Where’s Peña Nieto’s Plan for the Iguala Disappearances?

As the search for the 43 missing students drags on in Guerrero, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto is finding his agenda completely dictated by the disappearances. Though more than a month has passed since the incident, his administration appears caught off guard by the public outrage to the case and seems unable to articulate a satisfactory response.

Newspaper Reforma reports that the president has postponed plans to seek congressional approval for his plans to travel to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Beijing and a G-20 leaders’ summit in Australia next month. Instead, Peña Nieto appears to be devoting his energy almost entirely to responding to the public outrage resulting from the disappearances in Iguala.

According to El Universal, Peña Nieto is scheduled to receive the parents of the missing 43 later today for a closed door meeting in his official residence. Animal Politico reports that relatives of three students who were killed by police and unknown gunmen prior to the disappearances have been invited as well. Also expected to be present is Interior Minister Miguel Angel Osorio Chong.

Meanwhile, the case still dominates headlines, and protests against the disappearances and police corruption in general have continued both in Iguala and across the country.  

The resignation of Guerrero governor Angel Aguirre has not stopped federal lawmakers from pointing fingers and exchanging allegations of facilitating the corrupt relationship between local authorities and police in Iguala that contributed to the disappearances. El Universal and El Pais report that left-wing politician Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has been a recurring target, as he personally endorsed Jose Luis Abarca’s campaigns for mayor of Iguala, allegedly after having been informed of the local officials’ reported crime links.

As the New York Times and L.A. Times report, yesterday authorities announced that suspects in the case had led them to yet another mass grave in the nearby town of Cocula, and that investigators are working to identify the remains found there.  However, the fact that officials have discovered 38 bodies in ten other unrelated mass graves nearby has lowered hopes that the latest find is linked to the Iguala case.

The Financial Times has a particularly astute analysis of the significance of the case to the Peña Nieto administration, criticizing the fact that the president appears not to have a plan to address the scandal and has not yet visited Iguala. The FT also takes him to task for his decision to abandon his predecessor’s narrative of a war on crime in favor of “sticking rigidly to the narrative of progress and modernization.” The piece also features input by several analysts who suggest he use his political coalition-building skills to hammer out reforms meant to assert the rule of law.

News Briefs

• The Venezuelan government is coming under increasing fire for the continued imprisonment of opposition figure Leopoldo Lopez. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy echoed a request from the United Nations' top human rights official to free Lopez last week, prompting the Venezuelan government to recall its ambassador to the country for consultation. Yesterday, Lopez refused to appear in court in a bid to pressure officials to respond to the UN request.

• A bill presented to Colombia’s Congress that would legalize marijuana for medicinal use got a boost yesterday by Minister of Health Alejandro Gaviria, Radio Santa Fe and El Tiempo report.

• In her first major interview since re-election, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff spoke with SBT Brasil last night about her plans for her next term. Among other things the president doubled down on her promises to promote political reforms via a popular referendum, and emphasized her support for a federal law that criminalizes homophobic speech.

• Police in the Brazilian state of São Paulo have released alarming statistics on the number of killings by uniformed officials so far this year. From January to September, police there killed 478 people, the highest number for the same period over the past decade and twice as many as the same period last year.

• Following a report by Semana magazine alleging that Colombian military intelligence officials had conducted a secret list of the personal emails of journalists, diplomats and peace negotiators, military intelligence chief Mauricio Forero has been temporarily relieved of his duties as the attorney general’s office investigates the matter.

• Fort the 23rd time, the United  Nations General Assembly voted yesterday to overwhelmingly condemn the U.S. economic embargo against Cuba. As Reuters reports, as in the past several years the U.S. was joined only by Israel in opposing the measure, while a handful of Pacific island nations abstained.

• Salvadoran Defense Minister General David Munguia Payes has responded to allegations that the recent murder of Colonel Carlos Alfredo Rivas Najarro’s son had to do with Rivas’ support for investigating military human rights abuses and repealing El Salvador’s Amnesty Law, as profiled recently in InSight Crime. In remarks to news site Factum, Munguia Payes  denied that the armed forces were behind the murder, saying that today’s Salvadoran military has changed drastically since the days of the country’s civil war.

•  The AP looks at the Cuban government’s attempts to fight the country’s declining birthrate, which include expanded maternity and paternity leave, and still-unannounced special incentives for young couples to have children. 

Five Points on Uruguay’s Legislative Vote

I was impressed by James Bosworth’s insightful analysis of Brazil’s election results, with “Five Points on Dilma.” Copying his style, here are five points on the first-round election in Brazil’s smaller neighbor to the south:

The FA keeps a majority: In a surprise twist that defies all of last week’s projections and opinion polls, Uruguay’s ruling Frente Amplio (FA) is poised to maintain effective control over both legislative houses for the next five years. Although a runoff between the FA’s Tabare Vazquez and National Party’s Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou will take place on November 30, Sunday’s vote determined the breakdown of 2015-2020 congressional seats by proportional representation. According to electoral officials, the results are: FA 47.9 percent, National Party 30.96 percent, Colorado Party 12.92 percent and Independent Party 3.07 percent. The Electoral Court still has to confirm the distribution of seats, but every major news outlet in the country (see El Pais, El Observador, Radio Espectador and Radio 180) has reported that the FA has won 15 seats in the Senate and is sure to keep its 50 seats in the lower house. This gives them a guaranteed lower house majority, and if Vazquez wins the second round they will control the Senate (where they currently have 16 seats) as well, as the vice president casts the tie-breaking vote in the 30-member body. (Image credit: Montevideo Portal)

Vazquez gets a second wind: This is a huge boost not only for the Frente Amplio, but for Vazquez as well. His party’s list got four more points than those of the two largest opposition parties combined (the Colorado and National Party votes together have 43.88 percent compared to the Frente’s 47.9 percent). Because the bases of the Independent Party and smaller Popular Unity parties are center-left to leftist voters disenchanted with the FA, it is safe to assume the majority of their support will transfer to Vazquez as well. Factum’s recent runoff poll, which showed  the two candidates statistically tied at 48 percent for Vazquez and 47 percent for Lacalle Pou, no longer seems trustworthy, especially in light of all the major pollsters’ inability to predict Sunday’s outcome.

The Frente’s still got it (and its progressive laws are safe): As El Observador reports, this is the first time since the 1940s that a Uruguayan party stands to hold onto a legislative majority for three consecutive terms. Much of the international coverage of Uruguay’s election so far (see the New York Times, Reuters) has focused on the FA’s support of progressive yet controversial legislation as a reason for its potential defeat. Yet despite opposition to marijuana legalization, abortion decriminalization (and to a lesser degree) marriage equality from large segments of the country, these measures have so far not become hot-button issues. In addition to ensuring that these initiatives will remain in place, Sunday's vote confirms that the FA has a unique ability to push the envelope without taking a hit in the polls. This has been illustrated before, however, in the wake of the October 2012 law that decriminalized abortion. The measure was opposed by 46 percent of the country, and in April 2013 51 percent of Uruguayans said they would support holding a referendum on whether to repeal it. Yet just 8.9 percent of the electorate actually came out to support an eventual referendum in a June 2013 vote, essentially leaving the issue settled. 

NO a la Baja: The push to lower Uruguay’s age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16, which until recently looked guaranteed to pass, failed by six points (53 percent opposed and 46.99 in favor). Support for the initiative dropped significantly over the past year due largely to the efforts of the civil society coalition behind the creative “No a la Baja” campaign. The campaign also got a boost from Uruguay’s voting system, which required supporters of lowering the criminal responsibility age to present a slip indicating their preference alongside their party’s ballot list.  Not including it was counted as a “no” vote, so the fact that the Frente Amplio and second-largest segment of the National Party did not include the slips automatically with their own lists likely made an important impact.

“El Pepe” is popular:  Jose “Pepe” Mujica’s signature humble, plain-spoken image has served him well politically. Some 62 percent of Uruguay’s population views him favorably, and 58 percent approve of his government, according to an October Cifra poll. This support has also translated into backing for his Popular Participation Movement (MPP) sector of the Frente Amplio. As Radio Espectador reports, the MPP’s list was the most supported among FA voters, making it the largest single FA bloc in both houses. This bucks another historical trend, as most Uruguayan presidents see their party’s internal faction lose support after leaving office, according to El Observador. 

News Briefs

• The AP has an analysis of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s slim victory margin in Sunday’s vote, which paired with the country’s fragmented Congress may make it difficult for her to act on her promise to push for political reforms and hold a national referendum to address demands for better public services and less corruption. The New York Times also offers a take on the results, pointing out that Rousseff’s narrow win highlights bitter divisions between the country’s rich and poor, as well as between northeast states and the more developed south.

• Mexican investigators looking into the disappearance of the 43 missing students in Guerrero say that suspects in custody have led them to a mass grave site about 10 miles from where the disappeared were last seen. Mexico’s attorney general, meanwhile, has told the press that the protesting students were taken first to a police station and then to a nearby town, apparently while still alive.

• As the peace talks in Havana progress, more FARC leaders are arriving at the negotiating table to give their two cents on the process, as Reuters noted last week. One of the latest and most controversial arrivals, according to the AFP, is alias “Edilson Romaña,” who is accused of orchestrating mass kidnappings for the rebels in recent years.

• La Silla Vacia looks at the hurdles that Colombian civil society faces in creating a comprehensive “movement” by uniting the various victims’ associations in the country, a process that has been held up by the fact that the groups themselves are divided over the current peace talks.

• Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights offers some insight into President Nicolas Maduro’s decision to remove Interior Minister Miguel Rodriguez, which many believe is the result of pressure from Chavista “colectivos” upset at a police operation that killed one of their leaders earlier this month. David Smilde and Hugo Perez Hernaiz point out that the incident has troubling implications for governance in the country, as it is essentially a “conflict between security forces that think of themselves as the legitimate holders of the state’s monopoly on violence and groups of armed citizens who see themselves as legitimate defenders of the revolution.”

• Maduro has added more details to the killing of PSUV Congressman Roberto Serra, claiming that corrupt police had a hand in the lawmaker’s murder, BBC Mundo reports. As a result of this development, El Nacional reports that Maduro has promised to reform the country’s police force, saying: “We haven’t reached the goal of having police that are 100 percent trustworthy to the people.”

• Yesterday Catholic Church officials in Cuba announced that the island’s government is allowing it to build the first new church in the country in 55 years, which many interpret as a sign of Cuba’s improved relationship with the Vatican.

• The southern Peruvian city of Ayacucho yesterday held a ceremony to lay to rest 80 victims of the country’s bloody internal conflict, which were exhumed between 2011 and 2013. According to the AP, officials have recovered 2,925 sets of remains so far and identified 1,689, just  a fraction of the 69,000 believed to have been killed.

• The Washington Post reports on an interesting indication of the ways in which Bolivian President Evo Morales and his MAS party have altered the identity of the country’s Aymara indigenous. In recent years ,wealthy Aymara individuals have been increasingly embracing their heritage by promoting a colorful architectural style known as “New Andean,” which is transforming the landscape of the city of El Alto.

• Syndicated columnist Andres Oppenheimer looks at the Buenos Aires government’s decision to move its city hall to one of the most neglected neighborhoods in the city in a bid to revitalize the area, a move he notes has worked in other cities around the hemisphere and might be applied successfully in Miami.

Some Surprises in Uruguay and Brazil Elections

Brazil and Uruguay both held elections yesterday, and both votes saw some surprises.

While Uruguay’s presidential race will go to a runoff between Tabare Vazquez of the Frente Amplio (FA) and the National Party’s (PN) Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou, the first round vote will determine the breakdown of congressional seats for the next five years by proportional representation.

Last week’s projections predicted the ruling FA coalition would win just 43-44 percent of the vote, but in reality they performed far better than expected. Exit polls conducted by all three major pollsters (Cifra, Factum and Equipos Mori) suggest that the FA won between 46.5-47.4 percent of the vote, putting it very close to winning the estimated 47 percent it needs to hold onto control of both houses.

The final vote count is still being tallied, but with 96.9 percent counted so far by the Electoral Court, the results are as follows: Frente Amplio 46.98 percent, National Party 30.68 percent, Colorado Party (PC) 12.85 percent and Independent Party (PI) 3. 01percent. What’s more, the ballot measure to lower the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 only received 46.47 percent of the vote, losing out by over 6 points to the “no” vote, with 53.53percent.  As El Pais reports, it seems the efforts of the “No a la Baja” civil society campaign have paid off, and the measure has been defeated.

Radio 180 reports that Colorado Party candidate Pedro Bordabery wasted no time last night in endorsing the PN’s Luis Lacalle Pou in the second round, as he was ultimately expected to do. However, El Observador reports that the Frente has been preparing its runoff campaign for this scenario for weeks, and it stepping up its messaging and campaign tactics to reach out to “colorados” who might balk at voting for a traditional rival among the “blancos” (as the National Party is known locally).

The big winners in Uruguay’s first round vote are the Independent Party, which increased its showing by half a percentage point compared to the last vote in 2009. This may not seem like much, but because of Uruguay’s proportionate vote, they stand to add a senator to the two congressional seats they currently control. If the FA fall just short of a majority, the Independents may become important powerbrokers in the next Congress.

In Brazil, President Dilma Rousseff won re-election by the slimmest majority the country has seen since its return to democracy. According to official results, the incumbent beat her challenger Aecio Neves by 51.6 to 48.4 percent of valid votes. This despite the fact that Ibope and Datafolha polls last week showed Rousseff beating Neves by 53-4 to 46-47 percent.

Folha’s analysis of the vote points out that this campaign season was especially divisive and tumultuous, with both candidates exchanging allegations of corruption and abuse of power. As the paper notes, moving forward Rousseff will have to overcome widespread skepticism towards her policies, especially regarding her management of the economy.

The president seemed aware of this in her victory speech last night. Appearing before a crowd of supporters, she promised that the first priority of her second term would be political reform, as Reuters and O Globo report. Rousseff is also reportedly planning on naming several new figures to her cabinet to repair her relationship with Congress, which soured in recent years.

More on Brazil’s election today from The Economist (which has a useful graph of fluctuation in the polls in recent months as well as a breakdown of how each state voted), New York Times and Wall Street Journal.

News Briefs

• Lawmakers in Guerrero have voted to replace the governor of the Mexican state, who stepped down last week in response to outrage caused by the case of the 43 missing students there. El Universal has a profile with Rogelio Ortega Martínez, his replacement, who previously served as the rector of the Autonomous University of Guerrero.  The L.A. Times notes, however, that the replacement is unlikely to satisfy the thousands of Mexicans who have protested against the situation in Guerrero in recent weeks.

• On Friday, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro replaced Interior Minister Miguel Rodriguez with Defense Minister Carmen Melendez, a move that the Miami Herald’s Jim Wyss notes comes after Chavista collectives accused him of ordering an operation that killed a collective leader earlier this month. As El Nacional reports, Rodriguez was not expelled from the government, however, with Maduro saying that he would give him “15 days” of rest before assigning him elsewhere.

• The Miami Herald takes a look at Venezuelan opposition figure Leopoldo Lopez, heavily quoting Human Rights Foundation President Thor Halvorssen Mendoza, who happens to be Lopez’s cousin.

• Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos seems again to be attempting to lower expectations of an immediate end to the country’s conflict. In remarks on Sunday, the president stressed that the “most difficult negotiating points remain,” and warned that “there is still no reason to declare victory.”

• While the education reform supported by President Michelle Bachelet was passed by Chile’s lower house recently, it has some detractors in the country. BBC Mundo and the AFP report that the thousands who participated in a march in Santiago on Saturday oppose the measure over concerns that it would cause certain schools to close and force families to send their children to the public system.

• This author has an analysis of the growth of militia groups in Rio de Janeiro for InSight Crime. According to official estimates, militias formed by off-duty and ex-security force members have gone from operating in just six communities in 2004 to 148 today, and there is reason to believe they had a significant impact on their neighborhoods' voting patterns in Sunday’s election.

• The AP has an update on the charges faced by former Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, who has been accused of corruption, drug trafficking and money laundering.  A local judge has ordered his arrest for failing to appear in court, which police have been unable to follow as they are engaged in a tense standoff with supporters of the president outside his home for the past weeks.

• Also on Haiti, the New York Times reports that the Haitian cholera victims’ lawsuit against the United Nations before a Manhattan judge is underway, and saw its first court proceeding on Thursday. 

Last Polls Before Voting Day in Brazil, Uruguay

On Sunday, both Brazilians and Uruguayans will be going to the polls. In Brazil, recent surveys have suggested that President Dilma Rousseff has widened her lead over challenger Aecio Neves. But in neighboring Uruguay, recent polls suggest that that the ruling Frente Amplio coalition isn’t having the same luck.

Yesterday, Ibope and Datafolha both published the results of surveys taken earlier this week, both of which for the first time showed Rousseff leading Neves outside of the margin of error. Ibope has Rousseff beating Neves 49% to 41% of total votes (excluding null and blank votes, Rousseff has 54% to her rival’s 46), while Datafolha found 48 % for the incumbent and 42% for Neves (which would be 53 to 47% of valid votes, respectively).

The Wall Street Journal reports that analysts say Dilma’s rise is a product of her campaign’s ability to secure support among working-class voters. However, the Datafolha survey suggests this is isn’t quite the full picture. As Folha reports, Datafolha’s data shows that the president’s challenger lost support across all classes in recent weeks.  The pollster found that support for Neves after the first-round vote stood at 74% among upper class voters and 67% among the middle class, but that these figures have since fallen to 64% and 58%, respectively.

Meanwhile in Uruguay, the governing Frente Amplio coalition has not seen a rebound similar to Rousseff’s. Polls released this week suggest the FA will fall short of the roughly 47% that most analysts suggest it needs to hold on to its legislative majority.  Equipos Mori has the Frente Amplio at 43.6%, the National Party (PN) at 33.4%, the Colorado Party (PC) at 15.1% and the Independent Party (PI)  at 3.1%; Cifra has FA 43%, PN 32%, PC 18% and PI 3.3%; and Factum suggests FA 44%, PN 32%, PC 15% and PI 3%).

According to El Observador’s helpful projections based on these polls, in the best possible scenario for the FA, they will still lose two congressmen in the lower house. This means that no matter what, the next Congress will see far more debate and vote-wrangling than in the past five years under the FA’s controlling majority.

Because the FA won’t obtain a majority of votes in the first round, there will almost certainly be a presidential runoff on November 30 between the FA’s Tabare Vazquez and the PN’s Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou. On this front the news isn’t good for the FA either. Factum, the only pollster to publish surveys on a hypothetical pairing between the two, found earlier this month that two are statistically tied at 48% for Vazquez and 47% for Lacalle Pou, with a 3 point margin of error. This gap has narrowed from September, when Factum had 50% for Vazquez and 48 for Lacalle Pou, and is a far cry from polls earlier this year. As recently as April, Vazquez enjoyed a 15-point lead over his rival, with 55% to Lacalle Pou’s 40%.

Regarding Uruguay’s plebiscite to lower the age of criminal responsibility, the latest survey from leading pollster Cifra shows that 47% support the reform and 43% oppose it.  However, the good news for Uruguay’s No a La Baja campaign is that this 47% will not automatically translate into votes for the measure. In order to support the initiative, voters have to present a special slip inside the sealed ballot lists of their party of choice. Not including the slip is the equivalent of not voting for the reform, which is why the Frente Amplio lists do not include them. And though the Colorado Party is automatically including the slip in its ballot lists, the National Party is divided on the issue, as El Pais has noted. While Lacalle Pou’s faction of the National Party will include it, Vice President candidate Jorge Larrañaga’s list -- the party’s second-most popular grouping -- will not. Though this seems like a minor detail, Larrañaga’s decision will likely mean the failure of the reform initiative.

News Briefs

• Though it has largely avoided becoming a major campaign issue thus far, Uruguay’s marijuana law has come into play in recent days, with both Vazquez and Lacalle Pou mentioning it in remarks to the press. Last week, the FA candidate remarked to newsmagazine Busqueda that he saw the law’s provisions on commercial sales in pharmacies as “unheard of,” though he said he would continue to implement it while carefully evaluating its effects.  And as El Pais reports, in a Wednesday interview he again put some distance between himself and the law, remarking that commercial sales could potentially put pharmacies at risk of criminal attacks.  Lacalle Pou, for his part, confirmed to Reuters on Wednesday if elected president he would present a bill to end sales in pharmacies, restricting it to home-growing and cannabis clubs.

• In the latest twist in the case of the 43 missing students from Mexico’s Guerrero state, Guerrero Governor Angel Aguirre Rivero has stepped aside to allow the state legislature to choose his successor, Animal Politico and the AP report.

• News site Plaza Publica has an interview with the head of Honduras’ National Anti-corruption Council, Gabriela Castellanos Lanza. Since taking office she has made a name for herself as a committed champion against abuse of public funds and criminal influence in government.

• InSight Crime’s David Gagne offers his take on Guatemala’s recent government-commissioned civil society report on potential drug policy reforms.  In his estimation, the report’s lack of “state regulation or at least decriminalization of marijuana” represents a step backward from Guatemala’s position as a main advocate for a new approach to drugs in the hemisphere.

• The government of Venezuela yesterday announced the discovery of warehouses packed with food and medical goods that had been meant to illegally smuggle into neighboring Colombia, which President Nicolas Maduro held up as an example of what he has in the past called an “economic war” being waged against the country.  He also said he would use decree powers to raise the maximum jail sentence for smugglers to 14 years, Ultimas Noticias reports.

• WOLA’s Adam Isaacson takes a look at estimates regarding the economic cost of implementing Colombia’s peace agreement, which range from $44 billion to $150 billion over the next decade.

• The Dominican government officially gave a response to the recently-published Inter-American Court of Human Rights ruling on its citizenship and immigration practices yesterday. As El Listin Diario reports, government spokesperson Roberto Rodriguez Marchena told reporters that the administration of President Danilo Medina “rejects” the sentence even as it continues to adhere to the Inter-American human rights system. According to Rodriguez, the government views the decision as a violation of a state’s sovereign right to decide its own citizenship requirements, enshrined in international law.

• But while the Medina government claims to respect the American Convention, the court’s ruling has fueled arguments among Dominican lawmakers arguing in favor of withdrawing recognition of its jurisdiction. This includes spokesmen of both major parties -- Medina’s PLD and the PRD -- in the lower house, according to El Dia.

Inter-American Court Rules Against Dominican 'Denationalization'

The Inter-American Court of Human Rights has ruled that the Dominican Republic is guilty of systematically deporting individuals of Haitian descent on a discriminatory basis, and that it must take steps to invalidate last year’s controversial ruling that left thousands of people effectively stateless.

Yesterday, the court published its ruling on “Expelled Dominican and Haitian people v. Dominican Republic,” condemning the D.R. for human rights violations committed against Haitian migrants and Dominicans of Haitian descent in the 1990s. During this time the court found that tens of thousands of people had been made victims of arbitrary detention and expulsion, violating their rights to a nationality, to recognition as a person before the law and to freedom of movement and residence as laid out in the American Convention.

The decision has been a long time coming. The case is based on a petition first submitted on behalf of 27 victims to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights in late 1999, which the Commission passed the case on to the Court after issuing its own recommendations in 2012.

But while the case focuses on violations that took place from 1990 to 2000, yesterday’s sentence goes beyond the specific facts involved, as Acento, Listin Diario and Spanish news agency EFE note.

On top of ordering the D.R. to sort out the legal documentation of the 27 victims, the court took aim at the 2013 Dominican Supreme Court decision that left the legal residency and citizenship status of as many as 250,000 people in doubt. In its recommendations, the court asserts that Dominican authorities should “adopt internal legal measures” to annul the 2013 domestic court ruling, as well as sections of a controversial May 2014 law meant to implement it.

Specifically, the Inter-American Court ruled that the D.R. should “take appropriate steps to void any rules of any kind; whether constitutional, legal, regulatory or administrative; as well as any practice, decision or interpretation; which establishes or has as its effect that the illegal presence of foreign parents causes the denial of Dominican nationality to persons born in the territory of the Dominican Republic.”

This is a significant victory for Dominican civil society groups that have advocated for the rights of Haitians and people of Haitian descent in the country. Because the Dominican Republic has accepted the jurisdiction of the Inter-American Court since early 1999, the ruling is legally binding. In fact, Article 74 of the Dominican Constitution establishes that in the event of a contradiction between a national court ruling and an international one, the ruling that is most favorable to individual rights-holders takes wins out.

However, in practice the Inter-American Court ruling is unlikely to bring any change, at least in the short term. As human rights expert Julia Harrington Reddy has noted, a similar judgment in 2005 went virtually ignored and did nothing to prevent last year’s Supreme Court ruling.

In a press conference last night, a spokesman for President Danilo Medina told reporters that the government would need time to analyze the 160-page ruling, but would likely present an official response to the decision by Friday.

News Briefs

• The AP looks at the support for Brazilian presidential challengers Aecio Neves and Dilma Rousseff among lower middle class voters. Many analysts believe Rousseff’s aggressive marketing has given her an edge among this demographic, taking advantage of Neves’ image as defender of elite interests.

• In an excellent article for Foreign Policy, Rio-based journalist Miriam Wells explains why regardless of which presidential candidate wins on Sunday, they will have to work with the PMDB legislative bloc in order to govern effectively. As she notes, the PMDB’s long-standing influence and flexibility on ideological issues has effectively turned the party into a political kingmaker.

• Brazil is not the only country in the hemisphere that will be holding elections on Sunday. Uruguay’s general election is also slated for October 26, though polls indicate that the presidential race will go to a runoff between the ruling Frente Amplio’s Tabare Vazquez and National Party candidate Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou. As the campaigns come to a close, the three leading pollsters have released their final polls ahead of the vote. El Pais and Subrayado have good overviews of the three ( Equipos Mori: Frente Amplio 43.6%, National Party 33.4%, Colorado Party 15.1 and Independent Party 3.1%; Cifra: FA 43%, PN 32%, PC 18% y PI 3.3%; and Factum FA 44%, PN 32%, PC 15% y PI 3%), with most analysts agreeing that the ruling coalition will lose its legislative majority and that the second round presidential race is still too close to call.

• On Tuesday, Chile’s lower house voted to approve an education reform bill presented by President Michelle Bachelet, as La Tercera reported.The Wall Street Journal  has more on the details of the bill, which will end student copayments, prevent for-profit schools from receiving state money, and eliminate restrictive admission policies.

• Mexican Attorney General Jesus Murillo Karam yesterday confirmed reports that Iguala Mayor Jose Luis Abarca had ordered corrupt police to detain protesting students in the town last month, out of concerns that they would disrupt a speech by his wife. Karam also said that the mayor received payments of between $150,000-$220,000 from the local criminal gang, Guerreros Unidos.

• The Argentine Forensic Anthropology Team (EAAF), which has been contracted to help Mexican authorities identify the remains found in the mass graves being uncovered in Guerrero, has cast doubt on the methods used by official Mexican forensic researchers. Animal Politico reports that because of potential procedural errors, two members of the EAAF told the news site that the Mexican government cannot be entirely sure that none of the 30 bodies located thus far belong to the missing students.

• The Venezuelan government has begun implementing a controversial plan to fight food and good shortages by requiring individuals buying staples like milk, rice, coffee, toothpaste, chicken and detergent to scan their fingerprints to ensure they are not stocking up.  The WSJ describes this as rationing, asserting that Venezuela has now “joined the ranks of North Korea and Cuba.”

• Human Rights Watch has released a new report on anti-LGBT discrimination in Jamaica,  documenting 56 cases in which people claim to have been victimized because of their sexual identity. Police investigations into these crimes were "often inadequate or lacking altogether," according to HRW.

Mexico’s CNDH: Soldiers Killed 15 in Tlatlaya Massacre

Yet another version has emerged of the events surrounding the death of 22 suspects at the hands of soldiers in the town of Tlatlaya on June 30. For two months, both state and federal officials denied that any wrongdoing had occurred, saying that all the victims had died in a shootout even as local and international press reported on witnesses’ claims that all but one of the victims had been executed.

This continued until late September, when Mexico’s Defense Ministry (SEDENA) announced the arrest of eight personnel in connection with the death (this has since risen to 16). Two weeks later, the office of the Attorney General (PGR) announced that four soldiers would be prosecuted  for the alleged murder of eight suspects, while the remaining 14 had been killed in an exchange of gunfire.

Now, Mexico’s National Human Rights Commission (CNDH) has turned this story on its head. In a summary of the group’s own investigation (.pdf)  released yesterday, CNDH President Raul Plascencia called on the SEDENA, PGR and the government of Mexico state to widen their inquiries into the Tlatlaya killings, saying that it had established that soldiers executed at least 12 and probably 15 of the 22. Contrary to the military’s claims, the initial firefight lasted no more than ten minutes, as the suspects surrendered quickly. As Animal Politico reports, the CNDH accused the soldiers of rearranging their bodies after the incident in order to make the deaths fit the official story.

It remains to be seen how the government will respond to the CNDH’s non-binding recommendations, but the continued absence of the 43 disappeared students in Guerrero and the continued discovery of unrelated mass graves in the area do not exactly inspire confidence in Mexican authorities.

News Briefs

• The AFP reports that U.S. State Department source has said that the Obama administration is open to the idea of collaborating with Cuban officials to fight the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. "We welcome the opportunity to collaborate with Cuba to confront the Ebola outbreak. Cuba is making significant contributions by sending hundreds of health workers to Africa," the source reportedly told the news agency.

• The Wall Street Journal reports on Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s apparent slight surge in the polls recently, becoming the latest U.S. media outlet to profile the president’s support base among the rural and urban poor.

• As the search for Mexico’s missing students drags on and new graves are being uncovered, the Associated Press reports on Mexico’s difficulty with identifying remains and the slow pace of documenting disappearances.

• In an op-ed for the New York Times, Clarin opinion editor Fabian Bosoer and historian Federico Finchelstein criticize a new deal reached between the Argentine and Russian governments that will pave the way for a Spanish language version of the state-owned Russian news agency RT to air in the South American country. To the authors, the agreement is an example of what they describe as a regional march towards “Putin’s approach to media freedom,” in which Latin America’s populist governments are increasingly becoming hostile to independent journalism.

• InSight Crime offers an update on Mexico’s controversial decision to legalize the so-called “self-defense” militias in Michoacan state, noting that the recent death of a militia leader lends weight to claims that officials have failed to properly equip the groups and bring them into the ranks of the military’s Rural Defense Corps.

• Timothy Gill of Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights has a collection of reactions to the country’s acquisition of a UN Security Council seat last week, which range from outrage among U.S. politicians and the NYT and Washington Post editorial boards to less heated  responses by regional analysts, many of whom have pointed out that the seat offers only a symbolic victory to the Maduro government.

• McClatchy reports on opposition to the Australian El Dorado gold mining project in El Salvador, a mine that environmentalists say would cause devastating environmental harm to affected communities. The future of the mine is being decided by a World Bank tribunal in DC, which is expected to issue a ruling sometime early next year.

• The Washington Post reports on the campaign efforts of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and her challenger Aecio Neves in the latter’s home state of Minas Gerais, noting that his record as governor there has been both attacked by critics and applauded by supporters.

• The Miami Herald’s Jim Wyss profiles the reactions to the Colombian peace negotiations in Havana among conflict victims, finding that despite all they have endured, many of Colombia’s 6.7 million victims are more interested in reconciliation and peace than revenge.

Cuba Calls for U.S. Cooperation on Ebola

Cuba’s commitment to fighting the Ebola outbreak in West Africa -- a product of its longstanding emphasis on medical diplomacy -- has earned applause in recent days from some unexpected sources, including Secretary of State John Kerry.  On Friday, Kerry briefly touched on Cuba’s humanitarian efforts, noting that “Cuba, a country of just 11 million people, has sent 165 health professionals [to Ebola-stricken nations]— and it plans to send nearly 300 more.” 

The following day, state media on the island published a column by Fidel Castro in which the former ruler wrote that the Cubans “will happily cooperate with U.S. personnel in this task, not in search of peace between these two states which have been adversaries for so many years, but rather, in any event, for World Peace, an objective which can and should be attempted.”

Both Kerry and Castros’ remarks were picked up in a New York Times editorial on Sunday, which also described the potential for the U.S. (“the chief donor in the fight against Ebola”) and Cuba (“the boldest contributor”) to complement each other’s work in West Africa. “While the United States and several other wealthy countries have been happy to pledge funds, only Cuba and a few nongovernmental organizations are offering what is most needed: medical professionals in the field,”  the NYT noted.  

At the very least, the paper called for infected Cubans to be given treatment at a U.S. military health center in Liberia. This gesture would be especially important given that, according to CNN, Cuban healthcare workers in West Africa have agreed not to be repatriated to Cuba for treatment if they are infected, in order to avoid spreading the illness.

Yesterday, Raul Castro opened a door to such collaboration. At an ALBA summit on the Ebola crisis in Havana, the Cuban president echoed his older brother’s words. Cautioning that humanitarian work should not be “politicized,” he vowed that Cuba is “willing to work shoulder to shoulder with all other countries, including the United States.”

The invitation is significant in that it provides the Obama administration with an opening to seize on all the recent praise of Cuba’s efforts, improving the fight against Ebola as well as strengthening relations with Havana.

So far, however, such a move seems unlikely. The Miami Herald reports that a U.S. State Department spokeswoman refrained from commenting on whether U.S.-Cuba cooperation on Ebola would be possible, only saying that Cuba was making a “significant contribution.”

The Herald also has more on the ALBA bloc summit, which ended with member nations adopting a 23-point resolution committing them to launch public health campaigns, step up screening at border checkpoints and airports and create “specialized teams” to craft a national strategy to the disease in the event that it crosses the Atlantic.

News Briefs

• A new poll on Brazil’s presidential field by Datafolha suggests that President Dilma Rousseff has gained some ground on her challenger Aecio Neves. The poll found 52 percent for Rousseff, compared to 48 percent for Neves. While the president’s lead is still within the margin of error, Veja notes that this is the first time that her support has been higher than Neves’ since the runoff phase of the race.

• Also on the Brazilian elections, Michael Shifter offers an interesting analysis of the race in Foreign Policy. While both Neves and Rousseff have hurled accusations of corruption and nepotism at each other in the past three face-to-face debates, Shifter claims there has been relatively little discussion of their policy differences. This, he says, is due to the fact that there are remarkably few differences between the two, and their divisions “are more like those between Old Labour and New Labour in Britain.”

• In an op-ed in today’s New York Times, Folha columnist Antonio Prata criticizes what he sees as his compatriots’ collusion with everyday corruption and low-level tax evasion schemes, even as they criticize politicians for more egregious versions of the same actions.

• Panama has suspended a Supreme Court justice accused of using his proximity to former President Ricardo Martinelli to his own economic benefit, charges that have been bolstered by the revelation that he owns multiple luxury apartments that are seemingly outside his official pay range.

• Analyst James Bosworth takes a look at Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s flagging popularity, with a new Datanalisis poll showing that 30 percent approve of his administration and 68 percent do not. Even more telling is the fact that 82 percent of Venezuelans say the country is not heading in a positive direction.

• After meeting with the wife of imprisoned Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez on Friday, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Raad al-Hussein called on the government to release him and more than 69 other people detained since protests broke out earlier this year.

• In an update of the race for OAS Secretary General, yesterday the government of Argentina officially endorsed Uruguayan Foreign Minister Luis Almagro for the job, El Observador reports. Argentina joins Chile, Brazil, Paraguay and -- of course -- Uruguay, meaning the entire Southern Cone is united behind the candidate.

• The local chapters of international anti-corruption watchdog Transparency International voted over the weekend to elect the group’s next head, choosing Peruvian lawyer José Ugaz over French businessman Pascal Lamy. Ugaz received an endorsement from The Economist last week, which characterized him as the bolder choice of the two candidates, representing “the activist approach.”

• The Washington Office on Latin America features video footage of a recent panel discussion at the Brookings Institute regarding the impact that the U.S. trend towards marijuana legalization has had on international drug policy reform efforts. On the Americas, Lisa Sanchez Ortega offers a solid rundown on the progress of reforms in the hemisphere, noting initiatives in Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, Mexico and the Caribbean.

• The Miami Herald looks at a planned Clinton Global Initiative event in Miami this December, which former President Bill Clinton is set to unveil later today. The event is slated as an opportunity to reflect on the 20 years since the first Summit of the America, and as a way for policymakers and experts to assess what the next 20 years holds for the Americas.