Venezuelan Supreme Court Backs Chavez's Delayed Inauguration

On Wednesday, the Venezuelan Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) ruled that the inauguration of President Hugo Chavez, which was scheduled for today, can be legally postponed in order for the president to recover from cancer treatment in Cuba. Although the Venezuelan Constitution calls for presidents to be sworn in on the January 10^th after elections in order to begin their term, El Universal reports that Supreme Court President Luisa Estela Morales said that Chavez can delay taking his oath of office because “there is no interruption in the exercise of his authority." She also pointed to the National Assembly’s motion to allow Chavez to postpone his inauguration, which passed on Tuesday.

The full text of the TSJ’s decision, written by Justice Morales and approved unanimously by the Constitutional Chamber of the court, is available online. One of the most interesting aspects of the ruling, as Bloomberg notes, is the fact that Morales cited an obscure 19^th century U.S. vice president named William R. King as a precedent to justify the TSJ’s interpretation of the inauguration as a mere formality. King was elected as Franklin Pierce’s running mate in 1852 and took his oath of office 20 days after the new administration’s term began while receiving tuberculosis treatment in Cuba.

Opposition leader Henrique Capriles, who has been a vocal advocate for a Court ruling on the issue over the past several days, surprised many by calmly accepting the TSJ’s decision, which he recognized as binding. Over at Caracas Chronicles, Ramon Muchacho provides an explanation for Capriles’ restraint after the court’s endorsement of what many among the opposition see as a “coup.” He points out that the position is likely based on the fact that the anti-Chavez camp cannot afford to lose popularity by pressing the legality of the delayed inauguration, adding that the opposition “can’t be seen as trying to gain via a technicality what we have yet to achieve via the vote.”

While Chavez will not be present, the Venezuelan government is moving forward with plans to hold a rally today in support of the ailing leader. The New York Times reports that National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello is urging Chavistas to come to the Caracas rally wearing a ceremonial sash bearing the national colors. Such a sash would traditionally be worn by the president during inauguration, and is a nod to his mantra that “Chavez is the people and the people are Chavez." 

According to Telesur, a number of regional heads of state will be in attendance in a display of solidarity, including Bolivia’s Evo Morales, Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega, Uruguay’s Jose Mujica and Haiti’s Michel Martellly. The foreign ministers of Argentina, Ecuador, Guyana and Suriname are also slated to attend.

News Briefs

• The Center for Economic Policy and Research’s Dan Beeton offers a sharp rebuttal of claims that the decision to postpone Chavez’s inauguration is unconstitutional.  He notes that the Venezuelan Constitution allows the president-elect to take an oath of office before the TSJ if he is unable to do so before the National Assembly on January 10^th, and provides no deadline for this.
• The Washington Post reports on discreet talks between members of the Obama administration and Venezuelan officials, which Vice President Maduro acknowledged last week but maintained were ordered by President Chavez. The Post, however, suggests that these exploratory talks on issues like oil production and Venezuela’s relationship with Iran, are a direct result of Maduro’s heightened importance in the wake of Chavez’s illness.  

• Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto has signed a bill into law which guarantees state assistance to victims of crime in the country. Passed by Mexico’s congress in April but resisted by former president Felipe Calderon, it requires local and federal officials to compensate victims by paying for health care costs and any necessary trauma therapy. It will also establish a national relief fund and nationwide registry of all crime victims. While El Universal reports that the project will be funded by the seized assets of drug traffickers, BBC Mundo notes that many in the country are still doubtful that the government will adequately uphold the law and allocate the necessary resources for this compensation.

• The first unilateral ceasefire declared by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in ten years, which was declared on November 20^th and will expire on January 20^th, will not be extended, FARC leader Ivan Marquez told reporters in a break from peace negotiations in Havana. Marquez said that the guerrilla group’s leadership “had not contemplated the possibility” of continuing the ceasefire and that this would only be possible if the government agreed to cease hostilities against the FARC as well, a proposition which President Juan Manuel Santos has repeatedly rejected.

• Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff cut short her vacation on Tuesday in order to respond to a developing energy crisis in the country that Reuters reports could impact economic growth. Because the country has been hit by a historic drought in recent months, Brazil’s hydroelectric dams are low on water, causing many analysts to speculate that energy rationing will be necessary. The government has denied this, but the AP notes that the last time water levels were this low, in 2001, it caused massive power outages.
• The Argentine frigate seized for two months in Ghana at the behest of international creditors, La Libertad, has finally arrived home. As the ship entered the port city of Mar del Plata yesterday, the AP reports that it was greeted by a crowd of thousands of people. President Cristina Fernandez also welcomed the return of the ship, and called its arrival a victory against "vulture" capitalists.
• A public report released by the United Nations Human Rights Council’s Working Group on Arbitrary Detention calls on Cuba to immediately release jailed U.S. contractor Alan Gross. The group found that while Gross was afforded due process, he was tried by a biased judiciary on vague and inflated charges.
• Just the Facts’ Adam Isaacson takes a look at what change President Barack Obama’s nominees for Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and CIA Director (John Kerry, Chuck Hagel and John Brennan, respectively) could bring to U.S. policy toward Latin America. Considering that all three favor more limited intervention abroad, Isaacson argues that this will likely result in more special operations, a heightened intelligence community presence, increased reliance on drone technology and more emphasis on cyber-security in the region.
• In response to public outcry, Peru21 reports that the Peruvian Congress has annulled a recently-passed law raising lawmakers’ pay to 41 times the country’s minimum wage.
• The Financial Times profiles the emergence of a middle class with disposable income in Peru, fueled largely by increased Asian demand for the country’s mining exports.

Lula to Face Investigation into ‘Mensalão’ Scandal Links

After successfully managing to avoid any connection to the “mensalão” vote-buying scheme during the recent Supreme Court trial of several of his closest allies, it appears that former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will face an investigation into his role in the scandal after all. Brazil’s Estado de S. Paulo reports that the country’s attorney general, Roberto Gurgel, has ordered a formal investigation into claims that Lula knew about the mensalão scheme during his presidency, and even benefited from it financially.

These allegations were first made by businessman Marcos Valerio, who was found guilty of serving as a key middleman in the scheme and sentenced to 40 years’ imprisonment in October. In sworn testimony given prior to his sentencing, Valerio said that he transferred funds to Lula for personal expenses at least twice.

When this testimony leaked to the media in December, Lula called the accusation a lie, and Attorney General Gurgel himself expressed skepticism about the allegation, saying “Valerio often makes reference to declarations that he considers bombastic and, when we investigate them in depth, that’s not the case.” Now that the Attorney General has officially opened an investigation into the matter, however, it appears there is at least some evidence to support Valerio’s claim.

The investigation into Lula is not entirely unexpected. Considering that his ex-chief of staff, the former president of his party and a number of figures in his administration have all been convicted of involvement in the mensalão scandal, it is perhaps more surprising that it took so long for the government to investigate Lula’s role.

Yet even if the former leader is found innocent in the mensalão case, he has been implicated in another emerging scandal, this time centered on charges that an aide of his oversaw a bribery and influence-peddling scheme.  


News Briefs

• The Venezuelan government has officially announced that President Hugo Chavez will not be sworn for his new term on Thursday. In a letter to the National Assembly, Vice President Nicolas Maduro wrote that Chavez would take his oath of office at a later date, and would do so in front of the Supreme Court. In the letter, Maduro said that the president would invoke Article 231 in the Venezuelan Constitution, which sets forth January 10^th as the inauguration date but fails to specify the consequences of the president-elect not swearing in on that day. As Greg Weeks of Two Weeks’ Notice blog points out, it only says that the oath must be taken in front of the Supreme Court. El Universal reports that the National Assembly then passed a motion allowing Chavez to postpone his inauguration for any time necessary for recovery. The AP notes that opposition lawmakers in the country questioned why the letter was signed by Maduro and not Chavez, as it may suggest the president is physically or mentally unable to do so.

• BBC Mundo assesses the constitutionality of the decision to postpone Chavez’s inauguration, and reports on the likelihood of the Supreme Court making a ruling on the issue. Because most of the justices on the Court were appointed by legislative allies of the president, the opposition believes that any ruling would likely be biased towards the government.

• With the prospect of Maduro’s succession of Chavez becoming more and more likely, many in the region are starting to look at what changes a Maduro presidency would bring to Venezuela’s foreign policy. So far it seems any shifts will be minimal. El Nuevo Diario spoke with the Venezuelan ambassador to Nicaragua, Maria Alejandra Avila, who told the paper that Venezuela’s economic aid to the Central American country (which some view as key to President Daniel Ortega’s popularity) would continue under a Maduro government. As the Washington Post editorial board has pointed out, Maduro is also seen as a major proponent of providing subsidized oil to Cuba, and would likely continue to do so if he is elected president.

• The Colombian Attorney General’s Office has re-opened an investigation into ex-President Alvaro Uribe’s links to paramilitary groups during his time as governor of Antioquia province in the 1990s. According to El Tiempo, the case is based on testimony by former United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) member Juan Guillermo Monsalve, who says that Uribe was himself an active paramilitary member and used his position as governor to help found an AUC bloc in Antioquia. In a statement via his personal Twitter account, Uribe denied the charges, which he said amounted to “slander from imprisoned criminals.”

• Honduras Culture and Politics blog provides an update on the crisis over the separation of powers in Honduras, noting that the four new Supreme Court justices who were controversially appointed last month have recused themselves from an appeal of their own appointment. Meanwhile, the Honduan human rights ombudsman has released a report on the crisis which finds that Congress’s decision to dismiss the four previous judges was arbitrary and illegal, La Tribuna reports.

• Two months after a plan to create privately-run cities in Honduras was ruled unconstitutional, the AP profiles a similar “private city project” in Guatemala. Unlike the Honduran plan, however, the Guatemalan proposal is geared almost exclusively to economic elites, and closely resembles a gated resort community.

• Time takes a look at the apparent resurgence of Mexico’s Ejercito Zapatista de Liberacion Nacional (EZLN), the guerrilla group-turned -social movement based in the southern state of Chiapas. On December 21^st, Zapatista supporters marched through the city of San Cristobal de las Casas to mark the 15^th anniversary of an indigenous massacre, and are now pressuring the government to adhere to the terms of a 1996 peace treaty granting them control over natural resources in the area.

• An interesting editorial in the Chicago Tribune sheds light on Jamaica’s massive public debt, describing the country as “the Greece of the Western Hemisphere.” Jamaica has more debt per GDP, and pays more interest, than any other country, according to the authors.

• Despite Chilean President Sebastian Piñera’s decision to increase the number of security forces in the troubled southern region of Araucania, at least two arson attacks have occurred in the past several days, the AFP reports. Piñera is meanwhile pressuring Chilean lawmakers to allow him to declare a state of emergency in the region, a move which leftist legislators see as discriminatory against the Mapuche minority there.

Chile Invokes Pinochet-Era Anti-Terrorism Law in Wake of Arson Attacks

A string of arson attacks in southern Chile in recent days has sparked a national debate over the escalating conflict there between wealthy landowners and Mapuche indigenous groups, as well as over the government’s use of controversial anti-terrorism legislation.

On Friday, an elderly couple was burned alive while trying to defend their home in the southern region of Araucania. While no group has publicly claimed responsibility for the murders, the couple had long clashed local Mapuches who claim the land as their own by ancestral right. Other attacks in Araucania in recent days include the burning of logging equipment and the destruction of a barn. 

In response, President Sebastian Piñera flew to Araucania, where he announced that the number of police officers in the region would be doubled, and that the perpetrators would be prosecuted under the country’s harsh dictatorship-era terrorism law. The administration also signaled that it was considering declaring a “state of emergency” in the area, and officials told local media that the group responsible for the attacks had links to Colombia’s FARC guerrillas.

The anti-terrorism law, which was passed in 1984 and has since been heavily criticized by human rights groups, allows for suspects to be detained indefinitely and tried in military courts, in which evidence from anonymous witnesses is allowed. As Human Rights Watch has noted, successive Chilean governments have used the law to prosecute Mapuches accused of low-level crimes like land occupations or property destruction, prompting allegations of discrimination. 

The Associated Press quotes a letter to the president from Mapuche leader Juana Calfunao Paillaef, who condemned the violent attack, but also criticized the government for ignoring Mapuche demands and for the way the conflict was being framed. 

"My community, family and I have suffered attacks of this nature; unknown elements torched my house three times and the remains of my uncle were found after," Calfunao said. "But in my case there were no visits by the Chilean president, a state of emergency was not declared and the perpetrators are not punished under the anti-terror law."

News Briefs

• Although Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez remains unlikely to attend an inauguration ceremony scheduled for this Thursday, the government has scheduled a massive rally in Caracas on the day, urging Chavez devotees to come and show their support for the ailing president, El Universal reports. According to National Assembly leader Diosdado Cabello, a number of heads of state are also slated to attend the rally, including Uruguayan President Jose Mujica, who confirmed the trip to local press yesterday. Telesur reports that the Venezuelan Communications Minister has announced that Chavez is now in “stable condition” after receiving treatment for his severe respiratory infection.

• The New York Times profiles the Venezuelan government’s use of Chavez’s image in his absence, largely through televised montages combining “elements of campaign ads and music videos, sometimes with the feel of a religious revival broadcast.”

• In an investigative piece for In These Times, James Bargent reveals ties between Chiquita Banana, which made payments to armed groups in Colombia in the early 2000s, and a Colombia-based multinational corporation known as Banacol. According to Bargent, Banacol has continued to have shady dealings with local neo-paramilitary organizations in northern Colombia in order to displace locals from their land.

• Colombia’s Deputy Attorney General has announced that the leaders of armed groups in the country can now be charged with sex crimes committed under their command, including rape and forced abortion. The decision marks an important shift for human rights advocates in Colombia. According to Uno Noticias, up until now only the direct perpetrator of such crimes could be held legally responsible.

• When the changes recently made to Cuba’s migration policies take effect next week, they will also extend to doctors and other medical professionals, the AP reports. Previously doctors were not allowed to travel without first undergoing a complicated bureaucratic process, a policy which was intended to prevent brain drain. Now, however, they will have the same freedom to travel as other Cubans.

• The Washington Post has a piece on newly-approved regulations in Cuba against broadcasting songs with racy lyrics, which many see as an attempt to crack down on the reggaeton music genre.

• After being held for more than two months by port authorities in Ghana at the behest of international creditors, the Argentine ship La Libertad has finally returned to Argentina’s national waters. According to La Nacion, it will be docking in the port city of Mar del Plata this afternoon, where President Cristina Fernandez is expected to make a speech marking the occasion.

• Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that President Fernandez will be traveling via private jet during a tour of Asia and the Middle East scheduled for later this month. Fernandez will not be using the presidential plane out of fear that creditors may seize her aircraft, which the government said in a statement was “highly probable.”

• After a year in office, Guatemalan President Otto Perez is shifting his cabinet. El Periodico reports that Foreign Minister Harold Caballeros and Agriculture Minister Efrain Medina will be stepping down on January 14^th. Caballeros will be replaced by former Soros Foundation director Fernando Carrera. 

• The New York Times highlights the effect that the emerging market for biofuels in the United States has had on farmers and poor families in Guatemala. With more and more land being used for fuel rather than food crops, and the price of corn doubling over the past three years, low-income Guatemalans are having difficulty purchasing what has long been a staple of their diet.

Bolivia Accuses U.S. of Intervening in Extortion Case in Order to Undermine Morales Govt

As the number of suspects involved in an alleged plot by Bolivian officials to extort U.S. businessman Jacob Ostreicher continues to grow, the Bolivian government has accused the United States of using the case to delegitimize President Evo Morales. On January 4^th, Bolivian prosecutors accused a judge and Santa Cruz court official of taking part in an attempt to extort Ostreicher, who has been imprisoned in the country for the past year and a half.  

Ostreicher was arrested in June 2011 after officials accused him of buying land from a Brazilian drug trafficker, although he has yet to be formally charged with a crime. The Brooklyn-born entrepreneur has maintained his innocence, and accused the Bolivian prosecution of trying to extract millions of dollars in payments from him in exchange for his release. As the case began to attract international attention, so did Ostreicher’s allegations against prosecutors, eventually resulting in the arrest of at least twelve suspects, including judges, lawyers and an Interior Ministry official.

The case has shone a spotlight on government corruption in Bolivia, especially within the country’s rickety judicial sector. As the New York Times reported in its recent profile of the case, Ostreicher’s treatment is not unusual “by Bolivian standards.” Fleecing wealthy prisoners is a relatively common practice in the country, and some two-thirds of inmates in Bolivian prisons are still awaiting trials.

In his initial response to Ostreicher’s allegations, President Evo Morales called for a full investigation, although his administration insisted that the American’s arrest was lawful and necessary. But now, Morales has adopted a shift in rhetoric. La Razon reports that on Sunday Morales accused the U.S. embassy in La Paz of meddling in the Ostreicher case in order to delegitimize his government. Minister for the Presidency Juan Ramon Quintana told reporters that Bolivia has “irrefutable” proof that the embassy is working to “damage the image” of the Morales administration, and said that the evidence will be turned over to U.S. President Barack Obama. 

While diplomatic relations between the United States and Bolivia have been tense ever since Morales expelled Ambassador Philip Goldberg and all DEA agents from the country in 2008, they seemed to be improving of late. The two countries had pledged to exchange ambassadors once again, and in November Morales publicly congratulated Obama on his re-election. The Bolivian government’s accusations, however, may indicate a return to chilly relations between the two countries. 

News Briefs

• On Saturday, Venezuela’s National Assembly re-elected Diosdado Cabello as president of the legislative body, meaning that he is now poised to become temporary head of state if President Hugo Chavez dies or is otherwise unable to take office, at least until elections can be held. While some analysts and members of the Venezuelan opposition continue to describe Cabello as a political rival of Vice President Nicolas Maduro, publicly the two have shown no sign of tension and have vowed to work together if Chavez dies. Meanwhile, with the January 10th inauguration date fast approaching and Chavez seemingly still unfit to be sworn in, the Wall Street Journal reports that uncertainty is growing in Venezuela over the constitutionality of Chavez staying in power without taking an oath of office. According to Vice President Maduro, however, this is not a problem. Maduro told reporters on Saturday that Chavez will continue in office after January 10^th, saying “the formality of being sworn in can be resolved later by the Supreme Court."

• The New York Times’ Elisabeth Rosenthal takes on the National Rifle Association’s recent call for gun-toting security guards in schools across the United States by making a comparison to several Latin American countries where armed guards are a ubiquitous sight and yet crime is rampant.

• The New York Times also offers an in-depth look at Uruguayan president and former Tupamaro guerrilla Jose Mujica, praising him for his modern “low-key radicalism” and austere lifestyle. Asked if he was worried by a recent drop in his popularity,  Mujica responded by saying “I don’t give a damn,” and insisted that he considers running for re-election (which is illegal in Uruguay) to be “monarchic.”

• La Republica reports on opposition in Peru to the Peruvian Congress’ recent decision to double the minimum salary of representatives; the figure now stands at 41 times the minimum wage in the country.

• Also published in the Times over the weekend is a profile of the Peruvian mining town of Morococha, which is slated to be razed by a Chinese mining firm interested in building a copper mine. While the company has built a new town six miles away and already helped 700 residents relocate, many locals are resisting the move, demanding more compensation from the company.

• Bolivia has announced the opening of its first lithium plant, on the edge of the Uyuni salt flats in the southwest of the country. According to Pagina Siete, the plant is expected to produce 40 tons of lithium carbonate annually, just a fraction of the amount that the country hopes to export in the coming years. The Uyuni salt flats are believed to be the site of the largest untapped lithium reserves in the country.

• The government of Honduras has dismissed its ambassador to Colombia, after a scandal in which the ambassador’s personal aide threw an alleged “sex party” in the country’s embassy in Bogota on December 20^th, which ultimately resulted in the facilities being trashed and two computers being stolen. Instead of firing the employee, Ambassador Carlos Humberto Rodriguez attempted to hide the incident from the press, El Heraldo reports.

• A new report in Foreign Affairs magazine claims that Secretary of State nominee John Kerry held a series of secret meetings with Cuba’s foreign minister in 2010 in an effort to ensure the release of imprisoned U.S. government contractor Alan Gross. Writing for Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government blog, former USAID official and conservative commentator Jose Cardenas criticized the attempt as a “lesson on the folly of attempting to appease dictators.”

• A voluntary disarmament program in Mexico City which allows locals to hand over illegal weapons in exchange for cash and with no questions asked has proved to be immensely popular. According to El Universal, the program has collected 866 weapons since it began on December 24^th, including a dozen assault rifles and six hand grenades.

• The L.A. Times conducted an interview with Guatemalan Attorney General Claudia Paz y Paz, in which the official spoke candidly about her struggle with organized crime, corrupt judges, and the legacy of the 1961-1996 civil war.

Chavez Fighting 'Severe' Respiratory Infection in Havana Hospital

On Thursday night, Venezuelan Minister of Information Ernesto Villegas announced that President Hugo Chavez has a severe respiratory infection, and is battling respiratory failure in his hospital bed in Havana, Cuba. While past official statements on Chavez’s health have already referred to the infection, last night’s announcement was marked by a significant shift in tone, as it was the first time that the infection was described as “severe,” and the first time respiratory failure was mentioned.

Predictably, the news has further fueled speculation over a power transition in the country. While much of this is conjecture, the past several days have seen a number of well-informed analyses of the main issues and actors at play. The Just the Facts blog, for instance, profiles three recent pieces by El Pais correspondent Ewald Scharfenberg (published on December 30, January 2, and January 3) on the role that the Venezuelan Armed Forces may play in a future power shift. While the military has officially declared itself to be constitutionally neutral, Scharfenberg argues that the army has the capacity to determine who will take over from Chavez by lending logistical and administrative support to a candidate deemed friendly to its interests.

Thus in order for Vice President Nicolas Maduro (Chavez’s own preferred successor) to take office, he must win the backing of high-level officers. According to Scharfenberg, this is complicated by the fact that the individual most analysts believe to be his political rival, National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello, was part of the same 1987 military academy class as the majority of commanding officers in the armed forces.

The New York Times Room for Debate blog also features a collection of opinions on a post-Chavez Venezuela, with brief pieces from experts such as WOLA’s Joy Olson and David Smilde, former Ambassador to Venezuela Patrick Duddy and the Heritage Foundation’s Ray Walser. Especially interesting are the arguments of The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Moises Naim and The Caracas Chronicles’ Francisco Toro, who both claim that whoever fills Chavez’s shoes will have to contend with pressing economic woes like a fiscal deficit and food and medicine shortages. As Toro points out, this might force the next president to employ unpopular austerity measures, which would alter Chavez’s economic programs but ultimately solidify his historical legacy.

With the January 10 inauguration ceremony less than a week away, it looks highly unlikely that Chavez will be able to be sworn in. The next major development in the Venezuelan political climate -- and a potential first indicator of definite cracks in the Chavista camp -- will occur tomorrow, when the National Assembly meets to elect its president for the next year. As noted in Wednesday’s post, if Diosdado Cabello is not re-elected, it may be a sign that the establishment sees him as a threat, suggesting that he plans to challenge Maduro in emergency elections if Chavez dies. 


News Briefs

• Returning from Cuba on Thursday, Venezuelan Vice President Maduro told members of the press that reports that US and Venezuelan diplomats were improving bilateral relations as a result of Chavez’s seemingly impending death were false. Though he acknowledged that Venezuelan diplomats had spoken with US officials, Maduro said that Chavez himself ordered the conversations, the AP reports.

• El Periodico reports that in response to pressure from human rights groups, Guatemalan President Otto Perez has said that he is open to suspending a decree limiting the jurisdiction of the Inter-American Court of Human Rights to abuses which occurred after 1987.  In a press conference yesterday the president said that his administration would temporarily refrain from delivering the decree to the Court, effectively stopping it from entering into force “while a dialogue [on the matter] is opened.”

• As a result of the government-mediated truce between the two largest street gangs in El Salvador, MS-13 and Barrio 18, the country’s police say that homicides fell more than 40 percent in 2012.  According to a National Civil Police spokesman contacted by EFE, El Salvador saw 2,576 murders last year, 1,795 less than in 2011.

• The four Honduran Supreme Court judges controversially appointed by Congress last month took office yesterday, La Tribuna reports, despite the best attempts of protestors to block the judges from entering the court.

• Yesterday, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto officially dissolved the Secretariat of Public Security (SSP), which was charged with maintaining internal security in the country. According to Excelsior, the body’s responsibilities (which include oversight of the prison system and Federal Police) will be handled by the Interior Ministry. As InSight Crime notes, this is likely part of a strategy by Peña Nieto distance his policies from those of his predecessor Felipe Calderon, who relied on the SSP for security.

• A new poll by Chile’s Center for Public Studies (CEP) shows that former President Michelle Bachelet remains the early favorite ahead of November elections in the country. The survey found that 53 percent of Chileans supported the former president, compared to 11 percent in favor of ex-Public Works Minister Laurence Golborne and 3 percent favoring former Defense Minister Andres Allamand. While Bachelet has not yet officially declared her candidacy, La Nacion reports that most analysts agree that she is almost guaranteed to run, and will leave her position as head of UN Women in March.

• Telesur reports that Ecuadoran President Rafael Correa’s Alianza Pais party is kicking off its campaign in support of Correa’s re-election with a march which will travel from the capital to the western city of Portoviejo. Correa will be taking a leave of absence from the presidency from January 15 to February 14 to campaign, and analyst James Bosworth provides a list of factors to watch during this period.

• In response to Argentine President Cristina Fernandez’s ad published in two UK newspapers reasserting her country’s claims to the Falkland Islands, British tabloid The Sun has taken out an ad in the English-language Buenos Aires Herald affirming the UK’s control over the islands.  
• This week’s issue of the Economist takes a look at the slow pace of recovery efforts in Haiti three years after the earthquake, where unemployment is high and locals still depend on NGOs for basic assistance. It also profiles the political climate in Argentina, where President Fernandez is losing support from her traditional base, potentially creating an opening for more conservative Peronists to come to power in 2015.

• According to the Digital Policy Council’s World Leaders on Twitter list, of the ten Twitter accounts belonging to world leaders, five belong to Latin American heads of state. The group says that this is proof that citizens in the region are rapidly embracing social media as a tool for political engagement.

Guatemala Rejects Inter-American Court Jurisdiction Over Pre-1987 Abuses

On Wednesday, the government of Guatemala announced that it would no longer recognize rulings made by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights on cases of crimes against humanity and genocide that occurred before 1987. According to a statement released by the administration of President Otto Perez, the government is not obligated to comply with these rulings because of a March 9^th, 1987 decree stating that the Court had no authority over human rights abuses prior to that date.

The government also said that it would no longer continue to pay compensation to victims of human rights abuses which occurred before 1987, as it had been doing until now in accordance with the Court’s rulings, according to El Periodico.

The announcement has generated controversy, not least because of the fact that Perez himself served as a military officer during some of the bloodiest years of the 1960-1966 Guatemalan Civil War. It also comes at a tense moment for human rights defenders.  The country is awaiting a definitive ruling by the Constitutional Court on whether ex-military dictator Efrain Rios Montt and others who committed abuses are protected by a 1986 amnesty law. Lower courts have ruled against the military officials, but they have managed to repeatedly appeal the case.

Prensa Libre reports that the announcement has been met with overwhelming criticism from human rights groups and the Catholic Church, who argue that it is both illegal and designed to foster impunity. According to Helen Mack, president of the Myrna Mack Foundation (one of the groups responsible for bringing high-profile cases against Guatemala to the Inter-American Court), "The government of Guatemala is obliged to abide by the judgments of the Court, and this cannot be legally or politically changed."

As the AP notes, the move may be an attempt by Perez to influence the Constitutional Court’s decision on amnesty. If the court rules in Rios Montt’s favor, it could set a harmful precedent in the region. While Rios Montt is not the only former Latin American ruler to be tried for crimes against humanity, his case has potential to be the first successful prosecution of genocide charges in the region.


News Briefs

• Bolivian President Evo Morales has issued his first official response to allegations that high level officials knew of prosecutors’ attempts to extort US citizen Jacob Ostreicher, who is being held under house arrest on drug charges in Bolivia. Morales denied these accusations, saying that while his anti-corruption minister Nardi Suxo would be stepping down from office, she was not doing so as a result of being linked to the extortion plot.

• On December 28^th, President Obama signed into law a bill which requires the State Department to develop a strategy to “address Iran’s growing hostile presence and activity” in the Western Hemisphere, AFP reports.  The Center for Economic and Policy Research’s Americas Blog offers a sharp critique of the law, known as the  “Countering Iran in the Western Hemisphere Act of 2012,” and takes a look at some of its most vocal supporters in Washington.

• Peru’s La Republica has a rundown of the top issues that President Ollanta Humala is likely to address in 2013, according to political analysts. These include resolving various mining conflicts in the country, reining in crime, drug trafficking and the issue of whether or not to pardon Fujimori. Because the former leader has requested a pardon on health grounds, the president has vowed to base the decision on his health only. According to Humala’s cabinet chief Juan Jimenez Mayor, the administration is waiting on the recommendation of an independent commission before making a decision.

• Ecuador’s Congress has approved President Rafael Correa’s request to be granted a temporary leave from office in order to campaign ahead of the February 17^th presidential elections. From January 15^th to February 14^th, Vice President Lenin Moreno will manage the position. The AP notes that polls put Correa some 50 points ahead of Guillermo Lasso, his strongest rival in the elections.

• As peace talks between the Colombian government and FARC guerrillas continue in Havana, Colombian Agriculture Minister Juan Camilo Restrepo told El Tiempo that rural Colombians displaced by the rebels are for the first time beginning to return to their land, thanks to a land restitution program created by the 2011 victims’ law.  

• According to President Juan Manuel Santos, in 2012 Colombia saw its lowest homicide rate in nearly three decades. In a speech yesterday, the president cited police statistics which put the country’s murder rate at 31 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants. Interestingly, this is still higher than the most recent homicide rate figures for Mexico (24 per 100,000 in 2011).

• Guatemala also saw a drop in homicides in 2012, with 5,174 reported murders compared to 5,681 the year before. According to data compiled by Mike Allison over at Central American Politics, this is the lowest number of murders in the country since 2004.

• Just the Facts takes a look at the violent land conflict in Curuguaty, Paraguay, which triggered the ouster of former President Fernando Lugo. The conflict remains unresolved, and while 11 campesinos and six police officers were killed in violent clashes, so far only the campesinos have been charged.

• Argentine President Cristina Fernandez has written a strongly-worded letter to British Prime Minister David Cameron criticizing the UK’s "blatant exercise of 19th-century colonialism" over the Falkland Islands. The letter, which was published in English as an ad in both the Guardian and Independent newspapers, calls on the British government to adhere to a 1965 United Nations resolution to "negotiate a solution" to the Falklands conflict. Unsurprisingly, Cameron has rejected Fernandez’s appeal, promising to “do everything to protect interests of islanders.”

• The widow of leftist Chilean folk singer Victor Jara, who was killed in the aftermath of Pinochet’s 1973 military coup, may finally see justice after 40 years, El Nuevo Herald reports. Last week, a Chilean court ordered the arrest of seven former military officers in Santiago, and requested the of an eighth suspect who is currently living Florida. According to El Mostrador, at least four of the accused who are living in Chile are currently in police custody. It remains to be seen whether the US will consent to the extradition request.

With Chavez's Health Uncertain, Potential for Instability Grows

In keeping with the trend in recent months, the past two weeks have seen several conflicting reports on the state of Hugo Chavez’s health. While Venezuelan Vice President Nicolas Maduro told the press in late December that Chavez was recovering well from cancer treatment in Cuba, the AP reports that he has since reversed this statement, saying that new complications had arisen, and that the president’s health was “delicate.”

In recognition of the news, the Venezuelan Interior Ministry canceled a planned state-sponsored New Year’s Eve celebration in Caracas’ Plaza Bolivar. However, Maduro denied reports that Chavez was in a medically-induced coma and on life support, saying he was conscious and aware of his situation.

Nevertheless, it seems increasingly likely that the Venezuelan president’s administration, as well as his life, will soon be coming to an end. Many analysts fear that Chavez’s death could bring about a period of dangerous and possibly violent instability in the country. The president has proven himself to be skilled at using his leadership to unite conflicting political interests, and without him these forces will be difficult to hold together. Still, as the Center for Economic and Policy Research’s Mark Weisbrot argues, the major gains made by Chavez’s Socialist Party (PSUV) in the December 16^th regional elections suggests that the PSUV is popular and unified enough to carry on without him.

Writing for World Politics Review, Jennifer McCoy and Michael McCarthy point out that Chavez’s decision to name Maduro as a potential successor has forestalled an internal power struggle in the short run. They also contend that Chavez’s failing health has not, as the opposition hoped, served to turn people against chavismo, and the majority of Venezuelans will likely rally around Maduro should it come to that.

Still, only time will tell what a power transition in Venezuela will bring. The first indicator of turbulence could come as soon as January 5th, when the National Assembly will meet to elect its head for the next year. The current head of the legislature is Diosdado Cabello, considered to be a political rival of Maduro’s. If he is re-elected and Chavez dies before inauguration, then according to the constitution, Cabello and not Maduro would become temporary head of state until emergency elections are held.  Alternatively, as Caracas Chronicles notes, if Cabello is not re-elected it could be a sign that Maduro and the PSUV establishment see him as a threat, suggesting that he may challenge Maduro in elections if Chavez dies.


News Briefs

• The New York Times reports on Bolivia’s unorthodox “Coca Yes, Cocaine No” strategy of allowing licensed farmers to cultivate coca for traditional uses. The paper notes that as a result the total amount of land used for coca dropped by 12 percent in 2011. Still, concerns persist about the effectiveness of the government’s monitoring efforts, with the US government and some analysts arguing that much of the legal crop is funneled into the drug trade. WOLA and the Andean Information Network have released a joint assessment of these claims, offering a comprehensive analysis of the effect of Bolivia’s drug policy thus far.
• The Times also profiles the case of Jacob Ostreicher, the American citizen being held in Bolivia on allegations of drug ties. Despite the fact that more than a dozen corrupt federal prosecutors on the case have been imprisoned after attempting to extort Ostreicher, he remains under house arrest in the country.
• Bolivian President Evo Morales has nationalized Spanish-owned electricity supply companies, according to El Pais. The move comes after the president accused the companies of overcharging residents of rural areas, claiming that rural households paid more than twice the price for electricity than their urban counterparts.
• Siglo21 reports that a Guatemalan prosecutor and a local government official were killed while traveling near the border with Mexico on December 24^th, after their vehicle was intercepted by gunmen. President Otto Perez claimed that the murders were linked to organized crime, and said that a foreign (likely Mexican) group may have been involved.
• The Associated Press’ Alberto Arce provides an interesting firsthand account of his life as a journalist in Honduras, and the difficulties he faces in reporting on the country’s violent political landscape and criminal underworld. According to Arce, he is the only foreign correspondent currently in Honduras.
• La Tribuna reports that on December 22, after weeks of conflict between the Honduran Congress and the Supreme Court, the US embassy in Honduras released a statement on the ongoing attack on judicial independence in the country. As Honduras Culture and Politics notes, however, the embassy’s carefully-worded official statement takes no official stance on the development.
• The L.A. Times takes a look at reports of torture or forced confession in Mexico, as investigations by human rights organizations and testimony from victims suggest that security forces’ use of torture has skyrocketed since 2006. The number of officials tried for this crime, however, remains abysmally low.
• El Espectador features a description by Enrique Santos, brother of Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, of the early efforts to convince FARC guerrillas to negotiate with the government. According to him, the peace process involved months of secret meetings with guerrilla leaders in Cuba, beginning as early as 2010.
• In a setback for Argentine President Cristina Fernandez, on December 27^th the Supreme Court ruled against an appeal by the administration to remove a hold placed on its planned dismantling of the Clarin media group in keeping with an anti-media monopoly law, MercoPress reports.
• The Washington Post reports on the crack epidemic in Brazil, making a comparison to the wave of crack abuse that swept through cities in the United States in the 1980s.  The comparison is limited, however. While the US responded by imposing harsh mandatory sentences for crack possession or sales, Brazil has responded to the problem by viewing it through a public health lens, achieving mixed success.