FARC Temper Hopes for Imminent Ceasefire

While the Colombian negotiating parties in Havana have made some important progress recently, FARC leaders have made it clear that the peace talks are nowhere near establishing an end to hostilities.

On Friday President Juan Manuel Santos announced that General Javier Florez, until recently head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the armed forces, would be in charge of a new “Transitional Command,” tasked with overseeing “the process of moving from war to peace,” as well as supervising the demobilization of the FARC and the surrender of their weapons. One week prior to the announcement, Santos appointed Florez as head of a military sub-commission in charge of mapping out the details of an eventual ceasefire.

This followed a brief but historic meeting between Colombian military leaders and FARC negotiators in Havana on August 22.

These developments, paired with the important progress made on the issue of both parties’ responsibility to conflict victims (see Virginia Bouvier’s concise analysis of the 27^th round of talks), have fueled cautious optimism that the peace process could succeed, despite Santos’ recent warning that FARC attacks could jeopardize the future of negotiations.

But in their recent remarks to the press, the FARC have sought to dampen expectations somewhat. In an AFP interview last week, for instance, FARC negotiator Andres Paris cautioned that a ceasefire, as well as disarmament, would be a slow process. “No one has suggested to the FARC, nor have we ever said to the government, that there would be a single moment when we would hand over our arms. I repeat, there will be no photo op of the FARC handing over its arms,” he told the news agency.

On top of this, yesterday the FARC’s top negotiator in Havana, Ivan Marquez, stressed via a press release that negotiations are not “in the final stages,” and accused the government of “creating false expectations.” Marquez claimed the rebel group was particularly alarmed about Santos’ claim that General Florez would oversee the FARC’s demobilization.

“It should be noted in relation to the creation of the Transition Command, that the FARC will in no way accept a military hierarchy to resolve issues that are political by definition,” Marquez said. The guerrilla added that any demobilization would also be contingent on the “demilitarization of the state and society.”

This may be a long way off. According to Tony Lopez, a Cuban political analyst who appears to have some access to the backchannel talks in Havana, restructuring the Colombian armed forces to focus exclusively on protecting national sovereignty rather than internal security is currently off the table. As Lopez writes in analysis for Las 2 Orillas, the issue is one of 28 sticking points that have been left to debate at the very end of the peace process, a list which also includes the specifics of land redistribution and a series of proposed political reforms.  

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