Peru's President Battered by Mining Protests

Four months into his presidency, Peru’s Ollanta Humala is facing his first serious challenge, in the form of widespread opposition to mining projects. Social movements across the country are putting up a fierce fight against large-scale development projects, often on the grounds that they will damage the environment.

In a country rich in gas and mineral wealth, much of which is located in the land of indigenous groups, the government face the task of balancing the imperative to protect the environment and respect the wishes of the population with that of developing the economy. An added complication is that Humala won the presidency as a left-leaning candidate, promising to spread the benefits of the country’s economic boom in a way previous President Alan Garcia had failed to do, and resolve social conflicts. For the Financial Times, the conflicts are shaping up to be the “defining issue” of Humala’s presidency.

The problems facing Humala are a direct inheritance from the presidency of pro-market Alan Garcia, whose time in power saw the number of social conflictstriple, bringing about the death of some 191 people in clashes.

An article in the latest issue of the Economist says that, in the face of the demands of social movements and investors, “keeping both parties happy at once may be impossible.”

At least 80 people were reportedly injured in clashes when police broke up anti-mining protests earlier this month in the southern region of Apurimac, forcing the government into signing a ban on mining in the area around the city of Andahuaylas, center of the protests. As Reuters sums up the situation, Humala is

trying to mediate more than 200 environmental conflicts nationwide that often pit rural towns against mining and oil companies with $50 billion in projects planned in Peru for the next decade.

Humala has taken various steps to mediate these conflicts, including instituting a requirement that native groups are consulted on resource extraction projects. He has also tried to increase welfare programs in deprived rural areas, which are often those where groups affected by development projects live. A watchdog body on social conflicts has praised the consultation law, saying that it was a historic achievement that signalled the government’s commitment to working with excluded populations.

However, the Economist warns that;

The native-consultation law could also prove perilous for Mr Humala. By January the government must decide which groups should be consulted, and how recommendations will be made. Formally, the process only applies to indigenous groups, prompting squabbling over who can use that label.

Humala’s Prime Minister Salomon Lerner has taken on the role of “bad cop,” asBloggings by Boz points out, threatening to crack down on protesters who disturb the peace.

Similar difficulties have beset the presidency of Evo Morales in neighboring Bolivia, who has seen his support base eaten away by opposition to large-scale infrastructure projects, particularly a proposed highway that would have been built in an indigenous reserve. As in Peru, Bolivian law mandates that residents of these reserves must be consulted over planned projects. Though the political situation in Bolivia is different, with even stronger social movements, the fact that Morales was forced into a humiliating climbdown on the project serves as a warning to Humala.

As the FT puts it;

every protest is a fresh test of the president’s ability to keep walking that line between investors and Peruvians who feel locked out of the country’s rapid economic growth.

New Briefs

• Julian Leyzaola, police chief in the troubled Mexican border city of Juarez, is facing a fresh round of allegations of abuses committed during his time as police chief in Tijuana. His two years in charge of security in the city coincided with a dramatic drop in the murder rate, for which he and his highly aggressive tactics took some of the credit, and the police officer was recently named one of the top 50people who have "changed" Mexico, by a magazine. The latest abuse allegations relate to reports that he sanctioned the torture of people in police custody. These kind of claims have been made before, as detailed in a 2010New Yorker piece, which quoted police officers who said they had been tortured after being detained on suspicion of corruption. Leyzaola has responded by claiming that organized criminal groups are behind the abuse allegations.

• The Brookings Institute has published a report which calls on the international community to encourage Cuba’s reforms by engaging with the country, boosting reformist voices within the government and bringing the communist nation “in from the cold.” According to the report, this link-building process is already underway; “Far from isolated by U.S. sanctions, the Cuban economy has become deeply integrated into global trading and investment markets.”

• In more commentary on Cuba’s economic reforms, the Miami Herald has a critical analysis of the country’s new property laws, arguing that they do not bring about as much real change as some have said. For the Miami Herald, “it is too early to foretell the development of any meaningful real estate market in Cuba,” and “the socialist model is still the rule of law” in that country.

• Former Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega is a step closer to being extradited to his home country from France, after the U.S. agreed to the move,reports the Associated Press. In Panama, the ageing ex-leader faces decades in prison for charges including embezzlement and murdering opponents.

• The Miami Herald reports on an advertising campaign by the Colombian government which aims to stop the flow of child soldiers into the FARC rebel group. The idea is to warn parents that abusive home environments could encourage their children to run away and join the guerrillas. The problem of child guerrillas is a serious one, and more than 300 minors reportedlydemobilized from the FARC in the first seven months of this year.

• Former President of Peru Alberto Fujimori, who is serving a prison sentence for human rights abuses during his time in power, has been admitted to hospitalfor tests. The former leader still enjoys a degree of popularity in the country, where his daughter Keiko recently came close to winning the presidency in a campaign based on his popularity. His declining health, including a bout of tongue cancer, could strengthen the case for him to be pardoned on compassionate grounds.

• Xiomara Castro de Zelaya, the wife of former Honduran President Manuel Zelaya, who was overthrown in a 2009 coup, is set to run for the presidency in 2013. Her husband is blocked from running by the constitution brought in after the coup.

• The Guardian reports that Afro-Brazilians have become a majority in the country for the first time, with some 50.7 percent of Brazilians defining themselves as black or mixed-race in the 2010 census.

• Also from Brazil, the Economist reports on the government’s moves to investigate crimes committed under the 1964-85 military dictatorship, with the establishment of a truth commission to look into the abuses of the period. The British newspaper says that, “Compared with its neighbours, Brazil has been slow to revisit its dictatorship’s crimes,” in part because its transition to democracy was more gentle than Argentina, for example.

• National Security Spokesman Alejandro Poire, a key figure in the Mexican government’s war on drugs,  has been appointed as interior minister, following the mysterious death of Francisco Blake Mora in a helicopter crash.

Theories Abound on Cause of Mexico Minister's Helicopter Crash

More theories have emerged about the cause of last Friday’s helicopter crash that killed Mexican Interior Minister Francisco Blake Mora. While the director of the official investigation claimed yesterday that the crash was most likely due to pilot error or instrument failure, others have suggested that it was the result of foul play. In a recent report cited by the Houston Chronicle, Global intelligence firm STRATFOR claimed that a confidential government source had said that the purposeful contamination of the aircraft’s fuel supply was a leading theory among investigators.

Much of this speculation is due to the fact that the Interior Minister’s death occurred almost exactly three years after the death of his predecessor, Juan Camilo Mouriño, who died in similarly mysterious plane crash in November of 2008. Additionally, the Huffington Post reported earlier this week that one Twitter user posted an ominous message a day before the crash, saying, "Tomorrow on 11/11/11, you'll have a Secretary falling from the sky ... avoid reform."

Patrick Corcoran from InSight Crime notes that Blake Mora is the fourth major politician to die in an aircraft crash in the past six years, but offers a somewhat less colorful explanation for the trend:

An alternative theory is much simpler and more logical, though probably more damning. That is, the extraordinary number of fatal crashes is not caused by criminal groups sending messages to the president, but rather by a deficient aviation safety system. Defects in the model that killed Mouriño and Santiago Vasconcelos, a Learjet 45, had provoked a warning from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration in 2003, yet the Mexican government purchased a handful of them for use by senior officials a year later.

The helicopter carrying Blake Mora had recently received maintenance, according to reports, but it was also almost 30 years old, having been purchased originally during the administration of Miguel de la Madrid.

Ultimately, while the similarity between these deaths is quite striking, there is no reason to believe that a lack of attention to aviation safety could not be behind them. As Corcoran notes, in some ways this carelessness is even more alarming than the conspiracy theories, as it shows a profound lack of necessary caution on the part of those in charge of protecting Mexican government officials.

News Briefs

·         U.S. officials yesterday uncovered a major drug-smuggling tunnel which led between two a warehouses in Tijuana and Otay Mesa, California. The BBC reports that tunnel was 400 yards in length, and notes that officials also seized an estimated 14 tons of marijuana in the operation.  According to Mexico’s El Universal, more than 75 such tunnels have been detected in the past four years, the majority of which lead into California and Arizona.

·         Two journalists working for Mexico’s El Financiero went missing in the northern state of Zacatecas earlier this week. The AP reports that the last thing the individuals reported before their disappearance was that they were being followed by “two patrol cars.”

·         The L.A. Times has published an editorial which condemns Haitian President Michel Martelly’s plans to reconstitute the country’s military. As the piece notes, Martelly “has yet to outline what safeguards would be adopted to prevent abuses or to ensure that former soldiers tied to past violence don't reenlist.”

·         The New York Times profiles an attempt by tech-savvy Guatemalans to start up a local equivalent of Silicon Valley in brick building located in downtown Guatemala City.  According to the founder of the effort, Juan Mini, “a new Guatemala is being born right now.”

·         Twenty-two years after the Salvadoran Army killed six Jesuit priests in one of the most notorious events of El Salvador’s brutal civil war, WOLA’s Geoff  Thale offers some insightful commentary on the status of the case, as well as current justice issues in the country.  

·         Last week Honduras’ Supreme Electoral Tribunal validated the petition presented by the Frente Nacional de Resistencia Popular (FNRP), which sought official recognition for the creation of a new political party. The FNRP’s new party will be known as Libre, short for “Libertad y Refundacion.” The Honduras Culture and Politics blog offers a helpful rundown on the development of Libre as a political party and the challenges it faces, as well as an English translation of the party’s declaration of principles.

·         AFP claims that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has returned to political campaigning, saying that he has been “renewed" and is "determined to deepen" his "socialist revolution." The wire agency reports that Chavez has been especially active in recent days, attending various public events and announcing the creation of various new programs intended to benefit poor families, workers and retirees. Despite this, polling firm Datanalisis claims that his popularity rating has fallen from 58.9% to 51%, which likely reflects the latter half of a temporary wave of sympathy for the leader during his illness.

·         Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos recently offered some perspective into the rift between him and his predecessor (and former boss), Alvaro Uribe. In an interview with BBC Mundo, Santos claimed that Uribe has refused to answer several of his recent phone calls.

Mexico's Left Picks Controversial Candidate to Run Again for President

Mexico’s coalition of left-leaning parties, including the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), picked former 2006 presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to be their 2012 contender. Reuters reports that Lopez Obrador won an internal opinion poll which pitted him against popular Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebard. "The left divided will just fall into the precipice. I accept the results of this poll. I am loyal,” Ebrad said in a press conference, according to the LA Times.

For now it appears various left-leaning parties -- including the Labor Party and Movimiento Ciuadano -- are prepared to accept Lopez Obrador, rather than experience more infighting among the left. A previous internal election in the PRD was so dysfunctional the vote could not be completed in five states, due to trouble from an internal party faction, as Gancho documented at the time. The AP reports that Lopez Obrador said his first priority is uniting the Mexican left, marked by strife for much of this year, with some elements arguing for an alliance with President Felipe Calderon’s party, the PAN, in order to have a better chance in the 2012 presidential elections. As summarized by NACLA, much of the internal squabbling involved Ebard loyalists against Lopez Obrador supporters, a quarrel may not be put to rest even after Ebard announced he will not fight the survey’s outcome, and Lopez Obrador’s contention that he would have accepted an Ebard candidacy. Considering the PRD finished third in the Michoacan state elections held last Sunday, a state where they have held sway for a decade, the outlook for the left next year looks increasingly dim.

Uniting the left is only the first obstacle that awaits Obrador as he seeks to close the gap in the polls between him and Enrique Peña Nieto, the presumed candidate of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). According to one October poll, Peña Nieto would beat Obrador in a presidential election by 23 points. While Lopez Obrador remains the candidate of choice among Mexico’s fractured left, there are signs he will have trouble winning a broader majority, partly due to memories of the hotly contested 2006 presidential elections. Lopez Obrador accused Calderon of winning the vote by fraud, and his supporters carried out huge protests in Mexico City for weeks. These tactics -- which included blocking major city highway La Reforma -- did not prove popular, while President Calderon’s assault against the drug cartels, launched just 10 days after he assumed office, provided another distraction from Lopez Obrador’s complaints. Other strategies used by Lopez Obrador to raise his political profile -- such as convening a shadow government in Mexico City, which proposed its own set of laws and continued to meet even three years after the 2006 elections -- also may have damaged his reputation. According to one poll, 35% of Mexicans view the politician in a negative light.

According to the Wall Street Journal, an October survey shows the PRI has 40% support, compared with the PRD (16%) and the PAN (21%), with seven months to go until the presidential vote on July 1. More analysis on how the Lopez Obrador pick over Ebard makes little sense for the PRD from Bloggings by Boz.

News Briefs

• Guatemala approved the extradition of former president Alfonso Portillo to the U.S., where he is accused of money laundering, reports the AP. Blog Central American Politics notes that Portillo’s administration stands accused of embezzling more than $550 million between 2000 and 2004. The blog then argues that given the extent of Portillo’s misconduct, ElPeriodico’s criticism of the corruption seen under President Alvaro Colom, while welcome, should be taken in context. More on Portillo’s extradition from ElPeriodico and the BBC.

• Colombia’s largest rebel group the FARC announced the selection of their new top leader, Rodrigo Londoño Echeverry, alias “Timochenko,” once the group’s third-in-command and head of counter-intelligence. InSight Crime profiles the rebel leader, noting that he has more of a military background than slain commander “Alfonso Cano.” Timochenko once commanded the Middle Magdalena Bloc, the FARC faction which once had to do some of the toughest fighting with right-wing paramilitary groups in northern Colombia. Analysis from InSight Crime notes that Timochenko’s history of battling with the AUC may have contributed to his radicalism, and means the Colombian government will have little chance of successfully pressuring him to enter peace dialogues. Security forces may have a tougher time killing or capturing Timochenko, compared with Cano: he operates mainly in Venezuela, while the computer files seized from slain FARC commander Raul Reyes suggested that Timochenko has ties to corrupt elements in the Venezuelan security forces. Meanwhile, Verdad Abierta has a complimentary article on the government’s three-year hunt for Cano, and the painstaking efforts to infiltrate the FARC leader’s inner circle with undercover intelligence agents.

• The Washington Post reports on kidnapping in Venezuela with 1,050 cases recorded so far this year, according to government statistics. With 282 kidnappings recorded last year in Colombia, Venezuela now has the highest abduction rate in the region, the newspaper reports. Even Venezuela’s Chilean consul was reportedly shot during a recent attempted abduction, reports the Latin American Herald Tribune.

• The Cato Institute released a new policy analysis on Mexico’s drug conflict, concluding that the best way to undermine the power of Mexico’s criminal organizations is the “full legalization (including the manufacture and sale) of currently illegal drugs.”

• McClatchy profiles Nicaragua’s police chief, apparently enjoying the same levels of political and popular support as another comparative police commander in the hemisphere, Colombia’s Oscar Naranjo. Another profile from the LA Times focuses on a Roman Catholic nun who is also one of Mexico’s top human rights crusaders.

• Reuters has two enlightening reports on Guatemala’s new president Otto Perez. One examines his formative years in the military, where he emerged as a leader among the “tight-knit” group of officers who graduated in 1969. According to Reuters, Perez formed part of a relatively “progressive” group of officers who pushed the military towards reform and democracy. During the 1982 military dictatorship, Perez was arrested then quickly released, due to government fears that the progressive officer could plot against dictator General Efrain Rios Montt. The other Reuters report examines Perez’s human rights record when he commanded a military unit in one of Guatemala’s most conflict-heavy areas during the 1980s civil war.

• Time reports on a movement across Latin America which sees child labourers organizing and lobbying for their right to work under improved job conditions.

• The New York Times examines what the presidency of Brazil’s Dilma Rousseff means for women’s rights in the country, where women are now serving in several top cabinet positions and hold leading roles in many of Brazil’s most powerful businesses.

• Plaza Publica reports on the DEA elite squad operating in Guatemala, one of the military-trained commando units known as FAST units expanded from serving in Afghanistan to Latin America.

• The Latin American Herald Tribune summarizes the findings of Brazilian police as they continue security operations in Rio de Janeiro’s largest favela, Rocinha.

• Global Post on how Colombia’s free trade agreement with the U.S. could affect one of its primary export businesses: flowers.

• Foreign Policy examines the four presidential candidates who represent Venezuela’s opposition, noting that none have ties to the “old-line” parties which were so crucial to President Hugo Chavez’s rise to power.

Colombia’s President Open to Legalizing Cocaine

Colombia’s President Juan Manuel Santos told the UK’s Observer that he would “welcome” drug legalization, if a global consensus was reached on the matter. The newspaper says that “the president, elected last year, has emerged as the leading voice on the international political stage calling for a major rethink on the war on drugs.”

He told the newspaper that a new approach was needed to cut the profitability of the global drug trade; “If that means legalising, and the world thinks that's the solution, I will welcome it. I'm not against it."

It has become increasingly acceptable for public figures to speak in favor of legalizing cannabis, but Santos takes the more unusual step of explicitly stating his openness to the idea of depenalizing cocaine -- a brave political step given the notoriety of the drug. 

I would never legalise very hard drugs like morphine or heroin because in fact they are suicidal drugs. I might consider legalising cocaine if there is a world consensus because this drug has affected us most here in Colombia.

Santos has expressed his support for drug legalization many times over the years. In1998 he was a signatory to an open letter to the UN secretary general, calling for a rethink of the war on drugs. Last year he backed Mexican President Felipe Calderon’scalls for “debate” on the subject.

The Colombian president is well-placed to speak out in favor of legalization, having established his credentials both domestically and abroad as a hard-liner against drug trafficking groups like the FARC guerrillas, most recently with the high-profile slaying of rebel leader “Alfonso Cano.” This allows him to back legalization efforts without being seen as “soft” on drugs.

As he said to the Observer;

I've told President Calderon, 'You and I have a lot more authority to talk about this because our countries have spilled a lot of blood fighting drug traffickers and we should promote this discussion."

The liberal newspaper, sister to the Guardian, has praise for Santos, who it says is an “an increasingly influential figure in Latin American politics.” It calls him a “keen internationalist,” and lauds his “determined attempt” to cut poverty.

When the president came to office he was widely expected to follow closely in the footsteps of his predecessor, Alvaro Uribe -- a controversial figure who was credited with turning around the security situation in Colombia, but whose presidency was dogged by reports of abuse by the military and the intelligence service. Uribe’s passionate and sometimes overbearing style as a politician included a blanket opposition to illegal drug use, and he fought to overturn a law that depenalized the possession of “personal use” quantities of narcotics, arguing that tighter laws would help win the war on drugs. As he told a conference of U.S. mayors in 2009;

It is kind of difficult, dear Mayors, to win this battle. We are winning, but we have not won yet. It is pretty hard to win this battle if we do not increase control over consumption.

Santos, as Uribe’s defense minister, was closely involved with his policies. However, since taking the presidency, he has shown a markedly different approach, often appearing to choose pragmatism over ideology, and has clashed repeatedly with the still-influential former leader. As well as his liberal approach to drug laws, Santos has recognized the existence of an “armed conflict” in Colombia, and, as the Observer notes, he has worked to pass legislation returning land to displaced people, and to pay compensation to victims of the country’s conflict since the 1980s.

Santos could, then, be an influential voice in favor of the liberalization of drug laws. But as he points out;

This is a very sensitive political subject and there's a lot of hypocrisy there ... Many leaders, in private, they will say something and they tell me something and in public they say, "But I can't do this probably because my people will really crucify me."

News Briefs

• In a powerful editorial, the New York Times looks at the impact of Alabama’s new immigration legislation -- the “nation’s most oppressive immigration law,” it says, “whose express aim is misery and panic.” It argues that the law is based on bigotry, and that “states are expanding their power to hasten racial exclusion and family disintegration, to make a particular ethnic group of poor people disappear.” The NYT compares the response of migrant groups to the fight for civil rights on the part of African-Americans, reporting that community organizers are going from house to house to sign up volunteers for networks to protect the community, backed by the NAACP -- one of the leading voices in the black civil rights movement.

• Meanwhile the LA Times reports on the sharp decline of migration from Mexico into the U.S. Although the newspaper does note that harsh laws, like those in Alabama, are a deterrent for some, it points to the economic situation in the U.S. as the major cause of this decline, along with the danger of criminal gangs near the border, and tighter security on the U.S. side. It reports that net migration from Mexico to the U.S. is now close to zero, with many migrants now choosing to return to their home country, according to Mexican officials. 

• In an illustration of the challenges faced by those left behind when relatives try to make it to the U.S., the Miami Herald reports on a Honduran woman who was reunited with her migrant son following eight years without contact, after he left for Mexico. She found him in a prison in southern Mexico, after traveling to search for him, helped by a migrant non-profit organization.

• The Wall Street Journal has a long piece on the booming middle class in Latin America, a region where there has traditionally been little middle ground betweent the few rich and the many poor. It says that in the last 10 years 69 million people have climbed into the group that earns $5,000 to $8,100 a year. One memorable statistic it cites is that eight million Brazilians took their first plane ride in the past 12 months -- truly a sign of an upwardly mobile population.

• The Miami Herald criticizes President Michel Martelly’s plans to revive Haiti’s army, arguing that the country has far more pressing needs, amid a cholera epidemic, hundreds of thousands living in refugee camps, and a lack of basic services like electricity and education. It accuses Martelly, who came to power in May, of pursuing the measure in order to reward former army men who backed his presidential campaign, and warns that there is a danger of a return to the abuses under the dictatorships of recent decades. The newspaper suggests that, if Martelly is concerned about security, he should focus on building up the police force.

• In the wake of the death of Mexico’s interior minister in a helicopter crash, which gave rise to speculation that it could be the work of drug cartels, InSight Crime counts down the top 10 “narco-conspiracy” theories emanating from that country, from the suspicious death of Amado Carrillo Fuentes, alias the "Lord of the Skies," to the idea that the U.S.’s DEA is in fact the world’s biggest drug cartel.

• A strange update on the story of the deadly crash comes from the LA Times blog, which says that Mexican authorities have detained a man over a Tweet he sent the day before the incident, which refers to the death almost three years ago of another government minister in similar circumstances; "I haven't left work so early since the fall of Mouriño's plane," it said. "Be careful, flying officials." While this sentiment seems fairly innocuous and unlikely to be linked to any murder plot, a more sinister Twitter message, also sent before the crash was reported on by the Huffington Post; "Tomorrow on 11/11/11, you'll have a Secretary falling from the sky ... avoid reform."

• The Washington Post has a photo essay on members of the gang Mara Salvatrucha, or MS-13, titled “Faces of MS-13.” The loose-knit collection of gangs grew out of Los Angeles and has spread to many countries in Central America, particularly El Salvador and Honduras. Members are often heavily tattooed to signal their allegiance to the group.

• The Associated Press reports on the win of the long-ruling PRI party in the Mexican state of Michoacan, which held local elections Sunday, in a victory which suggests that party could be set to win back power in next year’s presidential elections.

• Just four months into his presidency, Peru’s Ollanta Humala has lost one of his vice presidents, who was forced to step down after a scandal over abuse of influence that has been brewing for some weeks.

• In Colombia, a former hostage of the FARC rebel group has spoken out against a film being made about her son, who was conceived and born while she was in captivity. Clara Rojas, held prisoner for six years alongside former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt, has refused to reveal the identity of the father of her son, who was taken from her by the rebels while he was a baby and given to a farming family. The incident caused great outrage in Colombia, and the FARC later released the child, who was reunited with Rojas when she was freed. Rojas says the proposed film is “abusive” towards her family.

Rio Officials 'Pacify' Largest Favela with 3,000 Troops

About 3,000 police officers and soldiers raided the largest of Rio de Janeiro’s favelas on Sunday as part of the government’s plans to “pacify” the most dangerous slums in advance of the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics. As the AP and WSJ report, the massive operation, which took place in the Rochinha favela and involved elements from the Brazilian Army and Navy as well as police, was a resounding success. Despite the presence of tanks, armored vehicles and helicopters, not a single shot was fired in the maneuver.

Officials claim that much of this success was due to intelligence gained after capture of Antonio Francisco Bonfim Lopes, Rocinha’s top drug kingpin. Lopes was arrested on Thursday at a roadside police checkpoint on the favela’s outskirts. According to the BBC, the drug trafficker had been attempting to flee Rocinha in anticipation of yesterday’s raid. When stopped, Lopes’ driver allegedly tried to claim diplomatic immunity, saying he was a diplomat for the Democratic Republic of Congo. After this failed to convince police, he then tried to bribe them with about $570,000. This too failed, prompting the authorities to search the vehicle, resulting in the discovery of Lopes hiding in its trunk.  

But while officials are chalking up the Rocinha occupation as a major victory in the country’s struggle to restore the rule of law to impoverished urban areas, others are unconvinced about the state of progress in the much-lauded “pacification” efforts. As the New York Times reports, Rocinha has a relatively peaceful reputation compared to other favelas in Rio, and some critics claim that the slum was merely chosen as an easy target. MercoPress adds to this criticism, noting that the other side of the security program, which is supposed to involve the deployment of specially-trained community police and increased access to public services, has been neglected in many favelas. According to the news agency:

“A year after a similar operation to occupy a large slum called Alemao, the favela has yet to receive a community police force as the security forces struggle to train enough officers. “Most of the occupations have taken place in slums close to Rio's wealthier areas, leading to criticism that the program is aimed mostly at supporting the city's real-estate boom and preparing for the sports events. Huge slums in more distant areas are still controlled by gangs or militia groups made up of rogue off-duty police and fire-fighters.”

News Briefs:

·         The AP takes a look at the result of Sunday’s gubernatorial elections in Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s home state of Michoacan. In addition to being Calderon’s birthplace, it is also the state where the president launched his armed campaign against drug cartels in late 2006. For these two reasons, the stakes are high for all three candidates running for office. With 93 percent of the ballots counted, El Universal reports that PRI candidate Fausto Vallejo Figueroa is leading with 35 percent of the votes, followed by the president's sister, Luisa Maria "Cocoa" Calderon, with 33 percent. Silvano Aureoles Conejo, the PRD candidate, is trailing with 29 percent. Meanwhile, the L.A. Times has an interesting overview of the influence of drug gangs on elections in the state.

·         After the helicopter crash which killed Interior Minister Francisco Blake Mora on Friday, investigators have claimed that engine failure can be ruled out as a cause. Still, officials are not suspecting any foul play in the crash, which they claim was likely caused by a pilot’s miscalculation.  On Sunday it was announced that the U.S. would be sending a team from its National Transportation Safety Board to assist in the investigation.

·         AP profiles Maria Lourdes Afiuni, a former Venezuelan judge who is facing corruption charges for freeing a banker from prison because he had awaited trial for more than three years on charges of violating the country’s currency exchange controls. As the wire agency notes, Aifuni’s case is “something of a smoking gun for their argument that he is using the judiciary to harass his opponents.” Human rights advocates around the region have claimed that Aifuni is the victim of politicized charges, and even noted leftist Noam Chomsky has called for them to be dropped.

·         The kidnapping of Washington Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos in Venezuela ended in a hail of gunfire on Friday, as Venezuelan police commandos raided the site were the baseball player had been kept. The New York Times says officials arrested four Venezuelan nationals in the operation, but are still looking for four Colombians who managed to escape.

·         The Wall Street Journal examines Panama’s plans to open a new lane on the Panama Canal which will allow larger ships to carry three times the cargo currently carried by the vessels using the current channel. According to the paper, the lane is set to open in 2014, and could have serious implications for the world economy. With the price of sending cargo through the canal set to become  far cheaper, ports along the eastern seaboard and Gulf Coast of the U.S. could see a significant uptick in traffic.

·         WOLA’s Vicki Gass has written a compelling argument in the Huffington Post for more U.S. aid to El Salvador in light of the disastrous flooding that has occurred recently in the Central American country. According to Gass, the flooding has caused $840 million in economic loss, hitting 181 municipalities in all 14 departments in the country.

·         The Latin American Herald Tribune and EFE both report that the number of lynchings in Guatemala have increased 500 percent since 2004. However, Mike Allison at Central American Politics points out that this figure only relates to attempted lynchings. According to the Prensa Libre, the number of deaths caused by lynchings has risen from 4 in 2004 to 47 so far this year, an increase of 1100 percent.

·         The Miami Herald claims that remittances are on the rise again in the U.S., after the financial crisis caused a significant slump over the past few years. The paper cites two reports by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the Bank of Mexico, which point to improvements in the money transfer industry as the cause.

WOLA Report Calls Colombia a 'Cautionary Tale' For Mexico

Thursday, WOLA released a new report on how lessons from “Plan Colombia” can guide future U.S. policy in Mexico. The report warns against creating too close of a parallel between the Mexico and Colombia drug conflicts, then goes on to argue that repeating the Plan Colombia model in Mexico “would be a very a bad idea.”

The report presents six recommendations for overall U.S. strategy, beginning with the mandate that the U.S. must first “clean its own house” and prioritize domestic drug reduction efforts, as well as efforts to stem gun trafficking to Mexico. The report also warns against an “uncritical embrace” of the partner government, citing Colombia’s “false positives” scandal as an example of U.S. policymakers assuming a “timid” stance towards military misconduct.

The final six recommendations focus on human rights policy and are an interesting compliment to the conclusions laid out by Human Rights Watch earlier this week. WOLA notes that the judicial system is the Achilles Heel for both Mexico and Colombia, where cases move slowly and convictions are few. In order to speed things up, WOLA argues that U.S. policymakers should establish clearer benchmarks for how the judicial sector in these partner countries should pursue reform; and be more aggressive about withholding aid if these benchmarks are not met.

According to WOLA, among Colombia’s most important lessons for Mexico in terms of U.S. policy is the usage of human rights conditions as leverage. Pressure from the U.S. State Department led to a key reform in Colombia which allows military officials to be tried in civilian, rather than military, courts. This is one of the few examples of progress in judicial reform in Colombia, WOLA argues, and holds great relevance for Mexico, where human rights crimes are rarely prosecuted in military courts. Should the U.S. become more aggressive about withholding aid if human rights conditions are not met, this is a surefire way to ensure both Mexico and Colombia can more effectively pursue their security goals, the report concludes.

News Briefs

• In Brazil, protesters in Rio de Janeiro rallied against a proposed law that would change the way proceeds from the oil industry are divvied up between states. As the Latin American Herald Tribune reports, producer states argue they should retain the bulk of the profits from oil royalties, which includes the huge proceeds expected to flow from Brazil’s newly discovered, deep-sea reserves. Similar legislation passed earlier this year in Colombia sparked widespread complaints in oil-rich departments, where political representatives argued that the law would drain vital funds from state budgets. It looks as though Brazil, set to become one of the five greatest oil producers by 2020, may face a similar battle over distribution of oil revenues. Rio de Janeiro state alone is expected to lose some $29 billion if the lower house of Brazilian Congress approves the revenues law. BBC Mundo notes that Brazil’s growing oil wealth is partly responsible for its expanding middle class, and profiles the social and economic changes accompanying this phenomenon.

• Analysis from the AP notes that the Zetas have all but launched a concerted campaign against their perceived enemies on the Internet. Business Week has another take.

• Even though President Santos said Wednesday that he would withdraw an unpopular education reform bill, Bogota still saw large students protests the next day. The debate is an echo of the ongoing unrest in Chile: the government argues that the bill contains desperately needed reforms, the opposition maintains it will basically privatize and bankrupt the system. Santos said he will withdraw the bill if students cease protests and return to class, although it is possible he may try to push on with the reforms next year. But Santos has little to gain from such a battle with students, teachers, labor unions and even some elements of his own party, according to La Silla Vacia.

• The kidnapping of a U.S. baseball player in Venezuela is proof of the nation’s ongoing violent crime crisis, argues Time.The LA Times notes the Wilson Ramos case is not the first time sportsmen have been targeted by kidnappers, although the AP says this is the first time a Major League player has been abducted.

• Offering up analysis of the FARC post-“Alfonso Cano,” the Economist argues that one scenario may involve the guerrillas breaking up into smaller gangs and then merging with the BACRIMs. Yesterday also saw significant court rulings for two men who played a historical role in the Colombian conflict: the rebel who killed top FARC commander “Ivan Rios” in 2008 and cut off Rios’ hand as proof of death, and one of the top commanders of paramilitary group the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), who, significantly, was convicted in the U.S. for drug crimes, not for crimes related to massacres and other abuses committed in Colombia. Verdad Abierta provides more background on the AUC leader.

• In more coverage of Nicaragua post-elections, Upside Down World reports from a rural town where residents have benefited greatly from President Ortega’s poverty relief programs, while an opinion piece from Confidencial summarizes some of the top questions now faced by the opposition.

• In a meeting with the Argentine ambassador to the U.S., President Christina Fernandez encouraged a rebooting of relations between the two countries, reports Mercosur.

• An opinion piece for the Guardian argues that naming President Felipe Calderon as the 2012 chair of the G20 is an error, as the president “is a possible war criminal.” The New Yorker offers up similarly critical commentary not just on Calderon, but on the U.S. role in the conflict.

• Police arrested a gang leader in Rio de Janeiro, in anticipation of the police takeover of the city’s largest favela planned for this Sunday. More from the Wall Street Journal.