Market Study to Reshape Bolivian Coca Production

The Bolivian government has published the results of a long-awaited study (.pdf) on the size of its legal coca market. While the release has been widely reported, many outlets have overlooked the main story: this report has been pending for nine years, and will likely have major implications for the future of legal coca production in the country.

The report has been in the works since a 2004 agreement between the government and coca cultivators to adjust coca limits based on an accurate survey of the licit market. Its impending release was mentioned in the 2005 UNODC Coca Monitoring Survey, and in every subsequent UN annual report after that. In 2007 the European Union put up over a million dollars to support the survey, and it was allegedly completed in 2010. Over the next three years the government continued to delay its publication, however, claiming that it was conducting unspecified “complementary studies.”

But there were political factors behind the delay as well. Cocalero unions are a significant source of political support for President Evo Morales’ Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party, and results suggesting a major reduction in coca would doubtlessly face opposition. In fact, months after the study was commissioned the government authorized a temporary increase in coca cultivation (of 3,200 hectares) beyond the constitutionally-allowed maximum of 12,000 hectares. MAS lawmakers have since proposed several bills which would increase this limit, the most high-profile of which would raise it to 20,000 hectares.

The results of the study do not support this move, however. The legal market of coca for traditional and medicinal uses requires a maximum of only 14,705 hectares. InSight Crime points out that this figure is still far larger than estimates by government critics, including Juan del Granado of the opposition Movement Without Fear (MSM) party, who recently claimed he saw an earlier version of the report which put the market size at around 6,000 hectares.

Interestingly, La Razon notes that the report found that the licit coca market grew by 15 percent from 2006 to 2012. This is likely a result of Morales’ attempts to boost demand for coca both domestically and abroad. But even if this trend continued apace, legal demand would only stand at 16,910 hectares by 2018, still just two-thirds of the 25,300 hectares currently produced  in Bolivia. Clearly, raising demand alone will not dry up the black market for coca.

Now that the legal market estimate has been published, the Morales administration faces some tough choices.  There is no justifiable reason to boost the legal coca quota to 20,000 hectares, as the president’s supporters advocate. Like it or not, coca growers’ unions will have to scale back cultivation, and the government now has a benchmark figure to use as a guide.

Most of the reduction will likely have to occur in the Yungas region of La Paz Department, which alone accounted for 67 percent of total coca cultivation nationwide in 2012, according to UN statistics. The area has long been the epicenter of traditional coca cultivation in Bolivia, and is considered a MAS stronghold. Readjusting coca cultivation here will require delicate negotiation, as it could pit the ruling party against its base.

Likely because of this, earlier this month the MAS announced that it would postpone a debate over Law 1008 (the 1988 “Law on the Regime Applicable to Coca and Controlled Substances,” which sets the 12,000 hectare limit) until after the October 2014 general elections.

News Briefs

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