October, the country may be in store for some monumental changes in the next seven years.

News Briefs

• Mexico’s Zetas have laundered millions of dollars through a prestigious horse breeding program in the US since 2009, according to The New York Times.  Jose Treviño Morales, an older brother of Miguel Angel Treviño Morales (one of the drug cartel’s top leaders), allegedly used drug profits to buy and breed horses for the quarter horse racing circuit. The paper claims its staff first learned of the scheme in December 2011 while investigating the Zetas, but agreed to refrain from reporting on it until after US law enforcement agents raided Treviño’s ranch yesterday. The Times has posted related court documents, which “describe the ruthlessness with which the Trevino brothers conducted their business,” on its website.

• While media reports have portrayed Mexico’s youth as largely opposed to Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate Enrique Peña Nieto, a recent Mitofsky poll suggests that more Mexicans aged 18 to 29 support him than either of his rivals. Those who support Peña Nieto are generally among the poorest in the country, while the other two candidates are backed by wealthier, more educated youths.

• President Felipe Calderon has said that he will use the upcoming G-20 Summit in Mexico, which will be held on June 18-19, to build confidence in the International Monetary Fund and its attempts to alleviate financial crises in European countries like Greece, Spain and Italy. However, the Wall Street Journal reports that the outgoing president has played down the meeting’s short term impact, cautioning reporters that it will not result in a quick fix.

• In a move that is sure to earn him even further criticism from media watchdog groups, Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa said over the weekend that he was considering restricting members of his cabinet from giving interviews to the privately-owned press. "Maybe if we stop we won’t be filling the pockets of the six families that dominate the media nationwide,” he remarked. Correa has apparently followed up on the comment, as the AP is reporting that he has expressly forbidden his ministers from speaking to the private media.

• The government of the Falkland Islands has announced that it will hold a referendum next year on its “political status.”  Gavin Short, chairman of the Falklands legislature, said he has no doubt that the vote will reflect residents’ desire “for the islands to remain a self-governing overseas territory of the United Kingdom." The announcement came just before the 30-year anniversary of the 1982 Falklands War’s end, and was met with scorn by lawmakers in Argentina’s ruling coalition. Mercopress reports that the Argentine legislators say the announcement is illegal under international law, and is nothing more than an attempt to divert media focus from President Cristina Fernandez, who will be presenting her country’s claim to the islands at a meeting of the UN’s Special Committee on Decolonization tomorrow in New York.

• A little over one year after a law which mandated that El Salvador’s Constitutional Court issue rulings by consent rather than majority sparked a constitutional crisis in the country, another such crisis is brewing. Last week, the Constitutional Court ruled that the legislature’s appointments of Supreme Court justices in 2006 and 2012 violated the constitution, which lawmakers deny. Tim’s El Salvador Blog offers a useful summary of the dispute between the legislative and judicial branches.

• BBC Mundo interviews French journalist Romeo Langlois, who was held for more than 30 days by FARC guerrillas in Colombia.

• One week before the United Nations Rio+20 Conference on Sustainable Development in Rio de Janeiro, the BBC takes a look at the major issues on the table in preliminary negotiations and the obstacles to reaching an agreement. The Guardian’s Jonathan Watts reports on an ambitious reforestation plan in the Miguel Pereira forest, located just two hours outside of Rio. The project has restored more than 950 hectares of forest to the area and has created 150 jobs for locals, which Watts suggests make it a step towards the UN conference’s goal of creating a “green economy” worldwide.

• Elsewhere in Brazil, the government of Sao Paulo deployed hundreds of extra police officers to the streets yesterday in response to a crime wave in the city’s wealthy neighborhoods. The security push also coincided with the country’s version of Valentine’s Day, as the AP points out.

• Over at Latin America’s Moment, the Council on Foreign Relations’ Shannon O’Neil looks at the success of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs in Latin America. O’Neil points to several studies which show the immense impact of CCT programs on poverty in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Ecuador. These programs have been proven to reduce poverty and inequality, while also improving school enrollment and attendance for children of low-income families. Despite criticism from the right, they have not incentivized unemployment in the region, and have actually expanded both self-employment and participation in the workforce.

Chavez Registers Candidacy in All-Singing All-Dancing Show of Health

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez defied dark predictions about his health to make an energetic public appearance, singing, dancing, and rallying tens of thousands of supporters as he registered for re-election.

On Monday, dressed in a red beret and a tracksuit in the colors of the Venezuelan flag, Chavez rode a parade float to officially register himself as a candidate in the October elections.

The president undermined persistent rumors that he is suffering from terminal cancer, taking to the stage with a folk band and joining in with their songs. Crowds chanted "Ooh-Ah! Chavez isn't going away!", as he registered, reports the Associated Press.The crowds were allegedly boosted by the authorities declaring a public holiday and busing public employees to the rally, reports the WSJ.

He made a near three-hour speech outside the office of the election body, telling crowds "I want to thank my Lord that I'm here today. ... It was a difficult year." He slammed rumors about his health as “the psychological warfare of the adversary, that Chavez has only a few days left to live, that he is in a wheelchair."

Reuters said the president delivered a “practiced mix of folkloric spontaneity and militant discourse,” marking his “dramatic re-entry into the public eye.”

A representative of Caracas Capital Markets told the WSJ that “the only way he's going to lose is if he's dead and it doesn't look like he's dying this week. The longer he speaks, it dispels any notion that's he's going away tomorrow."

Chavez returned to the country a month ago after undergoing his latest round of cancer treatment in Cuba. He has been seen in public very little since then, avoiding appearances for nearly a month until early June, feeding rumors that his health was failing and that he might not be able to campaign for re-election. On Saturday he announced that latest tests showed that “everything” was “absolutely fine,” though he again failed to give details of what this meant, or indeed what type of cancer he has been suffering from.

Another report from the AP said that Chavez appeared “tired, bloated and pale” for the early part of the day. His riding on the parade float was in contrast to opposition candidate Henrique Capriles, who walked and jogged 10km across Caracas to register his candidacy on Saturday. Capriles made a jibe at the ailing Chavez over Twitter, saying “"This candidate isn't walking, he is out of gasoline!"

Carlos Blanco, a professor and former Venezuelan minister, told the AP, "Chavez has managed his illness with skill. He's gone from being the 'sick president' to the 'martyr president,' which allows him to maintain significant support.”

The New York Times notes that the contradictory stories about his health could work to Chavez’s advantage, feeding “an air of mystery and uncertainty” which makes him appear in control. It notes that the absence of any clear successor to the president makes it more difficult for Venezuelans to imagine a future without him. The newspaper says that Chavez’s circle is divided into three groups; one made up of long-time socialists led by Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro and Vice President Elias Jaua; one with close ties to business and the military, led by Congress President Diosdado Cabello; and the other being Chavez’s family, as represented by his older brother Adan.

Caracas Chronicles has a blow-by-blow account of the day, and of speeches by Chavez and opponent Capriles. It notes that there is a big contrast between the president’s registration and that of his opponent, “Just the idea of Henrique doing what Chavez did is just unthinkable. Chavez gets away with a political speech in front of the CNE.”


News Briefs

• As Mexico moves towards the July 1 national elections, a candidate for Guerrero state assembly has been shot dead by a group of gunmen in his home outside Acapulco, reports EFE. A supporter of President Felipe Calderon’s PAN party was also murdered in the southern state of Chiapas while putting up campaign posters, reports the AP. Ulises Grajales Niño, who was running for mayor of a Chiapas town on behalf of the long-ruling PRI party, has been arrested in connection with the case, reports Azteca Noticias.

• In the Mexican resort city of Acapulco, police say they have captured four key members of an emerging gang called “Sweeper” which has been battling the Independent Cartel of Acapulco for control, reports the AP.

• El Faro examines the issue of reintegrating former gang members in El Salvador, which is central to the government’s strategy, following a truce between rival gangs that has slashed murder rates over the last few months.

• Colombia has handed over the rotating presidency of UNASUR to Venezuela,reports EFE. At the meeting of the regional body in Bogota the foreign ministers of member countries created a new electoral council, whose first mission will be to oversee Venezuela’s presidential elections.

• InSight Crime looks at the changing tactics of Honduran street gangs the MS-13 and Barrio 18. Since the government brought in tough laws criminalizing membership nearly a decade ago, they have evolved, building closer ties with people in the neighborhoods they operate in. They are now more choosy about their members, focusing on those with skills like “a willingness to use violence ... Simply put, the emphasis now is 'pocos, pero locos' -- fewer, but crazier." A recent government study said that the groups have some 4,700 members, down from a government estimate of 36,000 a decade ago. InSight Crime says that the first was probably an overestimate, counting even the lowest-ranking associates, while the second is probably an underestimate.

• IPS looks at the problem of sexual violence in Central America and southern Mexico, where levels of impunity are extremely high. In El Salvador, 6 percent of reported sex crimes in recent years ended in a conviction, while in Nicaragua, 15 percent of sex crime cases that made it to court led to a conviction in 2008. It notes that one hurdle is access to justice, especially if victims live in rural areas far from legal services. The most common victims of the crime are girls aged 12 to 18, according to one expert.

• The Miami Herald has a piece questioning whether an industrial park set to create tens of thousands of textile jobs in the rural north of Haiti is the right step for the country’s development, or a step backwards. “Critics point out that even at its height of 100,000 jobs in the 1980s, Haiti’s garment industry failed to be an economic catalyst.” Some analysts point out that the industry will only provide low-wage jobs, and that investors should put more money into improving the agricultural sector.

• A boat packed with at least 28 Haitian migrants heading to the US has sunk off the coast of the Bahamas, reports the AP. Seven people have been rescued, and the authorities are searching for the missing, helped by the US Coast Guard. The newswire notes that Haitians often stop in the Bahamas on their way to the US.

• Honduras Culture and Politics welcomes the release of a man it says is a political prisoner, who had been held since 2009 without trial, facing charges of terrorism based on the fact that he was a supporter of ousted President Manuel Zelaya. 

• Peruvian authorities have recovered the bodies of 14 people who died in a helicopter crash in Cusco region, including foreigners from South Korea and Europe, reports the AP.