FARC Announce Unilateral Ceasefire

The second round of peace talks between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) officially began in Havana, Cuba yesterday with a surprising announcement from Ivan Marquez, the FARC’s second-in-command and leader of the group’s negotiation team. In a press conference, Marquez said that the FARC’s leadership had “order[ed] its guerrilla units throughout the country to halt all types of offensive military operations against government forces as well as all acts of sabotage against public or private infrastructure" beginning at midnight on November 20^th and ending at midnight on January 20^th. 

The unilateral ceasefire is the first such declaration made by the FARC since the last attempted peace negotiations, which ended in 2002. According to a statement published on the rebel group’s website, the move is meant to "strengthen the climate of understanding necessary for starting the dialogue to achieve the purpose desired by all Colombians."

Despite the declaration, the administration of President Juan Manuel Santos has vowed to continue military operations against the guerrillas. In a brief statement in Bogota yesterday, Colombian Defense Minister Juan Carlos Pinzon said that the announced ceasefire was simply not credible. "It's very hard to believe they are able to stop murdering children and launching attacks against civilians like the ones we have seen in recent weeks," he said. Caracol Radio reports that the guerrillas have carried out a total of 48 attacks since peace talks were first announced in August, killing 30 members of the security forces and 17 civilians.

The ceasefire is a potential game-changer in the peace negotiations. La Silla Vacia notes that it amounts to a test of the strength of the FARC’s command structure, as it puts the group’s top leadership in conflict with its forces on the ground. If a rogue element in the guerrilla group disobeys orders and launches an attack, it could call into question the credibility of the FARC’s top negotiators to speak for their organization as a whole.

According to Ariel Avila of the Nuevo Arco Iris Foundation, however, the mere fact that the FARC has announced the ceasefire is proof that it has the organizational capacity to enforce it. As Avila told Semana magazine, "The announcement shows that they are completely organized, and it will be obeyed at every rank."

The FARC’s unilateral cessation of hostilities also puts the government in a difficult position. While Santos has repeatedly maintained that a ceasefire is not on the table, waging an aggressive counterinsurgency campaign over the next two months could create a public relations disaster, painting the government as unnecessary aggressors in the conflict. Considering the fact that more than 70 percent of Colombians support the peace process, this would not be a smart move. Ultimately, if the FARC are able to maintain internal discipline enough to hold the temporary ceasefire, it may force Santos to suspend the government’s campaign against the guerrillas whether he wants to or not.

News Briefs

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