Theories Abound on Cause of Mexico Minister's Helicopter Crash

More theories have emerged about the cause of last Friday’s helicopter crash that killed Mexican Interior Minister Francisco Blake Mora. While the director of the official investigation claimed yesterday that the crash was most likely due to pilot error or instrument failure, others have suggested that it was the result of foul play. In a recent report cited by the Houston Chronicle, Global intelligence firm STRATFOR claimed that a confidential government source had said that the purposeful contamination of the aircraft’s fuel supply was a leading theory among investigators.

Much of this speculation is due to the fact that the Interior Minister’s death occurred almost exactly three years after the death of his predecessor, Juan Camilo Mouriño, who died in similarly mysterious plane crash in November of 2008. Additionally, the Huffington Post reported earlier this week that one Twitter user posted an ominous message a day before the crash, saying, "Tomorrow on 11/11/11, you'll have a Secretary falling from the sky ... avoid reform."

Patrick Corcoran from InSight Crime notes that Blake Mora is the fourth major politician to die in an aircraft crash in the past six years, but offers a somewhat less colorful explanation for the trend:

An alternative theory is much simpler and more logical, though probably more damning. That is, the extraordinary number of fatal crashes is not caused by criminal groups sending messages to the president, but rather by a deficient aviation safety system. Defects in the model that killed Mouriño and Santiago Vasconcelos, a Learjet 45, had provoked a warning from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration in 2003, yet the Mexican government purchased a handful of them for use by senior officials a year later.

The helicopter carrying Blake Mora had recently received maintenance, according to reports, but it was also almost 30 years old, having been purchased originally during the administration of Miguel de la Madrid.

Ultimately, while the similarity between these deaths is quite striking, there is no reason to believe that a lack of attention to aviation safety could not be behind them. As Corcoran notes, in some ways this carelessness is even more alarming than the conspiracy theories, as it shows a profound lack of necessary caution on the part of those in charge of protecting Mexican government officials.

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